I think that we are going to see a drop off in participation numbers for a few years nationwide. The pandemic and virtual school is to blame. A lot of freshmen and sophomores, depending on your location, lost two years of organized sports as well as two years of normal high school social interactions. Many are lost for good as they question why start a new sport during your junior or senior year? They would not get recruited for collegiate running and might have no clue that is even an option.
I don't know if this is the reason that F-Ms numbers are off but picking up the Stotan approach halfway through high school cannot be easy nor appealing to most kids.
Maybe at vvs someone not on that milesplit roster will race. Maybe the milesplit roster doesn’t have everyone.
FM did have someone join the sport junior year in 2016. He was on JV that year. Then senior year he scored for them and helped them get second at NXN. Something no one predicted based on how many seniors they lost
I’m gonna have to imagine that aris either seriously changes his training to be more conservative and avoid injuries or fm is gonna struggle to be competitive. I cant believe I’ve seen people call them a top 2 class A school
Central NY specifically has had pretty strong restrictions all pandemic. Most teams have historically low participation numbers. The state last year was very strong at the top end but the depth was simply not there. It got better in outdoor track but cross country was historically weak past the top 5-10 runners. FM always had a pretty small team, even when they won every year they never had more than 20 boys on the roster. It makes sense they have so few this year. I’m sure Aris will adapt. The rest of Class A with the exception of Corning is weak this year. FM can be 2nd if they get 5 guys over 160, which they will easily do.
They accomplished that feat all of one time last year, barely, on the VVS course that they run all the time, with a lot more returning talent than they have coming into this year. Unless you have some inside information to share, I think it's pretty optimistic to say they'll put 5 guys above 160 "easily". "Heroically" would be a better descriptor.
I think you're confusing my post with someone else's. I did not say that kids aren't coming out because of COVID. COVID has zero effect on healthy young people. It's the vaxx, not the "disease" that is to blame.
Highest speed rating returners according to tullyrunners: FM 179 Otis (166 at vvs) 174 McGinn 162 perry (162 at vvs) 156 derezynski (156 at vvs) 142 weires 137 patrick m If FM’s 3-5 get close to their top 2 it will hard to beat them. I think Perry can based on his 10:03. Maybe a soph or junior stepped up too. Or the two seniors who were in their top 7 last year
Returning highest last year’s speed ratings for st Anthony’s: Brancaccio 12 166 Hunter Wilson 12 165 Jeremy Paredes 12 165 Morelli 11 158 Dearie 12 158 Melloy 11 156 McLaughlin 11 154 MacPherson 10 152 Olsen 12 150 Looks like they got depth too. 3 guys over 165, and 3 almost broke it. Some other guys stepped up in track.
Burnt hills Rounds 12 181 Windecker 11 168 Casey 12 158 Smith 11 155 Marvin 11 151 Robleno 11 150 Dugan 11 133 McFarland 11 125 Windecker is the only person who’s speed rating was higher in the first race than any races last year. Casey and Marvin did not race. Rounds clearly had an off race.
a soph new to the team was able to score for them.
Monroe Woodbury: Catherwood 176 Gilstrap 174 Urciuoli 168 If they find 2 more up there they could be really special.
another catherwood went 4:35 in the 1600. Maybe he will be up with those guys and they will just need a 5th
Saratoga’s speed ratings of the returners weren’t that impressive last year but track times showed their improvements and depth. Very unlikely that they will go to NXN this year but looking forward to seeing the young talent that they got.
Corning’s speed ratings 185 171 170 166 165 163
clearly hard to beat them unless you get get an elite top 5
Yeah I don’t think Aris will sell this boys team’s chances of going to NXN short. Maybe having only 10 guys could be a good thing, because there will be more attention. It just takes 5 to score. He has McGinn/Otis/Perry as their top 3, and Cooper and Weires as the other 2 varsity returners. That’s 5 returners with significant varsity experience, which is good in itself. And then they got sophomore Ditre who ran a 5:06 in the 1600 but that’s close to what McGinn ran a year ago and McGinn really stepped up and ran a 16:39 and became their number 1 so maybe Ditre could step up like that too. And also junior Patrick who ran a 5:00 1600. Sophomore track didn’t go so well for some reason. Maybe injured or declining. Maybe he will have a healthy season and be as good as his brother. And senior George who ran a 5:06 and ran Cc sophomore year but missed his junior season for whatever reason. Maybe he will be back this fall and really help the team. FM could possibly have a solid 6 and 7 this season too which would help in case a scorer gets sick or injured.
We don’t know the talent of the newcomers jang and freshman mcblane.
That 5:00 was his freshman time. I can also imagine that he is motivated to have a big season, maybe to score for them, considering he ended up as their 8th runner last XC season, so he was one spot away from making the state/feds squad
What a funny sub thread. If you were going to abandon your faith in whatever religion you used to have, joining the antivax conspiracy cult is a strange choice. I suggest you find one that brings you more peace.