Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 MENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Some random thoughts here:

My top 4 individuals:

1. Nico Young, best PRs of the group and got 4th in 2019 on the same course

2. Charles Hicks, top returner, decent last track season but seems to do better in XC in general

3. Dylan Jacobs, 10k champ and 10th at XC last year

4. Cole Sprout, 4th at NCAA 10k, improving quickly

Some other potential contenders off the top of my head: Alex Maier, Isai Rodriguez, Ky Robinson

Top 3 Teams:

1. Stanford

2. NAU

3. BYU

Top true freshman: gonna go out on a limb here and say it'll be Riley Hough. I don't think Colin Sahlman will adapt as easily as Nico Young to 10k xc, Nico was clearly an aerobic monster in HS while Sahlman is more of a speed-based guy with vastly superior 800 and mile times to Young. Hough seems to be in the same thread as Young with stronger results over longer races.

The great thing about xc is the team aspect of it. It is fun to look at not only the top 4-5 teams but a list of who even may qualify. Without diving too deep into it, I will give my best guess as to who will qualify and where they will finish.

1) NAU - until someone proves they are better I am going with the Lumberjacks

2) Stanford

3) Oklahoma State

4) Tulsa - they have plenty of firepower returning to an already strong team

5) BYU

6) Colorado

7) Arkansas

8) Washington - always so much firepower but always seem to underproduce in xc so even this is tough. They could be much better but I could also see them finish 20th

9) Harvard

10) Portland

11) Wake Forest - hard to rank this team only 11th with the Demon Deacons returning so much but its harder for me to move the ones ahead of them back further.

12) Notre Dame

13) Texas - loss of Yaseen could hurt the place but help the culture

14) Wisconsin

15) Tennessee - IF they qualify they will have enough low sticks to put them between 12-18th

16) Virginia - this team underproduced as much as anyone last fall but looked strong on track. Do they continue to underproduce?

17) Montana State - wow! They were impressive outdoors. Can they be top 10? Yes, but so could 20 other schools.

18) Alabama - Can they ever get more than a few Kenyans to be decent? If so then they could move way up but nothing points to that.

19) North Carolina - low stick helps. If Anderson runs to capability after being hurt last year then they could be 8-12

20) Princeton - another team with tons of talent that faded at NCAA last fall. If Vigilante can get the peak right then they can finish higher

21) Michigan

22) Air Force - lost a few good ones but Cole keeps finding a way.

23) Iowa State - MAYBE a down year after losing a lot

24) Iona - after an off year they slide in

25) Georgetown

26) Florida State - Do they qualify with Wildschutt gone (is he gone?) and no more Muhamed?

27) Syracuse

28) Ole Miss - do they qualify with Cocchia, Garcia Romo and Savino gone?

29) Gonzaga - lots of talent in the PNW to go around

30/31) Southern Utah and Utah State - these last two seem to often be in hunt but I admittedly did not research them

Who did I forget? Who did I over rank?

1. NAU. They will win even with Nur going pro. Colin Sahlman should place high. Besides Nur, they return all their scorers.
2. Stanford. If there’s any team that will challenge NAU, it would be this one. They return all of their scorers, and Thomas Boyden should add depth to this team too. Maybe Riley Hough and / or Gavin Sherry will compete as true freshmen if they can score for them.
3. Oklahoma State - placed 3rd and brings almost everyone back.
4. BYU - losing Mantz but they return their 2-4 guys from Nationals. They also add transfer Christian Allen. There was also only a 36 second spread at regions between their 2nd and 5th runner and all those guys are returning.
5. University of Notre Dame. Placed 9th and are losing Dylan Jacobs but they still return their 2-4. Remember, Josh Methner got 36th and Jake Renfree got 22nd at nationals in March 2021. Renfree and Methner also finished close to Carmody at ACC. Now, they just need to find a #5. They got the best freshman class of all the teams so maybe one of those guys will help.
6. University of Washington - placed 13th but returns almost everyone and will add some transfers
7. University of Tulsa - placed 6th and returns most of their squad
8. Wake Forest. Placed 11th and returns almost everyone.
9. University of Arkansas - returns 5 guys but losing their 1-2 punch will be difficult to make up for.
10. Harvard. Returns 4 of their top 5. Also adds freshmen Shane Brosnan and Vivian Henz. If Colin Baker comes back to where he used to be and these 2 freshmen are able to keep up with guys like Blanks and Iverson, they could place much higher.

UNC will be a team with watch.

They return:

Parker Wolfe (got 24th at nationals)

Jack Aho (got 89th and he should still have eligibility after not competing in 2017)

Patrick Anderson

Transfer Ben Fleming

I think Gitch Hayes might them help out too.

To* watch

I agree on UNC. Can they get real development out of a ton of talent that they brought in over the last two years? That’s the big question. They’ve had their superstars run well but they have a lot of VERY good athletes that have not stepped up. If they do then they are dangerous!

Yup, most of them are from Class of 2021 like Ethan Strand, Colton Sands and Sully Shelton. They did really well in high school but haven’t done as much in college. A lot of these guys will be around for a few years. Patrick Anderson will be around for a few years too since 2020 was a covid year.

Did Sands and Shelton redshirt? No results from them in 2021 XC.

Parker Wolfe seems to be the only one in class of 2021 that’s really stepped up.

University of Texas will still be good even without Yaseen.
Haftu Knight
Rodger Rivera
Cruz Gomez
Crayton Carrozza was up with those guys in some races.
Now they just need a 5th. Not sure who that will be but I’m sure they’ll find someone

Iowa State is still gonna be good apparently:

These people are still eligible:

Wesley Kiptoo

Gable Sieperda

Ezekiel Kibichii

Transfer Titus Winders (13:38 in the 5K)

Don’t know who their 5th will be but incoming freshman Ryan Watts ran a 8:54 in the 3200.

They also got a transfer Finley McLear who is really good at the 800 and 1500 but not sure how that will translate to a 10k.
They got a transfer Peter Smith. Not sure how impactful he will be.

Looks like University of Colorado will still be good after all.

I saw on StrideReport that Brendan Fraser will still be on the team. He didn’t compete in CC in 2017 or 2020.
So him, Seth Hirsch & Austin Vancil are already a solid top 3. They just need a 4 and 5.
Keshon Harrison placed in the top 100 before. Don’t know about his current health and fitness. He might be one of those guys who will help out.
We’ll see if freshman Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff steps up. Or Isaiah Givens if his training with Newbury Park pays off

Kiptoo went pro

Hough is going to Michigan state unless he decomitted

With Nur going pro, won't NAU be losing Nur and Brodey Hasty. This will be two of their top five from NCAA cross. They have some great guys coming in, but they also might be losing one of their guys that has been developing, Tristian Merchant. So, they will have a challenge in front of them, but I am sure they will be up for it!

Brodey has another year of eligibility. Actually 2 more because he did not compete as a true freshman in 2018.

So he competed in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Tristan Merchant was not even in NAU’s top 7 at nationals last year.

So with Nur going pro they are still returning 4 of their top 5 and adding Colin Sahlman.

Is Casey Clinger not coming back?

Looks like CU is starting to populate its 2022 roster (https://cubuffs.com/sports/cross-country/roster/2022?&sort=class ; no detail showing for its freshmen or incoming transfers yet).

Per that, looks like Andrew Kent (45th place last year at NCAA's), like Brendan Fraser, may still be on the team this season.

CU has survived lately by buying a team. It seems that way back when they would mock others for “buying their team”. With scholarships and financial aid, everyone is buying a team but from different stores. Now CU is doing the ultimate buying a team - older proven transfer/grad students. No longer developing young American kids.