Female trying to break 2:40 in marathon debut this October

Yes, sub 2:40 seems like a realistic goal. Good luck!

You won’t know until you try! I’ve run a 2:45 on around 70 mpw (female also). And your 5k PR is faster than mine. It’s hard to say since some people are better suited for longer races. It’s a bit hard to convert a 5k time to the marathon. Building up your mileage is great start.
it certainly seems like you have the talent to run sub 2:40 (and eventually faster). Have you thought about getting a coach?

I wouldn't rely on the conversion charts. Feedback from workouts will be more realistic. October is right around the corner as far as marathon training goes, but 4+ months of 90+ mile weeks is a really awesome base. Have you done tempos at 6min/mi?

I completely understand the hesitancy re: workouts on high mileage, but without them you're not training your body to do what you need it to do, which is run approx 6:05 per mile for 2 hours and 39 minutes.

I would take the latter 10 miles of your remaining three 20 milers and progress towards marathon pace in one, run 10 @ MP in the other, and 12-15 @ MP in the final one before the taper. Do strides, maybe lower the mileage a bit now to 80-85 and hit some workouts since you have such a huge base. Also, if it's possible to find a half marathon between now and your race I'd do that to get in the right mindset and give yourself some more data to draw from.

There is certainly a learning curve so give it a go, but don't beat yourself up if you run into issues. For what it's worth, I was probably in about 16:30 shape when I ran 2:39 for the marathon.

A time conversion just from a 5k time is pretty useless in my opinion.

You need to do 10k and HM races and ideally base your Marathon pacing from your HM time.
It looks like you are actually putting the work in so you might getting close to these 2:40.

But it's probably better to pace yourself a little slower in your first Marathon than going out for 2:40 and have a huge bonk.

Good luck with your training and please report back.

If you're hitting 90-100 mile weeks, with 20 milers at 6:30, you're probably on track for 2:40. But what I would do, in addition to the marathon pace runs suggested above, would be to do a half marathon time trial.

It doesn't need to be a race. You could do it on your own. If you can hit 1:15:00-1:15:30, on a similar course and conditions, then you're in striking distance.

Yeah will say this a little nice but some people can run a 5k & don't have their endurance built up to 26.2. What's your 10k/half? Think you need at least a 1:16/17 (no taper/tired legs) but the faster the better. 10 miles @ 6-flat (true marathon effort, not a race effort) in a 20 miler in a high mileage week is a solid predictor.

Mileage and long runs look good. Lots of threshold reps for your weekly workouts. In my experience 16:44 = more like sub-2:45 (low-2:40s for a well trained athlete), sub-16:30 = 2:39, & 16-flat = sub-2:35 potential.

I think you'll find plenty of sub-17 runners who haven't broken 2:45. But I think there's no reason to sell yourself short. Just be realistic on race day & think about weather/course if any pacing adjustments need to be made.

Why not some long reps:

* 3- 5 x 2mi @MP

* 3 - 4 x 3mi @ MP

* 2 x 4-5 mi 2 @ MP

* 3-4 x 2 mi @ HMP

* 3 x 3mi @ HMP

* even 1-20 x 400 2 10K pace

Doing some work at FASTER than your desired MP will definitely help you.

Good luck with your training and your OCT (CHI?) race!

My 5K PR was only 18:10 and I ran 2:43 off 75-90 mpw. So your goal certainly seems reachable, but it's all a question of how well you carry your speed over a distance. Training can help but I suspect a lot of it is just genetic.

Absolutely. You're a really great runner, OP, and your mileage alone might get you there. But I wonder about your reluctance to run ANY workout, especially when it seems as though you're consistently running long runs so fast. I see 6:30 average 20-mile runs for you as a potential concern even more than, say, a 35-40 min. LT run. But fortunately those long efforts haven't caused injury or dragged you down.

I know others have offered some good advice, but what about taking one or two of your remaining 20 milers and turning it into a 21-22 at around an average of 7:30 or so? Get that 2:40 endurance prefaced by usual mileage that includes a mid-week run of something like 2 up, 8 starting at 30K pace and progressing to HM pace, then 2 down? Then a week or two later you can do a 20-miler with 8-10 easy (nice and easy into a couple of progression miles), finishing with 10-12 at MP. I'd guess that your experience has probably shown you that light workouts (where you leave a lot on the table), even if they're sub-optimal, can still pay dividends. And, of course, that's a plan that addresses your injury concerns (especially because you seem to have been careful in your buildup and have gotten used to the higher mileage) and also prevents the problem of hitting race day overcooked. Your fitness, ability, and mileage are very impressive, so if you have some balance, I'd expect that maintaining your schedule while adding a few moderate workouts would give you a great chance of getting where you where you want for this race ... with reasonable weather and pacing.

