NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

West Ranch CA won the Bronze race this year

Oakdale did RunningLane last year

I think the American Fork girls team would have placed in the top 15 or top 10

Speed ratings

North Allegheny PA and Assumption KY girls teams really surprised everyone with their top 10 finishes

Top 5*

That means that so far, Herriman is returning a 181 (tang), 186 (manwaring), 186 (ogomo), and 189 (tang). I think they have a soph in the 170s this year too, if they find a 5-7 then they’re set

North Allegheny - 5th

Assumption - 7th

I wouldn’t be surprised if they at least find a 5th. Doug Soles always seems to have someone come out of nowhere. There’s also track season for people to step up

20th seems like a low bar since it's only accounting for a couple AQ teams that weren't keeping up that day.

On the boys side, IMO the SW had 5 teams that could have likely finished in the Top 15 and about 13 teams that could have been strong contenders to finish Top 20 just based on the NXR race alone (and I'm guessing a small handful of teams of a similar were missing from the NXR field).

On the girls side, I think American Fork would have challenged for a Top 16 spot. Chapparral and Fossil Ridge could have been Top 20 based on NXR.

The Tangs from Herriman have really stepped up. Last year their PRs were in the mid-16:40s and were midpack JV, and this year they took 34th and 73rd at NXN.

And freshman year (2021) they were running 5k’s in the 19s and 20s.

In this podcast, Soles made a comment about that soph you are talking about and says that he approaches workouts very well and that he is going to be very special

Dude should have run Foot LockerWest. 10th qualifier to nationals was a 187. Wouldn’t that have been something if a JV dude would have qualified!

Why I think these teams were underrated before the season started:

Franklin Oregon: Only returned 2 guys from last year’s top 7 and did not finish high at NXR. Many returners stepped up during track though.

Niwot: Did not make NXN last year and lost 4 seniors, but many people stepped up during track. Also brought in a freshman that can keep up with Culpepper, and also a transfer from another school

Plainfield North: On paper, some teams in the Midwest were overlooked because originally, DGN and Carmel were clear cuts to qualify for NXN. But Carmel choked at NXR so this gave an NXN spot to another Midwest team.

Montgomery Bell Academy: added 2 freshmen to their scoring 5. Farragut and McCallie ran an off race, and Calvert Hall probably peaked too early and had some guys injured.

Monroe Woodbury (ranked #9 in the preseason TullyRunners NY rankings): did not make NXN last year and lost their 1-3. But everyone stepped up and helped this team win NXR. Region isn’t strong enough to have nationally ranked teams.

Auburn (ranked #5 in the preseason TullyRunners NY rankings): Finished 6th at NXR NY last year. Region isn’t strong enough to have a nationally ranked team.

Why I think these teams were underrated before the season started:

Tatnall - added 2 transfers which made this team from 3-deep last year to 5-deep this year.

Union Catholic - added some freshmen to their scoring 5.

Santiago Corona - took 9th in the D1 state meet last year, but returned 4 of their top 5 and added a transfer who ended up as their #2.

Lincoln - Took 7th at NXR last year. But added a freshman who is their #1

Downers Grove North - took 9th at NXR last year and lost their #2

Wayzata - lost almost the entire team from last year. But they reloaded well enough to bring this team back to NXN. Region was not strong enough to have a ranked team

Olathe West - qualified last year and lost 2 seniors, but region was not strong enough to have a ranked team

Back in 2008, in MN, there was a guy named Jakub Zivec, who had to race everything JV because he attended his Minnesota high school without being part of a recognized international exchange program.

He was running in the 15s in the JV races. But he took 2nd at NXN and 5th in the Footlocker finals.

More on this in this thread

I’m not surprised that Nathan Neil did so well this season. Last year was his first year of XC. Many big jumps are made from first to second year of XC

I wonder how the Herriman B team would have done at RunningLane