i think he runs 2:10
i think he runs 2:10
Decliner27 wrote:
i think he runs 2:10
2:10 or DNF are the only answers
2:07:51
DNF. Perfect course, but his time has come and gone.
Union Street wrote:
2:07:51
if that's the case does he beat Mantz
Is Mantz actually going to run NY?
he talked about it on Strava he said he was planning on it
His average marathon is 2:09, but his average course he's run on is easier than New York's course. However he was able to run 2:09 at Atlanta, which was statistically a more challenging course than New York. So I'd say 2:09 is a realistic prediction, 2:08 is probably top end.
In the most recent five New York Marathon races, the winning times have been between 2:05:59-2:10:53. The median winning time was 2:08:22. A 2:09:30 in those races would have finished 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 5th... So if Rupp runs at his normal level (not a bad race), he will probably be top 5, realistic chance for about 3rd, and a small chance at the win. He tends to DNF when races aren't very great, and about a 25%-30% of his races are not great in the last 5 years or so. So I'd say 60% chance he finishes top 5, 30% top 3, 10% chance he wins, 20% he DNF, 15% he finishes 6-10, 5% he finishes and is worse than 10th.
Obviously part of the 60% of being top 5 includes the chances of winning and being top 3, so don't come at me that the math is wrong.
as best as he can
This is Jim Kiler wrote:
DNF. Perfect course, but his time has come and gone.
This. A better bet would be if he completes the race.
2:05:40
I BELIEVE
Who cares how fast he runs. Will he have fun? I think so!
Hot Takes wrote:
His average marathon is 2:09, but his average course he's run on is easier than New York's course. However he was able to run 2:09 at Atlanta, which was statistically a more challenging course than New York. So I'd say 2:09 is a realistic prediction, 2:08 is probably top end.
In the most recent five New York Marathon races, the winning times have been between 2:05:59-2:10:53. The median winning time was 2:08:22. A 2:09:30 in those races would have finished 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 5th... So if Rupp runs at his normal level (not a bad race), he will probably be top 5, realistic chance for about 3rd, and a small chance at the win. He tends to DNF when races aren't very great, and about a 25%-30% of his races are not great in the last 5 years or so. So I'd say 60% chance he finishes top 5, 30% top 3, 10% chance he wins, 20% he DNF, 15% he finishes 6-10, 5% he finishes and is worse than 10th.
Obviously part of the 60% of being top 5 includes the chances of winning and being top 3, so don't come at me that the math is wrong.
Go Rupp!
Rupp and Mantz both in?
Exciting
Since NY usually doesn't have rabbits, the opening half is around 1:04 to 1:05 unless the weather sucks. If they follow this pattern and Rupp's back is okay, I say he runs 2:08 to 2:09. If his back flares up then 2:10-12 to DNF.
I think the old man still has a few tricks left up his sleeve
carmine9 wrote:
Rupp and Mantz both in?
Exciting
Just what they want you to think
He sits on the starting line prior to the gun and Fauble's head explodes. Rupp goes on to run 2:07:52 for third place. Fauble runs headless on pure hate and finishes in 2:08:01 for fourth.
a fan wrote:
I think the old man still has a few tricks left up his sleeve
Is Alberto still involved? What kind of tricks is Alberto considering?
Rupp is a Carbon Cyborg wrote:
2:05:40
I BELIEVE