Rough Week: Grant Fisher Now Under 50-50 to Land a Medal?

He's 26:33 10000 runner, he should be top 5, top 3 on his best day.

He will not medal if it is hot, but I suppose Eugene is not too bad,??

you really think he had a chance - wow that is so cute

With Kiplimo looking really good and Aregawi in the 10k, it definitely makes it harder for Grant. Still, with how much better he was this spring compared to last year, and him still coming 5th, I think it's a bit higher than 20-80. Still lower than 50-50 though :/

Yes, though we should note that Kejelcha didn’t race to his abilities last year due to injury. That certainly helped Grant, but I’m not banking on it out of the 5 elite Ugandans/Ethiopians in this years race.

Being optimistic, I don’t think with everything being equal, Worku is necessarily as good as him nor are any of the 3 Kenyans (with Kandie not in the mix). Ahmed is banged up apparently and that’s another guy we can maybe expect him to beat at this point. So if there’re 4 guys who seem to have an edge, that’s not crazy that he can knock off 1 or 2 and maybe there’s an off-day/tactical blunder to help him.

His odds in the 5k must be in the single digits. There's way too much talent in that field, it's not like Tokyo.

In the 10k, I like his chances better, but I think that whether the pace is fast or slow, there is nothing Fisher can do to beat Barega, Cheptegei, and Aregawi. They're all better racers and all close faster off both fast and slow paces. Fisher needs to put himself close to the front of the race, and hope for a bit of luck. I still think his most likely position is 5th/6th

He also lost to a 27:00+ runner a couple months ago

How do you know that Ahmed is banged-up?

His best chance is in the 10,000 with the Ugandan's pushing the pace. Cheptegei said the plan was for Oscar Chelimo to run 26:40 pace in Tokyo, but the humidity/heat prevented him from going after it. Outside of that Chep has not run a slow championship race since 2016 (26:49 in 2017, 26:48 in 2019, 12:58 in 2021). The pace will almost certainly be hot and if it is I think Fisher should be firmly in the mix for top 5. If everything breaks his way and one or two of the Ethiopians/Ugandans has a slightly off day he can sneak in for a medal.

Id say 35% chance of a medal in the 10,000 and 10-15% in the 5,000.

Not sure why you think this? He finished 5th in the heat in Tokyo and ran well at the scorching Olympic Trials last year. I think he is a good hot weather runner, similar to Rupp.

Yes, the Ethiopian federation coming to reason and allowing their true studs to double is not good for anyone else’s chances. Before hearing that, I could imagine a scenario in which Barega/Cheptegei/Kiplimo are battling for gold with Fisher trailing in 4th, and one of the 3, maybe Kiplimo, slows in the last 150 and Fisher kicks past to take bronze. Now there are 4 athletes who are clearly favored over Fisher (the 4 who beat him in Tokyo).

20-80 doesn’t seem pessimistic to me. 50-50 was probably too optimistic before.

The men’s 5k is the middle/long distance event of the championships. Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Aregawi, Barega, Edris, Kejelcha, Kimeli, Krop, Ingebrigtsen, Ahmed, Fisher—that’s 11 men right there, and doesn’t even bring us to the Thierry Ndikumwenayos, Mohamed Mohumeds and Woody Kincaids of the world. I’d agree that Fisher’s medal chances in that event are slim—maybe 10%, at best.

Yeah he seems to do better in heat comparatively.

As a massive Fisher fan, I would not have put his medal chances at 50/50 beforehand. The 10k and 5k are just way too stacked. I would put his odds at maybe 20-25% across both distances if I have to guess. But if he's not in contention in the final 200m I would put that up as a disappointment. Actually getting to the line in a top 3 position is a whole other story, and not easily predictable in such stacked fields.

Since when is Kandie running the 10,000 at World’s?

Anybody here ever win a race or place top 3? Would it be the same if you did but knew your best competition was not available?

I hope everyone is healthy and at the top of their game. There are always surprises on gameday. Why not Fisher?

I have won races. Barega wasn’t racing though.

He didn’t race at Canadian nationals and he released an update that he was battling an ailment (I forget what)

Nice. Maybe you would have had a chance. You'll never know.

35%? That's crazy high, that's not sneaking a medal, it's a high probability in a race of 27 athletes. Once you start attaching odds to the other people in the field, then Fisher's chances reduce dramatically