Investor got 'death threats' for making this correct call, now he's predicting 40% housing crash

Correct.

Nothing better than watching Zestimate lovers lose everything.

I sure hope you’re right sometime in the next decade, I’m trying to time a beach house purchase as best as I can

Prices coming down to Earth would be nice for many who have been priced out of the housing market.

On the other hand, a 40% drop in one year could cause havoc throughout the financial markets and ultimately the broader economy.

This is your chance. You're gonna be so rich.

Labor rates will have to fall as much as well.

And student loans need to restart.

And we need to stop pumping free money into the economy. In Texas (and many other states), we are still doing "extra" monthly SNAP payments from COVID. COVID-19, PEOPLE.

How could there be that big of decline? So if you bought a house for $1M in 2022 it will only sell for 600 K in 2023?

Can you let me know when the 40% drop is because I want to buy a bunch of homes then? If only I can know before everyone else then i’ll be able to buy all the homes at a bargain before the price goes back up again due to the sudden extreme interest

That's not unheard of. I bought a house in Nevada in 2007 for $157k. Two years later it was worth $48k.

But that was a different situation with mortgage fraud like Taylor Bean&Whittaker, ARMs resetting, and people losing so many houses that banks couldn't even properly foreclose on all of them.

The person in a $1M house that is valued at $600k will likely sit on it for a while as long as they keep their job.

Looks like the realtor overshot the market to me —-that is not a price decline .

What did that home last sell for, in what year, and what will it sell for ultimately in 2022 or 2023?

Sounds like trailer park prices. What in the hell area of Nevada was this? Meth head trailer park lane?

2007. Greatest crash in our lifetimes in real estate.

Prices were diffr'nt in 2007, son. Some day I'll tell you about it.

Looked it up. It looks like it sold for $567,500 in 2009 and it is a short walk to the University of Washington. So maybe it’s only really worth $900 K today but the realtor is being greedy? what’s your point?

His point, if I may, is that it isn't a market driven price decline. At least not in large part. It was priced incorrectly to begin with, even in an inflated market, so Jamin is being deceptive with using this as an example of the broader market trends.

I get that the OP guy in the video is an "expert," but it wasn't hard for the OP expert guy to be right about a huge decline in the crypto and equities markets. Crypto is worth $0 in my view because it doesn't do anything, but to some people (usually poor trying to get rich quick), they have a fantasy of converting it back to USD in the future which is the only reason they buy crypto in the first place (trading it on a greater fool theory/hope/fantasy land) so it still trades at insane prices, and equities were frothy for a long time.
The difference is that real estate is a hard asset, is an inflation hedge, and prices tend to be sticky as you can see so far.

I never thought it mattered that equities were overpriced though, because as a millennial whose retirement date is decades away, I was planning to ride out the ups and downs of the market. And the market has been very good to us over time and for the last decade. Double digit returns year after year is not normal, so it was only a matter of time for a sh*tty year and a solid decline.

I think to lose in real estate, you would have to have had the bad luck of buying in 2021-2022 at the peak when rates were still under 3%, really stretching the budget out to the max on that home, have underwriter write a risky mortgage loan, and the buyer only putting 5% downpayment or less on the home, and losing jobs and being FORCED to sell in 2023 or else not make the mortgage payments, and then in trying to sell the buyer in 2021-2022 finding that the asset has declined so much in market value and they have no cover from retirement accounts/substantial downpayment that foreclosures start happening. A certain percentage of all home sales result in foreclosures annually (they happen all of the time of course), but I don't see how they would happen in most markets to the huge degree that they did in 2007-2009, as most buying the homes were held to much higher lending standards by the banks, the dangerous ARM mortgages are a much smaller percentage of the overall pool of mortgages compared to what the percentage was in 2007-2009, and hopefully due to the higher lending standards, the people getting approved for these mortgages were able to show retirement savings to back up good job income that was verified, and a decent downpayment as cushion to show skin in the game.

Yes, in my view, some realtors have yet to realize it is no longer a sellers market. Homes are no longer selling like hot cakes...And some realtors will be out of a job soon due to transaction volume being extremely low

this is really good. He’s right here