Understanding that Boston is heavily dictated by conditions…
Assume average conditions for Boston.
50 degrees and no wind…what’s the time?
(Can’t wait to see him take a crack just 6 months after his WR and not well after he’s washed up like I’d expected)
With the increasing attention on Kenyans doping, he might be forced to do this one clean. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the 2:07-2:08 range
He'll shoot for sub-2:03, obviously. He'll get it.
Knowing Boston, it will somehow be 80 degrees F by the mid point of the race and he'll get a 2:08
If it's one of those years with pleasant temperatures and a 30 mph tailwind, about 1:55. If it's the year with the snowstorm and headwinds, between 2:18 and dnf.
Unfortunately I signed up before Kipchoge, so the weather will be atrocious. Sorry.
His time will also depend on fast the group will go during the first half. Going by his non-paced marathons, he won't push the pace until mile 20ish/Heartbreak Hill.
If he pulls off the win, he will be in very rare company. Only one man in history (Gelindo Bordin) has won both Boston and the Olympic marathons. I believe he will run only fast enough to win.
The range of possibilities is wide.
Weather like 2011 when Mutai ran 2:03? EK runs under 2 hours.
Weather like 2018's deluge? He may DNF.
Average weather with no significant weather extremes, I think he runs 2:04 in a tactical race. GREAT field to push the pace throughout.
Kipchoge is probably done running WRs. His goal now is to win all the WMMs and 2024 OGs. He will treat Boston like a championship race, run with the pack and drop everyone like they were hobby joggers the last 5k. 2:07-8 is about what would be needed to do that at Boston. Big tail wind would bring that time down to 2:03-04. Head wind 2:11-12.
Precious Roy wrote:
Kipchoge is probably done running WRs. His goal now is to win all the WMMs and 2024 OGs. He will treat Boston like a championship race, run with the pack and drop everyone like they were hobby joggers the last 5k. 2:07-8 is about what would be needed to do that at Boston. Big tail wind would bring that time down to 2:03-04. Head wind 2:11-12.
he could totally run 2:00:30 at berlin with better pacing but you’re probably right. shame he won’t be the first officially under 2:01 after doing it 5 years ago