Could go any way, but my prediction a couple months out is that Kiplimo wins here after being 3rd of the trio in the WC 10k.
Does the GNR have pacers though? Pacers would definitely play into the hands of the WR holder.
Kiplimo’s 3k in Stockholm was very encouraging. He ran sub-7:30 with a ~55.0 last lap, racing at the lower end of his world class range and it took a “freak performance” by the unknown Lobalu to beat him at the line.
Add me to the Kiplimo camp. Hes coming around nicely at just the right time.
None of the above. Someone else (preferably a Kenyan) will come from nowhere and win the race.
It's still downhill course? or they changed it?
Dion Marquise Hayes for the win.
Not directly relevant, but indirectly may affect how fussed the leading athletes are about the exact result, but if you saw how the GNR elite budget splits between appearance money and prize money you might be a little surprised.
Grant Fisher FTW
Kiplimo is the best at the distance, so I’d pick him. Barega and Cheptegei can prove me wrong but I think they will be more Mo Farah than Eliud Kipchoge when it comes to marathon success. That’s not to say they won’t win HMs/break 58…I think they will.
If healthy, Kiplimo will roll both of them easily on the roads. Kiplimo is an all-time talent (like Cheptegei and Barega) but is moreover utterly supreme on the roads. Over 13.1 Kiplimo has run 57:31 (an essentially entirely solo WR performance), 57:37 (only loss at the distance to Kandie's then 57:32 WR), and 57:56 in RAK after running an absurd 13:23-26:56 opening 10 kilometers. Not to mention him dismantling Kandie at the last half championships after a pedestrian (to them) opening first 10 kilometers, showing there's no reason to doubt him in more tactical / non-record assault type races such as the Great North Run.
I agree with the earlier poster that Kiplimo will likely be 3rd at best at the WC 10k. In general he doesn't seem to be able to put it together at track championships and this year I would be even more nervous considering he's only just opened his season after what must have been a long period of injury or some other issue. I could see him winning the WC by simply running 26:20 alone and dispatching with the others with a monstrous last 3 or 5 kilometers; but of course this is not likely in hot championship conditions and would require him to be at the peak of his physical abilities. In a conventional kick finish off anything less than a truly fast pace, he seems unlikely to win. (Although we must all remember he outkicked a certain Jakob Ing over 3000m not so many years ago - but the race time, 7:26, again suggests that his ability to kick for the win depends on the rarefied air of all-time fast performances).
