I'd tend to go with the conventional wisdom that Dems will hold the Senate narrowly and lose the House. With average candidates Rs would win control of the Senate this cycle by a few seats.
Possible, but I have a lot of healthy skepticism toward any attempt to read the tea leaves. Just curious, why do you think Dems will win if turnout is high?
For the record, 538 does not do polling. They aggregate polling and give odds on outcomes based on that.
While people criticize 528 for "getting it wrong" on Trump, the fact is that they gave him better odds (29%) on election day than anyone else. Others gave him 15%, 8%... even 2%.
If you say that something will happen nearly a third of the time and then it happens, you didn't get it so horribly wrong, really. You said it might happen, and then it did.
What is the deal with Rojo thinking he knows better than everyone else on almost every subject? Narcissism? Mania? Frontal lobotomy?
Affluenza, Narcissim, and developmental disorder. Just watch one of the LetsRun podcast videos. Within 10 seconds of Rojo speaking you know that something is wrong
Rojo, there is 100% probability that Nate Silver is smarter than you
Close to 100% that he's better at stats than me although my lone A+ at Princeton was in stats.
But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?
PS. The whole reason I started this thread was even if he thinks the Senate is 98% correlated with the House, it would drop his percentage by 1%. He's not dropping it at all. So I guess in his mind it's at least 99% correlated.
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight became famous as he once predicted all 50 states in a presidential election right. ESPN gave him a ton of money but it now seems that the site is never right.
I was looking at it this morning.
He says there is a 46% chance the GOP takes the Senate. He says there is an 82% chance they win the House.
So what are the odds that the GOP also takes the House and the Senate?
He says it's also 46%. WHAT?
That makes no sense. I know the two aren't totally independent events but still that's crazy. It would have to be less than 46%.
The way I read that is he thinks there's a 100% chance the GOP takes the hosue but won't admit it.
For the record, 538 does not do polling. They aggregate polling and give odds on outcomes based on that.
While people criticize 528 for "getting it wrong" on Trump, the fact is that they gave him better odds (29%) on election day than anyone else. Others gave him 15%, 8%... even 2%.
Rojo, there is 100% probability that Nate Silver is smarter than you
Close to 100% that he's better at stats than me although my lone A+ at Princeton was in stats.
But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?
I gave you the benefit of the doubt on your OP post, but right here, you outed yourself as someone who has no idea what being smart even is, leave alone probability and stats.
Close to 100% that he's better at stats than me although my lone A+ at Princeton was in stats.
But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?
I gave you the benefit of the doubt on your OP post, but right here, you outed yourself as someone who has no idea what being smart even is, leave alone probability and stats.