Women’s 2022 ACC Cross Country Championship Possible Outcome

TuohyFan wrote:

Possible Outcome for 2022 Women’s ACC Cross Country Championship

Now that the pre-season is complete and we can take a look back at how these women have competed across the country, on various courses and conditions, the championship season is upon us! How will they fare in Virginia on the rolling grass hills of Panorama Farms?

NOTE: Course record at Panorama Farms appears to be 19:43.80 by Liv Westphal from Boston College back in 2014.

My ideas for placements and reasons why:

1 NC State (with an estimated score of 18)
2 North Carolina
3 Notre Dame
4 Syracuse
5 Florida State

1 Katelyn Tuohy SO NC State
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 8:54 U20 3000m Record. 4:06 1500m speed.
NCAA 5000m Champ, Recent Nuttycombe Champ w/ 8th fastest ever on that course
2nd @ ACC’s in 2021 behind Chmiel

2 Kelsey Chmiel JR NC State
15:27 track 5k, 19:34 XC 6k, 8:59 3k speed
ACC Defending Champion

3 Samantha Bush JR NC State(Possible 7th)
15:35 track 5k, 19:52 XC 6k, 8:54 3000m backed up with 2:04 800 speed
8th @ ACC’s in 2021. This is assuming she’s at her best come race day.

4 Sydney Seymour SR NC State (Possible 8th)
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell. This is assuming she’s at her best come race day.

5 Brynn Brown SO North Carolina (Possible 3rd)
19:38.9 XC 6k @ Paul Short Run recently for 6th
*She is coming into this race as the 3rd best returner from last year, but others have just outperformed her thus far in the 2022 season
6th @ ACC’s in 2021

6 Olivia Markezich JR Notre Dame
19:38 XC 6k.
18th @ Nuttycombe recently, 8th @ Joe Piane with some serious big-guns in that race
12th @ ACC’s in 2021

7 Amina Maatoug SO Duke
19:34 XC 6k @ Paul Short Run recently
28th @ Nuttycombe recently, 2nd at Paul Short Run (1.6 seconds behind Kemboi)

8 Marlee Starliper FR NC State (Possible 4th)
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend. I’m hoping that with 1 month since Joe Piane, that she’ll have gained a lot of the last touch of fitness she appeared to be lacking.

9 Savannah Roark SO Syracuse
Her 20:37.3 for 6th @ the Cowboy Jamboree is impressive.
23rd @ ACC’s in 2021

10 Savannah Shaw SR NC State
15:33 track 5k, senior, will be trying to show she’s capable of making the squad for Nationals

Thoughts?

FastMcCabe wrote:

TuohyFan wrote:

Possible Outcome for 2022 Women’s ACC Cross Country Championship

Now that the pre-season is complete and we can take a look back at how these women have competed across the country, on various courses and conditions, the championship season is upon us! How will they fare in Virginia on the rolling grass hills of Panorama Farms?

NOTE: Course record at Panorama Farms appears to be 19:43.80 by Liv Westphal from Boston College back in 2014.

My ideas for placements and reasons why:

1 NC State (with an estimated score of 18)
2 North Carolina
3 Notre Dame
4 Syracuse
5 Florida State

1 Katelyn Tuohy SO NC State
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 8:54 U20 3000m Record. 4:06 1500m speed.
NCAA 5000m Champ, Recent Nuttycombe Champ w/ 8th fastest ever on that course
2nd @ ACC’s in 2021 behind Chmiel

2 Kelsey Chmiel JR NC State
15:27 track 5k, 19:34 XC 6k, 8:59 3k speed
ACC Defending Champion

3 Samantha Bush JR NC State(Possible 7th)
15:35 track 5k, 19:52 XC 6k, 8:54 3000m backed up with 2:04 800 speed
8th @ ACC’s in 2021. This is assuming she’s at her best come race day.

4 Sydney Seymour SR NC State (Possible 8th)
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell. This is assuming she’s at her best come race day.

5 Brynn Brown SO North Carolina (Possible 3rd)
19:38.9 XC 6k @ Paul Short Run recently for 6th
*She is coming into this race as the 3rd best returner from last year, but others have just outperformed her thus far in the 2022 season
6th @ ACC’s in 2021

6 Olivia Markezich JR Notre Dame
19:38 XC 6k.
18th @ Nuttycombe recently, 8th @ Joe Piane with some serious big-guns in that race
12th @ ACC’s in 2021

7 Amina Maatoug SO Duke
19:34 XC 6k @ Paul Short Run recently
28th @ Nuttycombe recently, 2nd at Paul Short Run (1.6 seconds behind Kemboi)

8 Marlee Starliper FR NC State (Possible 4th)
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend. I’m hoping that with 1 month since Joe Piane, that she’ll have gained a lot of the last touch of fitness she appeared to be lacking.

9 Savannah Roark SO Syracuse
Her 20:37.3 for 6th @ the Cowboy Jamboree is impressive.
23rd @ ACC’s in 2021

10 Savannah Shaw SR NC State
15:33 track 5k, senior, will be trying to show she’s capable of making the squad for Nationals

Thoughts?