But then, you're a much more talented and well-trained athlete than I am, so I don't want to be presumptuous.

Just because she could hand you your a$$ on a silver platter is not a valid reason for you to get your knickers in a twist, mate.

Those conversion charts are notorious for undervaluing longer distance performances.

They're based on the assumption that you would have as much experience and ideal training for each individual event.

However, you've probably run dozens of 5k races, done 100s of vo2 max type workouts that span the duration of a 5k race, and have been able to do a number of tune-up races before achieving your best times for a given season. Therefore, you probably know how to pace a 5k better, can deal with the pain of a 5k better, and can mentally work your way through a 5k - knowing that you only have minutes to go when it gets hard, rather than an hour (or more).

You cannot have the same level of preparation for a marathon, so I think it's a little naive to expect the equivalent performance on debut.

Then again, some people are just better suited to the marathon. Perhaps you're one of these rare breeds.

This is nonsense.

You must've improved dramatically during that marathon block.

I reckon if you had've run a 5k on the day you ran the marathon - you would've run a huge 5k PR (I'm talking close to a minute).

Let's just analyse your performance for a second. Your marathon pace is only 20 secs/mile slower than your 5k pace, despite being 8.5 times the distance.

Given that the OP ran in college, I doubt she'll experience such a substantial improvement.

I barely broke 18:20 my junior year of college. Did not race my senior year so I’m not sure what kind of shape I was in. Ran my marathon debut also a couple months after graduating and ran 2:37. Ran like 85-95 mpw the summer before a fall marathon with no workouts and just some decently paced long runs (very similar to you). I really think some people are meant for the marathon. I was never good at short distances. My 5k pr in college was run at a faster pace than my mile pr (raced them each just as often). Same with the mile and 2 mile in high school. I agree that a lot is genetic. Anyway, I would be surprised if you didn’t break 2:40. You’re much more talented than I am. But it is also the marathon, so don’t get discouraged if the first one is a learning experience! Keep at is as I’m sure you have a bright future at the distance!

I agree with all of this, except the suggest to do 12-15@MP in the *final* one. It's a great workout, but I'd do it (or find a 1/2 marathon to run at marathon effort) more like 4-5 weeks before the race rather than right before the taper. That to me would be too big of an effort too close to the race.

M, 2:42, have trained disproportionately a lot with women at my speed over the years, with my opinions.

2:40 is pretty hard for a women, it is about where you start to need both talent and work ethic.

Thankfully, the sub 17 indicates a decent talent and your 90 mile weeks indicate a good work ethic. The long runs at 6:30 are very good. That's a tad quicker than I do mine in training and you are aiming for a tad quicker race.

I think it is realistic for your debut. I don't understand the logic of "it's your first one, so sandbag". You can screw 2:50 pace just as easy as you can screw up 2:40 pace.

Things I would consider:

Practice your fueling in your long runs, that is a big difference between the full and other races. You need to be comfortable intaking fuel while running.

Start working in some tempo work. If 5:50 tempos feel really good, you are in place. If 6:00 feels like work, you may have issues.

I am not a fan of MP work - train, don't practice. Personal opinion there.

Consider blended workouts, such as a 2 mile tempo, some VO2 intervals, then another 2 mile tempo. Women I have trained with have responded very well to that type of work. Especially in returning to race effort after something like a hard hill in the race.

Good luck, crush it.

What is your HM time? A 5k is a poor predictor. Everything about the marathon is different, from training emphasis to nutrition and the training load. I start with training for a sub-3 and then cranking it down based on your accrued experience.

Are you sure about the sub 16 converting to sub 2:35? I ran 15:5x in XC and struggled to run 59:4x in a 10 mile time trial.

16:40 is probably enough speed to run 2:40, but you've got to be doing true marathon work. You'll need very high mileage, long workouts. I know people running low 16's who were putting in big work and 'only' running 2:36-2:38 range.

And you mentioned seeing the cutoff for big marathons being under 2:40 for elite fields. Often times some of the slowest people accepted will have been accepted because they have a fast half marathon time or some other distance. For example their one and only marathon might be 2:39 but they have a half marathon PR of 71 minutes which gives the elite athlete coordinators reason to believe they could run a lot faster than their 2:39