Recession? No! US Economy posts lowest unemployment rate in 50 years.

Thanks Brandon.

Javelin.

528,000 jobs effects 0.16% (under 1%) of the population. Inflation effects 100%. American households to pay $5,200 more this year.

businessinsider.com

Americans should budget an extra $5,200 this year to cover rising prices, Bloomberg economists estimate

Ben Winck

About half of that will come from higher food and energy prices, Bloomberg said, which will hit low-income Americans the hardest.

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What would you like done to resolve this?

I get it.

You'd rather see an additional half a million people out of work than have to pay an additional dollar for gas.

I accept the much better definition of a recession (NOT just the NBER telling us so) which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

I stick to this definition no matter who is in the White House and no matter what other conditions exist.

Why is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth a better definition:

1) It is immediately known if we are in one. NBER can take MONTHS to declare if we were in a recession or not.

2) There is no subjectivity. We either are in one or we aren't.

3) There can't be an anomaly of an economic indicator that either keeps us out of a recession or puts us into one like is the case with the NBER.

What the NBER does is a deeper dive into how the economy is doing, but again, it's not that helpful to find out MONTHS later, AND we shouldn't decide that a "recession" means the economy is in a horrible state. Some recessions are shallow. Some, like this one, have a terrific unemployment rate.

A recession is simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That's it.

You're kinda dumb.

Intelligent people disagree.

Oil prices are almost back to pre-Russia Ukraine war levels. Gas prices have dropped from a national average of $4.8 to $4.1 in just the past month (AAA data). Target and Walmart are slashing prices as inventories pile up. Housing prices are falling. If employment stays strong, we could see a perfectly soft landing for the economy where inflation falls without a broad recession.

But that is not what is in the works. The fed is determined to crash the economy mainly because the labor market is too tight and employers are under too much pressure to give profits back to employees in higher wages. So, look for a couple more big rate hikes until the bond yields force investors to dump stocks and cause a big sell off this fall.

528,000 new jobs….doubling expectations

Unemployment rate is 3.5%

Gas prices in my city have dropped by 65 cents per gallon in the last 2 weeks.

Yet this country is heading in the wrong direction. 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

usatoday.com

Economy adds 528,000 jobs in July as hiring surges despite high inflation. US recovers all jobs lost in COVID.

@usatoday

The economy added 528,000 jobs in July despite a slowing economy and high inflation, Unemployment fell from 3.6% to 3.5%.

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This is bad news. It means that the economy is still running too hot. We need a soft landing and not a crash.

So, going by your metric, there was no recession in 2001.

Gas prices are declining because consumption is declining. Consumption is declining because we have had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The reason unemployment is so low and everything costs so much is because the economy is over stimulated (primarily due to the American Rescue Plan, which was not needed). The last thing the economy needs right now is another government spending plan like the Inflation Reduction Act.

What you are missing is the tremendous loss in wealth that has hit the middle class in the past six months. Unemployment is low, but wages are not keeping up with inflation, which has resulted in a reduction in personal savings, an increase in household debt, an increase in foreclosures, etc. The stock market is down about 15-30% at a time when prices have increased close to 10% (meaning people who were invested in stocks (which is most middle class Americans) effectively have 25-40% less wealth in their retirement accounts than a year ago when adjusted for inflation. Their homes are likely worth far less than a year ago (especially when adjusted for inflation), primarily due to rising interest rates (which are pushing up mortgage rates). In summary: Unemployment may be low (for now), but everything you own is likely worth about 15-30% less than it was a year ago due to the effects of inflation. The middle class is getting absolutely hammered and you are cheering it on.

As of right now, the Dow is down about 10% YTD. Nasdaq 18% and S&P 13%.

Can we please go back to some of your posts on MMT and there was going to be no inflation from 2 years ago. Please.......

Once the SPR releases stop and the markets wake up to the fact that there is indeed a structural deficit in the oil markets which are highly inelastic and Europe is about to have a cold winter get ready for a new spike in oil prices. Right after the election when Biden is about out of SPR oil is probably the right timing.

We've been hearing about how inflation in transitory or peak inflation for over a year now, those predicitons have not turned out well. We will probably see a decline from current out of control inflation reads. But there is no indicators that show that inflation is going back to reasonable levels or that there will be a soft landing. Stagflation seems to be on deck for the forseeable future.

And down 13%, 28% and 18% from their peak earlier this year. Inflation is also up 9.1% since last year. Meaning in real dollars, people's stock holdings are worth 20-35% less than their peak earlier this year.

Real wages still higher than any time during Trump's term despite war in Ukraine and legendary supply chain issues.

Brandon appears to be 'killing it.'