Nothing against Tuohy, it seems that a sub 15 will not easily happen for her. Her form is getting worse, cannot kick at the end when running a faster pace. Looking at her past 5000m races, she has only ran 15:10s for three outings.
Nothing against Tuohy, it seems that a sub 15 will not easily happen for her. Her form is getting worse, cannot kick at the end when running a faster pace. Looking at her past 5000m races, she has only ran 15:10s for three outings.
Do you think Nico Young has peaked? After all he couldn't break 13:10 for like the 3rd race in a row.
Or do you go it is an early season race where people might be in so-so form for running fast on the track?
Besides didn't she just dust someone that is in like 14:40 shape(or whatever absurd made up number fans were posting for PC )?
Obviously running on tired legs and body!! Let her rest and recover first from all the running she did this year, she pretty much won her every race this year. Give her a break from all these posts too.
So what? This is after XC season, she has a right to be tired.
It's very unlikely that for someone who runs 4:06 15:12 at 20 15:00 should be the ceiling. While I doubt that she will make jumps like Schweizer or Purrier dis in the last 3 years (partly because Tuohy was/is so much faster already younger but also with professionalized training and comparably high mileage), she should go sub 15 in 2023. She is more of a distance type and 4:06 is easily fast enough for 14:40s for a distance runner type. By similar reasoning people overestimate how much faster a frontrunner type would run with pacers (cf. Ayana, Klosterhalfen and others who ran PBs (or very close to them) basically solo).
Nothing against Tuohy, it seems that a sub 15 will not easily happen for her. Her form is getting worse, cannot kick at the end when running a faster pace. Looking at her past 5000m races, she has only ran 15:10s for three outings.
Tuohy is only 20 years old. She broke 15:20 for the first time only back in April 22. Why would it would come easily within 8 months of that? Especially considering no college US woman in history has run sub 15 at her age. Lisa Uhl is the only collegiate woman in history to run sub 15 and she did it at 22/23, outdoors, in the off season (July).
She is more of a distance type and 4:06 is easily fast enough for 14:40s for a distance runner type.
Really? You think Daniels is that far off? Maybe we should perform a quick analysis, comparing 1500m and 5000m PB’s to Daniels, of what you call distance types. Sisson and Huddle are ‘distance types’, correct?
So what? This is after XC season, she has a right to be tired.
It's very unlikely that for someone who runs 4:06 15:12 at 20 15:00 should be the ceiling. While I doubt that she will make jumps like Schweizer or Purrier dis in the last 3 years (partly because Tuohy was/is so much faster already younger but also with professionalized training and comparably high mileage), she should go sub 15 in 2023. She is more of a distance type and 4:06 is easily fast enough for 14:40s for a distance runner type. By similar reasoning people overestimate how much faster a frontrunner type would run with pacers (cf. Ayana, Klosterhalfen and others who ran PBs (or very close to them) basically solo).
Yes based on a 4:06 at her age and her strength a 14:40s range 5K is very reasonable. She will get there.
I'm being realistic, cutting 15 seconds from 15:14 is not the same as cutting 15 seconds from a 15:30.
It's silly to predict a lifetime ceiling based on an athlete her age running 3 similar times within an 8 month period, especially when the times are NCAA leading and one of them won her a title.
She did look pretty tired at BU and not her best. I am not going to read too much into that; everyone saw her close the last 2k of the XC race, uphill.
I think it’s difficult to project the ceiling of someone who is only (checks notes) 20 years old. Molly Huddle didn’t run under 15 minutes until she was 25. At Tuohy’s age, her PB was 15:32.
She is more of a distance type and 4:06 is easily fast enough for 14:40s for a distance runner type.
Really? You think Daniels is that far off? Maybe we should perform a quick analysis, comparing 1500m and 5000m PB’s to Daniels, of what you call distance types. Sisson and Huddle are ‘distance types’, correct?
Nico has cut 40 seconds since high school while Tuohy has only cut 20 seconds. Rodenfels embarrassed Tuohy in the race and she was a D3 runner who had a 5:25 mile PR in high school. Tuohy is not improving at a rate that indicates any faster than 4:00/15:00 in her lifetime.
Nico has cut 40 seconds since high school while Tuohy has only cut 20 seconds. Rodenfels embarrassed Tuohy in the race and she was a D3 runner who had a 5:25 mile PR in high school. Tuohy is not improving at a rate that indicates any faster than 4:00/15:00 in her lifetime.
Rodenfels did great, and looked really strong.
She also ran 15:08, exact same time as last year. Since you are so good at predicting ceilings, what is rodenfels ceiling, based on the two times?