Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Stanford

OK State

NC State

NC St/NM - 5 strong runners on both teams, looks close on paper (assumes good health of course). These 2 seem much better than anyone other teams. Both teams could have 5 in top 30.

OSU - some ifs but if they work out seem likely for podium esp on home course. The last hill may kill some other teams weakness at #4 and 5 runners like 2020.

NAU/Colorado/ND/Alabama/Washington/BYU - some ifs on each team, esp at #4 and 5 but seem most likely to fight it out for 4-9 place. Whoever finds the best depth will prevail, esp Alabama and BYU.

Oregon State/Utah Valley/Villanova/UNC/Or St/Ole Miss/Arkansas - much less clarity but most potential

Top 7 individuals - Chelangat, Tuohy, Valby, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel, Gregory and right behind them a block of 20 including 3 more NC St and all 5 NM. For now, Van Camp, Cook and Hutchins in that block for those who wonder.

Chelangat-Valby-Roe-Gregory-Cook-Tuohy-Chmiel

OK State for the win.

you can always count on an anti Tuohy post. Gregory has no more XC eligibility.

NAU? What makes you say that? They lose Eitel and Rasmussen and got only 23rd at nationals

They certainly have not done well the last several years at NCAA XC. But both years on paper they were far better. This year they had 6 non seniors under 16:20 for 5,000. I am also assuming Taryn O'Neil returns as a top runner who was not one of those 6. Like I said all of those teams have some questions.

Esther Gitahi from Alabama is still eligible according to this video. So Alabama will have a solid top 4.

If she does return they could be a podium team. But this roster does not show her, and last year she was listed as a graduate student.

rolltide.com

2021-22 Track & Field, Cross Country Roster

The official 2021-22 Track & Field, Cross Country Roster for the University of Alabama Crimson Tide

Link:rolltide.com/sports/xctrack/roster/202...

1. NC State. Defending champs. Losing 2 of their top 5, but will also add Starliper and transfer Seymour.
2. New Mexico. Placed 3rd last year and returns 5 runners who raced at nationals in addition to Dishon who scored for them at the Nuttycumbe Invitational.
3. Oklahoma State. Placed 13th last year. Returns their top 3 and adds Natalie Cook. Needs to find a 5th. Cameron McConnell got 11th at RunningLane so she might be able to help.
4. Notre Dame. Placed 5th last year and returns 4 scorers. Also adds transfer Katie Thronson.
5. BYU. got 2nd last year. Even after losing their top 2 they will still have a good top 4 - Fretheway, Lee, transfer Lindsey Stallworth, and Lexy Halladay (she finished only 9 seconds behind Frentheway at conference but she did not do as well at nationals). Don’t forget Carmen Alder who was only 3 seconds in the mile behind Wayment (though mile times are not the best predictors for a 6k). If Jenna Hutchins starts racing again they should be good again. If not, then the other candidates for the #5 spot are Sadie Sargent (who ran a 20:41 in 2019) and Anastasiya Davis who ran a 20:36 in 2019.
6. University of Colorado. Placed 4th. Returns Covert and Minnuti, and also adds transfers Bailey Hertenstein (28th at nationals in 2020) and Ella Baran (15:49 5K). Constien got 72nd in March 2021. They also got Addy Wiley who ran a 4:26 and will add depth. With all these new faces they should be able to reload even after losing lots of people.
7. Stanford - placed 6th last year and they return Jenks, Dudek, and Suarez. Needs a 4/5. Stewart and Parekh could maybe be their good 4/5.
8. Arkansas. Returns a solid top 3 (Van Camp / Ewert / Thorvaldson). Needs a 4th and 5th than can step up. There are a couple of incoming freshmen that might help. They placed 8th last year and lost Gear/Gregory but Ewert/Thorvaldson should be able to fill in. Their 4&5 will be back.
9. University of Washington. Placed 11th and returns everyone but Schadler and Cantine. Transfer DeLay should be able to fill in for Schadler. So with that, they got a solid top 4. They just need a #5. They got a bunch of solid incoming freshmen, and one of them will probably help out. Or Melany Smart if she returns. Julia David Smith was in their top 5 at their dual meet but she hasn’t done much since then.
10. UNC Chapel Hill. Placed 14th last year. Returns everyone from this team and a couple of freshmen that could help out.
11. University of Alabama. Placed 15th last year. Returns their top 3 (Chagalat, Amaris, Flomena). I don’t know if Esther Gitahi will still be competing. She wasn’t on the track team last spring. If she competes and they can find a #5, they should be in the hunt for the podium if not the national title. They also got a transfer Elka Machan. She, Sam McDonnell, and Jami Reed will be the candidates to help maybe close the gap behind their top 3.
12. University of Wisconsin. This is exactly where they placed last year. They got some tremendous pack running. Returns 4 of their top 6. They need to find a 5th. Scarlett Dale should help out. I think she is still eligible.
13. Colorado State. Placed 17th last year. Also great pack running. Returns 5 runners. Had a 23 second 1-7 spread at nationals.
14. NAU - returns Taryn O’Neill and lots of people under 16:20 in the 5K in track. They got 23rd at nats though. Needs more proof on the XC course.
15. Utah Valley - did not go to nationals last year but returns 4 under 16:10 in the 5K. Needs to find a #5 though, and also needs proof on the XC course.

New Mexico will win

I don't think DeLay has XC eligibility

UNC women’s top 4 at nationals were class of 2020 or 2021 in high school. Plus they bring in a couple of more really good freshmen so they will be around for so long. This team could maybe challenge for a national title in the future.

NC State hasn’t been doing so well recruiting new freshmen lately.

My pick is Stanford here in a couple of years- just take a look at the recruiting class of 2022 and 2023 so far. They are going to be loaded. It will be interesting to see how they do with the class coming in. Stewart, Wells, Parakh, Flynn, Whitaker, Willlis, Riggs, Kennedy, etc.

How about the University of Florida women’s team?
They got:
Parker Valby
Angelina Perez - 9:53 in the 3200
Stephy Ormsby - 16th at the South region in XC
Caroline Bauer - 16:54 at RunningLane
they just need a #5.

Watch out for the Georgetown women’s team.
they got:
Donahue - 30th at Nationals
Corman - 44th at nats
Transfer Andrea Claeson - 16:03 at Mount Sac
Transfer Katy Ann MacDonald - 20:33 in 2020
Transfer Grace Jensen - ran a 20:35 once in 2020

Is this a thread for delusional people? Are you guys all posting from some mental institution somewhere?

NC State will win the next two years and they will win by an incredibly big margin both years!!! It won't be close it won't be a contest!!!

University of Michigan will be good too.
They return:
Katelynne Hart - 69th at nats
Windemuller - 79th at nats
Vanderlende - 108th at nats
Samantha Tran - 90th at nationals in March 2021.
needs a 5th maybe those people who did well at nats in 2018 - like Forsyth or Davre

University of Utah got a solid top 5.

Cara Woolnough - 86th at ncaa nats
Ariel Keklak - 118th at ncaa nats
Emily Venters - 20:11 at FSU nationals
Simone Plourde - 20:30 at FSU nationals
Ariel Keklak - 20:35 at FSU Nationals

So not racing in the Covid year (2020) doesn’t give anyone an extra year of eligibility?