I don't know the field at all. But if he's in position at the gun, and feeling good.
It won't be the "slow" pace (even if it's very hot) that Woody probably needs. While there might not be someone willing to run the whole thing hard and ensure a sub-13, there are numerous athletes (Cheptegei, Fisher, Aregawi, Barega, Ahmed, Kimeli, Kejelcha) willing to run the last 1K-2K hard (12:40 pace) even in tough conditions. So, Woody's major Achilles heel (not getting dropped mid-race) probably will get exposed again.
Grant closed in something like 55 and 58, Worlds will close more like 56 and 54. Woody might look a lot like Hocker did in the 1500 last summer - kicking like a champion, but a few seconds behind the podium.
In this stacked field, I would think something like 13:02 would be a "slow" pace. That's too fast for Woody. He would need something like 13:10 or slower to be able to hang on and use his speed I would imagine.
In this stacked field, I would think something like 13:02 would be a "slow" pace. That's too fast for Woody. He would need something like 13:10 or slower to be able to hang on and use his speed I would imagine.
He doesn’t have the 800/1500m PRs that would indicate he has a speed advantage over other world class 5000m runners.
In this stacked field, I would think something like 13:02 would be a "slow" pace. That's too fast for Woody. He would need something like 13:10 or slower to be able to hang on and use his speed I would imagine.
He doesn’t have the 800/1500m PRs that would indicate he has a speed advantage over other world class 5000m runners.
Except for his 1:24 last 600 recently, or his 53/25 at the Trials last year.
He doesn’t have the 800/1500m PRs that would indicate he has a speed advantage over other world class 5000m runners.
Except for his 1:24 last 600 recently, or his 53/25 at the Trials last year.
1:24 is 56s pace. That isn't exactly blistering at the elite level. Realistically no matter what the speed advantages, guys with 10s slower PRs rarely outkick people with less speed.
Grant closed in something like 55 and 58, Worlds will close more like 56 and 54. Woody might look a lot like Hocker did in the 1500 last summer - kicking like a champion, but a few seconds behind the podium.
When did Fisher close in 55? He closed his last 5k in 60 and his last 10k in 58.
There's always a minute possibility of a Centro 2016 race, where the whole field misjudges it and we get a 13:15-13:25 race. In the unlikely event that happens, Kincaid's closing speed makes him a medal threat. But with 8(?) Sub-12:50 guys in the race, that isn't likely.
There's always a minute possibility of a Centro 2016 race, where the whole field misjudges it and we get a 13:15-13:25 race. In the unlikely event that happens, Kincaid's closing speed makes him a medal threat. But with 8(?) Sub-12:50 guys in the race, that isn't likely.
Feels like those days may be over as far as a global championship race basically being a 400m kickfest. The best guys nowadays are valuing having the lead at the bell and stringing out the pack a bit ahead of the final lap.
This is not going to be a sit and kick race even if it's hot weather. With the talent facing off here, the "kick" is going to be the last 5 laps...sub-4 final mile to win.
I thought I saw an article a few years back where the RIO 1500m participants spent way too much time in the waiting room and lost their warm up, so a stride or two before the race and the first two laps was essentially the warm up and it paid off for Centro
I thought I saw an article a few years back where the RIO 1500m participants spent way too much time in the waiting room and lost their warm up, so a stride or two before the race and the first two laps was essentially the warm up and it paid off for Centro
It's unconnected to the Woody convo, but in 2016 I think the field mistakenly took for granted that the Kenyans would practice team tactics and make the pace honest like they did in 2015 or Chepseba kinda did in 2013. Manangoi didn't make it due to injury, and Cheruiyot DNQ as the 4th athlete. So with Kwemoi and Kiprop having no training relationship and Kiprop believing in his kick completely (based on 2013 and 2015 Worlds) there was no interest. The rest of the field had no willing leaders who believed a fast race was best for them. Iguider, Souleiman, Centro and Makhloufi were the guys with medal aspirations and none of them were guys who frequently took the lead from earlier than 300. I guess you can't really fault anyone besides Kiprop as all the big names outside of him finished high up in the race. Maybe you argue Iguider's strategy was bad for him.
I thought I saw an article a few years back where the RIO 1500m participants spent way too much time in the waiting room and lost their warm up, so a stride or two before the race and the first two laps was essentially the warm up and it paid off for Centro
While there may be some truth to that, the most significant factor is simply the individuals involved. Asbel Kiprop, Taoufik Makhloufi, Ayanleh Souleiman—these guys all fancied their chances in a last lap burn up. In this 5k, there will be many runners who’d prefer it to be fast for the last 2k off a decent tempo from the gun. Even Ingebrigtsen would probably prefer winding up from 1k out rather than leaving it to whoever can find a 51.xx on the day.
A few weeks ago on another thread that 1 or more or going to push from way out.
My probably wrong prediction, single file by a mile with Yomef leading, with Jakob and Berega close. Unless he grows some big kahunas Woody will be in the second pack and end up 7th or 8th, one of the initial 3 leaders blows up and is 10th.
A few weeks ago on another thread that 1 or more or going to push from way out.
My probably wrong prediction, single file by a mile with Yomef leading, with Jakob and Berega close. Unless he grows some big kahunas Woody will be in the second pack and end up 7th or 8th, one of the initial 3 leaders blows up and is 10th.
Don't know if Kejelcha wants to be the sacrificial lamb again blocking the wind and setting up the big guns. I think Aregawi and Kimeli might be more motivated than him to get to the front. Both guys like to control the action. Barega and Cheptegei are not shy about that either in the right circumstances. What should be especially fierce is at 300m to go, the only guys likely content to NOT be in the top 2 or 3 of the group and potentially trusting an explosive last 200 are Edris, Krop and Scott. Fisher, Aregawi, Kejelcha, Barega, Cheptegei, Kimeli, Jakob, Mo Ahmed are all guys who really want to be kicking from the front and will run hard for that position potentially.
This is not going to be a sit and kick race even if it's hot weather. With the talent facing off here, the "kick" is going to be the last 5 laps...sub-4 final mile to win.
I disagree. There'll be a kick, but it will be off a fast pace. As someone said further up the thread, there'll be surges throughout which will keep the pace honest, but will prevent a long wind-up of 4 laps or so. The winner will run a final lap of at least 55, more likely 52/53 from Barega or Aregawi. Winning time will be sub-13, maybe 12:50-low
Last year, Barega closed a 26:49 (13:25 5k pace) 10,000 in a 53s last lap, with a 25.5 last 200. Ahmed closed a 12:58 in 54.5 in the humidity of Tokyo for silver.
Woody is hitting 54s off a much slower pace. He can't spot the leaders any lead either.
He'll finish between 7-12th in the final. Still very respectable.
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