I just realized NXN is in 12 hours, so instead of studying for my exams, I thought I'd see how sub-4 HS guys do at XC historically since this is the first time there's been 1 (or 2) competing. Since Webb:
2011: Lukas Verzbicas ran 3:59 after winning Footlocker twice + NXN. I haven't looked into him before frfr and I'm realizing now this dude was crazy. I would've been so pressed if I'd been a fan back then and seen him leave Oregon (right after Centro just won a world medal too) to train for the triathlon. Shoutout to Kessler for picking running over climbing.
2015: Matthew Maton and Grant Fisher both ran 3:59.38. Fisher won FL 2x and Maton went 3rd junior year and 19th senior year to pull out the Cooper Teare double-double: come into nationals as one of the favorites behind the reigning champ, then get absolutely clowned on in your last XC race. Say oh well, and L is an L, and proceed crush it in track season. For Teare it was a national title, and for Maton it was that sub-4.
2016: Drew Hunter 3:57 and Michael Slagowski 3:59. Hunter took the W like always at Footlocker, and I'm not even sure if Slagowski ever made nationals? It says he placed 45th at NXR his senior year. Bro had a 15:21 5k PR which is like a minute slower than Hunter's was, so big shoutout to him for getting that 3:59.
2017: Reed Brown 3:59 paired with the classic FL W. No drama, just guys being dudes.
2020: Daschbach 3:59 paired with the classic injury before nationals. He did run 14:14 to beat Cole Sprout earlier in the season, so definitely no slouch. No shot he was beating Nico though. I'd also bet that Nico could've gone sub-4 if covid hadn't shut down his season. He was like Verzbicas but better.*
2021: Hobbs Kessler 3:34 1500 paired with the classic national shutdown caused by a pandemic. I read that in 1918 the running community was up in arms because Nike cancelled NTN because of the flu pandemic.** Kinda crazy how history repeats itself. I don't know if he'd win nationals, but he'd have run really well if there was one given that he ran faster than Fisher did on the State course. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt since he's a climber and that's the only exercise I enjoy outside of running.
2022: Colin Sahlman 3:56 paired with a 14:03 win like the GOAT he is.*** A lotta parallels to Drew Hunter. A coach that LR hates, sub-4 indoor mile, XC natty win, pretty equal speed ratings, 1:48 800s. Sahlman's form looks so much nicer though, except his kick is reminiscent of Cole Hocker. There's also 4 other guys who broke 4, 2 of which are back this year.
Precedent shows that if you're on track to break 4, you're probably gonna win XC nationals. This was only not true if 1) There was a pandemic, or 2) Someone else broke 4 and ran faster than you.**** There is an interesting trend though, where no HSer has ever gone into XC as a sub-4 guy and won nationals. Ryun didn't do it, and since Lex/Leo is gonna win tomorrow, it looks like that's gonna continue.
*I will not elaborate
**I won't source this claim, you can look it up
***Stay mad losers lmao I will defend NP till the day I die
****Fisher and Maton technically tied, but I like Fisher, so in my heart he ran faster