I’d put the ND #1 on the podium with yr NCSt picks. Markezich’s 2021 results suggest she gets stronger and more race savvy as the season progresses and she’s trending similarly this year with significantly faster times. [It’s still early, but I foresee her becoming another top steeplechaser who performs surprisingly well on the OKSt course (think Norris & Steelman in 3/2021).]

Total crapshoot for the rest.

TuohyFan wrote:

Possible Outcome for 2022 Women’s ACC Cross Country Championship

Now that the pre-season is complete and we can take a look back at how these women have competed across the country, on various courses and conditions, the championship season is upon us! How will they fare in Virginia on the rolling grass hills of Panorama Farms?

NOTE: Course record at Panorama Farms appears to be 19:43.80 by Liv Westphal from Boston College back in 2014.

My ideas for placements and reasons why:

1 NC State (with an estimated score of 18)
2 North Carolina
3 Notre Dame
4 Syracuse
5 Florida State

1 Katelyn Tuohy SO NC State
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 8:54 U20 3000m Record. 4:06 1500m speed.
NCAA 5000m Champ, Recent Nuttycombe Champ w/ 8th fastest ever on that course
2nd @ ACC’s in 2021 behind Chmiel

2 Kelsey Chmiel JR NC State
15:27 track 5k, 19:34 XC 6k, 8:59 3k speed
ACC Defending Champion

3 Samantha Bush JR NC State(Possible 7th)
15:35 track 5k, 19:52 XC 6k, 8:54 3000m backed up with 2:04 800 speed
8th @ ACC’s in 2021. This is assuming she’s at her best come race day.

4 Sydney Seymour SR NC State (Possible 8th)
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell. This is assuming she’s at her best come race day.

5 Brynn Brown SO North Carolina (Possible 3rd)
19:38.9 XC 6k @ Paul Short Run recently for 6th
*She is coming into this race as the 3rd best returner from last year, but others have just outperformed her thus far in the 2022 season
6th @ ACC’s in 2021

6 Olivia Markezich JR Notre Dame
19:38 XC 6k.
18th @ Nuttycombe recently, 8th @ Joe Piane with some serious big-guns in that race
12th @ ACC’s in 2021

7 Amina Maatoug SO Duke
19:34 XC 6k @ Paul Short Run recently
28th @ Nuttycombe recently, 2nd at Paul Short Run (1.6 seconds behind Kemboi)

8 Marlee Starliper FR NC State (Possible 4th)
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend. I’m hoping that with 1 month since Joe Piane, that she’ll have gained a lot of the last touch of fitness she appeared to be lacking.

9 Savannah Roark SO Syracuse
Her 20:37.3 for 6th @ the Cowboy Jamboree is impressive.
23rd @ ACC’s in 2021

10 Savannah Shaw SR NC State
15:33 track 5k, senior, will be trying to show she’s capable of making the squad for Nationals

Thoughts?

Ncstateenthusiast wrote:

UVA would be a major upset if they take the #2 spot. I do think not traveling could really help them and knowledge of their course. They haven’t run In the bigger races which some say is a disadvantage or maybe not. That can go both ways. They have beat some respectable teams like Kentucky and ole miss. A few nice transfers they picked up and their freshmen are a year older and making a better transition into cross country from a remarkable track season. Under the radar is transfer Seeland who is a 2:02 800 along with Barnett and Appleton who are become elite talent. Seeland putting in a solid first cross country season. Their top 4 have all run under 4:20 in the 1500m and Atkinson is on a dramatic comeback season. Meninger their transfer has been so consistent up top. UNC probably 90% favorite for second but just feeling UVA has a great day. NC State can win this with their 4-10 runners.

TuohyFan wrote:

Ncstateenthusiast wrote:

UVA would be a major upset if they take the #2 spot. I do think not traveling could really help them and knowledge of their course. They haven’t run In the bigger races which some say is a disadvantage or maybe not. That can go both ways. They have beat some respectable teams like Kentucky and ole miss. A few nice transfers they picked up and their freshmen are a year older and making a better transition into cross country from a remarkable track season. Under the radar is transfer Seeland who is a 2:02 800 along with Barnett and Appleton who are become elite talent. Seeland putting in a solid first cross country season. Their top 4 have all run under 4:20 in the 1500m and Atkinson is on a dramatic comeback season. Meninger their transfer has been so consistent up top. UNC probably 90% favorite for second but just feeling UVA has a great day. NC State can win this with their 4-10 runners.

This was interesting, and actually made me have to go and do some reading, thanks for sharing!

Sound reasoning.

After further review they do look like a solid team, and if they were in another conference, they might have a shot. But the 1-2 punch of the Carolinas just keeps everyone out it seems. And if they don’t, then I think it’s Notre Dame coming in 2nd with the Markezich low stick and the next four approximately 16 to 20 seconds behind her (and those 4 will be a group separated only by 2 to 8 seconds apart).