How fast could Grant Fisher run a half marathon next weekend?

He could go sub 59.

Rupp could top in peak shape.

60:00 is a tempo for a 26:30 guy.

Top = too*

He needs to get his ass over to Europe for some real races is what he needs to do. Experiment with, say, NOT running 3 inches from the rail.

Ah more time trials. Just what he needs.

Agree with this. And experiment with making a move before the final turn.

Cant say they I’m particularly interested in a HM but I would like to see what he could do in a rabbited 5000m.

He'd step on a curb and hobble in at 1:04 high.

This is a good point - I didn't consider that there would be curbs

60:00 is almost the American record. While I certainly believe. GF could be in the mix time wise, it isn't a tempo run

Yes. An American held by a guy that was probably in 27:25 shape.

27:15*

Rupp has done a couple of them in top shaped. Speculation is not necessary. This experiment has been held. Broke 60 once. We know exactly what he could do if everything - course, pacers, weather, shoes, fitness - were perfectly aligned. Didn't break 60 that time. No possibility Rupp can go under 59 at any time under any circumstance. If he could, he would have. His marathon and half ARs are theoretical, not literal.

Now, can Grant do it? Maybe. I'd vote no. At least guesses could be right or not. In Rupp's case, he's already tried. No guesswork is needed. The results are in.

Ridiculous comment tbh. Rupp ran some HMs during Marathon training and well past his peak age. Never attempted one during his peak 10,000m shape, he absolutely could have broken the AR in the Half if he cared, but its a niche event.

And Fisher would break 60 no doubt and would go sub 59 with some specific training. The HM American record is incredibly weak, especially in the age of road super shoes. Almost 2.5 minutes behind the WR.

For 5/10K runners, the slowing in pace from 5000m to 10000m is similar for all of them. Would that not be the case for 10000m to the HM?

10K to HM is definitely way different than 5,000 to 10,000. Jacob Kiplimo runs 26:33, as does Grant Fisher, but I don't think anyone here thinks Grant is going to run 57:31. Some people are just better at the roads as well.

Apparently you don't remember the time trial that was exactly and specifically an AR attempt. Everything, including the other runners, was Rupp certified. How could you not be aware of this? The half that he used for OT qualifying was another one that was not "during Marathon training" (and that you have conveniently forgotten). He had recently been training primarily for 10k at the time that took place.

You are one of the many who give Rupp some sort of honorary AR status. He could, in theory, hold every one of them from 10k and up. In actual fact, he has none. And he cares. He has tried to break them. He never will. Why does any debate about this exist? He has tried and failed to break various ARs. This is simply fact.

Yes, the AR in a number of events is soft. Way off the WRs. Certainly not proof that Rupp can break them. In fact, proof exists that he can't - his PRs. Tell me how many minutes the AR in the marathon is from the WR. Now tell me how many minutes Rupp's PR is from the WR. Is it a larger number?

How do shoes come into this? Rupp hasn't run a marathon without something 'super' on his feet. He won't get a bump of several minutes from them. All of his marathons reflect those minutes if they are in fact a valid computation. As I pointed out, there is no math required. "If he cared, and tried, with 'the shoes' he could do XXX."

That was already done. A real-life experiment was held. Data was collected in real time. It's called Rupp's career and his race results. Not under 59. Not under 2:06. Not under the embarrasingly soft ARs. You have rebutted none of that "Ridiculous comment".

He will be good at running the tangents.

I've blogged about this at length on here - Rupp never went for it. His only half-marathons were sit-and-kicks or marathon tuneups.

Even his sub 60 was a jetlagged tuneup.

His 2020 time trial was a legit effort, but he no longer has the legspeed to break the American record.

Now with that said, Ryan Hall's American record was also sort of a jetlagged tuneup. Not saying Rupp was better. But Rupp HAD a window where he had the footspeed (and the supershoes) to break the American record but he never went for it.

Now to address the topic, yes, Grant Fisher could run at least 59 in ideal weather currently.