Coe 81 vs Kipketer 97 vs Rudisha 2012 - Who wins in a perfectly paced race?

Are you within 0.8secs of Coe's best? That margin (less for Kipketer) separating these runners over a period of 30 years does not produce a foregone conclusion.

Cruz should probably be in this conversation as well, if you’re doing a Mount Rushmore of 800m runners. Will leave him out for now. If there’s a pacer, you have to figure Rudisha is glued to him and takes over after a 49-flat 800. Most importantly Rudisha is willing to blast the first 200 to ensure he has the pole. Kipketer behind him and then Coe. The problem for Coe is Kipketer will likely begin his move to pass Rudisha at 150 after 1:15 high/1:16 low for 600. Rudisha is a strong finisher and while Kipketer may draw even a la Keely vs Mu I like Rudisha to edge him in the end. Coe gives away too much as he often did in competitive races and is a few meters behind after a tough last 30 meters.

1:42.01 to 1:42.09 to 1:42.43

You seem to be looking a little blue in the face.

You amuse yourself with your junior high retorts while the rest of us wonder how a man in his late 60s has come to such a sad state of being.

The margin to the previous record is a very indirect way of measuring the absolute strength of the mark. You well know some records are “softer” than others. Thanks to Coe and the Kipketer, the 800 record was a strong one. Regardless, we are not comparing Coe to those who preceded him, we are comparing Coe to Rudisha. Rudisha’s mark is 0.8% better than Coe’s and that’s a lot. Kipchoge just bested his old record by 0.4% and people are using terms like, “smashed the record.” You believe that this difference of 0.8% would have been made up by differences in tracks and shoes and whatever between 1981 and 2012. Fine, but you are in the small minority holding this view.

In order to make an argument for 800m/1500m men, you sure have to go back far in history. If you want to discuss history of 800m, look back to dominance of 800m by 400m/800m men, 1930's through 1950's (John Woodruff/Rudolph Harbig/Malvin Whitfield/Tom Courtney). Lydiardism ruined 800m for a decade plus. Lydiardism discouraged men with potential to be excellent 400m/800m athletes. The pendulum has swung back. You're not going to resurrect 800m/1500m athletes.

But I thought the result of anything that hasn’t actually happened is unknown? Do you concede that is not the case?

If the race is perfectly paced - as the thread suggests - then Coe is on Rudisha's shoulder throughout and fends off Kipketer's attempt to pass. With his famous "double kick" he takes Rudisha in the last 30m. All three beat the wr.

That is exactly what I said. There is no "foregone conclusion". The result is therefore unknown. Try to keep up.

So you think that, for example, Nick Symmonds was intrinsically 1.4 seconds faster over 800 than Dave Wottle?

You seem to have arrived at it much earlier.

His famous “double kick?” Now the old man is really having nostalgic delusions. As long as your non African wins you can nod off happily to sleep.

0.8sevs is a lot in the same era. It isn't over 30 years. The fact that Coe reduced the record by the degree he did speaks of a superior achievement.

On that Aug evening in 2012, yes….

Moscow 1500. It does evoke nostalgia. But not with your kind of fairly obvious bias.

Wilson Kipketer.

Coe is 3rd - he was a great 800m time trailer but not the best tactician over 2 laps with his only major win being the Euro in 86. He's also over half a second behind Kipketer in his ceiling performance, and broke 1.42 once vs multiple times for DR and WK. It's no slight on him at all as he's the best 8-15 guy ever, but he doesn't win this.

So the way this hypothetical race is decided is can Rudisha outrun and hold off Kipketer? He doesn't win any other way because he never won any other way in his entire career other than front running. Might seem like a simple answer because Rudisha actually has the WR and ran 3 times faster than Kipketer ever did but I'm not so sure.

I think Rudisha ran to his max in London. People say "what about drafting and having a good pacemaker etc" but in the 800m and it this level of human performance this is only a benefit if the pacemaker is essentially a clone of the runner they are pacing at get's the rhythm, tempo and execution absolutely perfect. What I saw in London was Rudisha getting to run the 800m exactly how he needed to in perfect weather with the perfect incentive. No critical section of the race was too fast or too slow - there was no insane 23.5 opener, cooling down to 48.8 at the bell (which is still too fast), he got to execute the way that was best for him and he did it to perfection.

Kipketers WR in Zurich on the other hand is one of the best performances in running history ever not just for the fact that it smashed a superb WR and is still the 4th best time ever, but because it survived a suicidal opening 200/400m (23.1, 48.2 that wasn't even close to optimal. We know this because a week later Kipketer ran faster worse conditions and atmosphere in Cologne "despite" going through 400m almost a second slower. So really on this night in Zurich, Kipketer could have run somewhere in the 1.40.6/7 range had he hit the bell in 49.0. I mean Rudishas agent James Templeton even said this to me straight up once - they were happy Kipketer "messed it up" (somewhat tongue in cheek obviously) that night so David could break the record in London.

So I don't see Rudisha, with the threat of Kipketer on his shoulder, being able to run away from him and Kipketers slightly superior form and racing pedigree (watch the 99 WC final to see how tough he was) being enough to just get by and take the win.

Just an opinion.

It’s not unknown whether Coe would’ve beaten me just as it’s not unknown whether Coe would’ve won in this hypothetical matchup from the OP. Both are foregone conclusions. Good luck continuing to convince yourself otherwise.

Lydiardism beat the 400-800 men.

Just as Jarmila Kratochvilova’s having held the women’s 800m record for 39 years and counting speaks of “superior achievement,” or is it superior chemicals?