The fastest Kipchoge could have run in Berlin

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It's difficult to say exactly, especially as one has to factor in precisely how much the pacers' help was worth, and how much longer they could have carried on had the pace been a little more restrained.

Eliud ran splits of 59:51/61:18. The final 5k splits from 20k on were 14:23, 14:32, 14:30, 14:43, and then 6:16 to bring it home. I think it's self-evident that he overcooked it a little bit - the first four 5k's were 14:14-14:09-14:10-14:12. We also know previously that Eliud ran a monstrous negative split of 61:06/60:33 in 2018.

So 59:51 was overcooking it, and 61:06 was leaving a bit too much in the tank - halfway in between is in the neighborhood of 60:25-60:30. I think this looks close to optimal - something like a 60:30/60:15 negative split, or just running 60:2x even pace (although with considerably more energy expenditure in the second half owing to the lack of pacers) the whole way represents something close to optimal.

In my opinion then it's fairly certain that with a slightly more restrained opening, Eliud could have run close to 2:00:50 - again, we know he can close Berlin in around 60:30, so he could save nearly 50 seconds in the second half; as long as he can get this savings by slowing the first half by just 30 seconds, the 2:00:50 seems right there.

Now, as for anything faster, it gets a little hairy, and too hard to predict. I think it's not outlandish to see Eliud's performance as indicating that 2:00:30-2:00:50 is possible for him. But I would say we had a pretty solid indication that a sub 2:00:30 clocking is at present out of reach - given that a 59:51 substantially overcooked him, there's no easy way to spin splits to get under 2:00:30. If he opens well over 60:20, he would have to close under 60:10. I don't think it's tenable to expect Eliud to run a sub60 half solo. On the other hand, if he opens around 60:20 or under, we see he's within a 30 second range of getting burnt. Considering the burn of 59:51 put him 78 seconds over 60:00, it's hard to see 60:20 as being enough of a slow down to let sub 60:10 by possible.

I would say his performance in Berlin shows 2:00:50-2:01:00 is certainly in reach, a bit faster is conceivable but the ceiling for that performance was in the 2:00:30-40 range.

Very plausible breakdown. I wonder what time would've put him spread-eagled on his back in agony moments after crossing the finish line (Breaking2)? 2:00:50? Maybe he privately vowed to never revisit that level of pain again.

What a strange question to ask the Op, though you forgot the question mark.

I used Stat Gangsta's running calculator to optimize the time, feeding in the 5K results, then adding on the extra 6:16 for the final 2.195K. This gives an optimal time of 2:00:33. Coincidentally, the optimized pace for the eight 5K segments is very nearly the same as for the final 2.195K

BTW, the calculator provides a dropdown list of various distances, but a selection isn't required

Stat Gangsta's running calculator

This.

I think he had that in him last week. 2:01:09 is amazing, yet frustrating. Because 59:51 was a gamble that did not pay the highest dividends. I bet Kipchoge himself would admit to this. 60:20 would have been so much better.

Good post.

I don't think a very small positive split hurts that much, especially when you have pacers breaking the wind the first 25k. That means the small positive split is closer to an even effort, and we already know he can run 1:59:40 with pacers the whole way.

Great points, I agree with that too. He ran an even effort and therefore I think he basically got the maximum out of himself that was possible in a real race situation. I think it's doubtful he ever breaks his current WR as that 2:01:09 was really a fantastic effort. Father time is undefeated after all as well.

Yeah I think the only way he gets a significantly faster time in a "real race" would be truly getting an all star pacer scenario. Dedicated 10K/HM pacers, then also having multiple 2:03 Marathon pacers holding on for 30-35 KM knowing they won't be going for a win or even a PB. I don't think its possible to get something like that without the structure or resources of one of those Breaking 2 events. And then at that point if he has a team of like 10 pacers, is it even a real race anymore?

Good post but don't forget that the first 5K was 'slow' (ie outside sub2 pace) and so 5K-21.1K was actually 10M at definitely under 59:51 pace. That is probably what over cooked him, not the 59:51 itself but how it was run. Had he split it evenly he may not have experienced the same fall off (or less of one)?