I think you're selling Flatt a little short. He should be #2 at worst, probably #1
He should be able to come through in 1:49-1:50 and then use his 4:12 mile / 22.01 200 speed to kick. the others have 800 PRs 2 seconds slower than him so they'd have to come through slower, and they also don't have the 200 speed he has
1. Colin Sahlman from Newbury Park 2. Aaron Sahlman from Newbury Park 3. Gary Martin from Archbishop Wood 4. Cade Flatt from Marshall County 5. Will Sumner from Woodstock 6. Wes Sumner from MPLS Southwest
Most likely 1. Sahlman 2. Martin 3. Flatt 4. Sumner
Definite gap between 1-2 and 3-4. 1200 favors the milers.
I agree with the second half, but I’m inclined to pick Martin, just because of that incredible solo 3:57. Sahlman has marginally better PBs but in a race I’m taking Martin every day.