Help: What will I run in Berlin next week?

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2 years ago 09/12/2022 3:25am EDT

Any pacing advice for me when I run Berlin next weekend? Thinking 4:35ish per k, sub 3:15.

PBs this year

10k: 39:09 (April), 39:29 (last week, midst of marathon training with no taper)

HM: 1:26:12 (April), 1:29:50 (August, midst of marathon training with no taper)

Training

- Averaged 85k per week, with 4 weeks just over 100k

- Typically Tuesday, Thursday sessions with a long long run (28km+) every other week. Placed a lot of emphasis on LT2 work on Tuesdays, LT1 or V02 on Thursdays.

- 7 long runs, including two 36ks and some quality in most of them. E.g. Canova 7+6+4+3+2 or 4x5km or fast finish.

I’m feeling pretty good. Ive done a lot of volume at or faster than MP effort. I should be confident, but I’m not. What do you fellas think?

2 years ago 09/12/2022 3:36am EDT

re: BossBabyBro

BossBabyBro wrote:
Any pacing advice for me when I run Berlin next weekend? Thinking 4:35ish per k, sub 3:15.
PBs this year
10k: 39:09 (April), 39:29 (last week, midst of marathon training with no taper)
HM: 1:26:12 (April), 1:29:50 (August, midst of marathon training with no taper)
Training
- Averaged 85k per week, with 4 weeks just over 100k
- Typically Tuesday, Thursday sessions with a long long run (28km+) every other week. Placed a lot of emphasis on LT2 work on Tuesdays, LT1 or V02 on Thursdays.
- 7 long runs, including two 36ks and some quality in most of them. E.g. Canova 7+6+4+3+2 or 4x5km or fast finish.
I’m feeling pretty good. Ive done a lot of volume at or faster than MP effort. I should be confident, but I’m not. What do you fellas think?

4:35/km is very reasonable imo. I could easily see you negative splitting off that pace.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 3:53am EDT

re: BossBabyBro

Answer: You will run the marathon.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 4:20am EDT

re: BossBabyBro

Everything here looks like 3:05 to me, except that August HM--that is an outlier. Accepting no taper, was it a tough course, easier effort, bad day, etc.? I would feel a lot better about 3:05 if that was 1:27.

Fitness looks good--trust your training and don't be afraid to push yourself.

P.S. - Not sure what your long term goals are, but with a 100k base and a good race day, you'd have a great shot at sub-3 next time, IMO.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 4:56am EDT

re: zdf

I think sub 3:15 is a good goal with that training. Maybe a bit conservative but that's a good approach in the marathon especially if unexperienced!

Have a nice race.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 6:56am EDT

re: zdf

zdf wrote:
Everything here looks like 3:05 to me, except that August HM--that is an outlier. Accepting no taper, was it a tough course, easier effort, bad day, etc.? I would feel a lot better about 3:05 if that was 1:27.
Fitness looks good--trust your training and don't be afraid to push yourself.
P.S. - Not sure what your long term goals are, but with a 100k base and a good race day, you'd have a great shot at sub-3 next time, IMO.

Re the August HM, I felt fine but I just couldn't push like I normally could with a proper taper. It was a deceptive course (only around 80-90m elevation gain but it didn't feel flat) but definitely not a tough one. I put it down to tiredness on the day. I also raced a 3k on the Thursday beforehand (11min on the dot).

Thanks for your insight. Definitely going for sub3 next year!

2 years ago 09/12/2022 7:36am EDT

re: BossBabyBro

BossBabyBro wrote:
Any pacing advice for me when I run Berlin next weekend? Thinking 4:35ish per k, sub 3:15.
PBs this year
10k: 39:09 (April), 39:29 (last week, midst of marathon training with no taper)
HM: 1:26:12 (April), 1:29:50 (August, midst of marathon training with no taper)
Training
- Averaged 85k per week, with 4 weeks just over 100k
- Typically Tuesday, Thursday sessions with a long long run (28km+) every other week. Placed a lot of emphasis on LT2 work on Tuesdays, LT1 or V02 on Thursdays.
- 7 long runs, including two 36ks and some quality in most of them. E.g. Canova 7+6+4+3+2 or 4x5km or fast finish.
I’m feeling pretty good. Ive done a lot of volume at or faster than MP effort. I should be confident, but I’m not. What do you fellas think?

3:15 is way too conservative unless you just suck at the marathon. Can't tell if you have any experience. The old rule of 2x your half time provides a conservative estimate that you can better with good weather and a flat course. Like Berlin. So in the 3:00-3:03 range for you.
To put in perspective I will be there too and aiming 3:15-3:20 off of 1:33-1:34 half times. Last several marathons have been in that range.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 2:44pm EDT

re: BossBabyBro

BossBabyBro wrote:
Any pacing advice for me when I run Berlin next weekend? Thinking 4:35ish per k, sub 3:15.
PBs this year
10k: 39:09 (April), 39:29 (last week, midst of marathon training with no taper)
HM: 1:26:12 (April), 1:29:50 (August, midst of marathon training with no taper)
Training
- Averaged 85k per week, with 4 weeks just over 100k
- Typically Tuesday, Thursday sessions with a long long run (28km+) every other week. Placed a lot of emphasis on LT2 work on Tuesdays, LT1 or V02 on Thursdays.
- 7 long runs, including two 36ks and some quality in most of them. E.g. Canova 7+6+4+3+2 or 4x5km or fast finish.
I’m feeling pretty good. Ive done a lot of volume at or faster than MP effort. I should be confident, but I’m not. What do you fellas think?

I'm an experienced marathoner, so take that into account.

Last year, I ran 39:22 for 10k, 1:26 and 1:27 for HM, and 3:10 for the marathon.

And Berlin is a fast course. If the weather is fine, shoot for 3:10 (4:30/km).

2 years ago 09/12/2022 3:52pm EDT

re: Charlesvdw

Really? At 1:26-27 for the half I'd think (and calculators would predict) that you should be sniffing 3:00.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 4:12pm EDT

re: Achtung

Keep in mind two things:

1. it's his first marathon (I think)

2. calculators tend to overestimate marathon performance

2 years ago 09/12/2022 4:15pm EDT

re: Charlesvdw

Having run 1:26 and 1:27 last year, I definitely wasn't capable of running 3:00.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 4:56pm EDT

re: Charlesvdw

What is your basis for point #2? Just your own experience?
Calculators have worked like a charm for me. And I assume that they are based on teams of data and so, on average, should work pretty well for most. Of course there are always the outliers who perform better at shorter or longer distances; you may be one of the latter.

2 years ago 09/12/2022 5:14pm EDT

re: Charlesvdw

Definitely my experience aswell. You need to be more like in 1:24 HM and 38:00 10k shape to go sub3

2 years ago 09/12/2022 9:27pm EDT

re: BossBabyBro

You ran faster times than me when I ran my first sub 3:15 marathon. You’ll definitely be good to run under 3:15 unless something happens during the run.

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