Mantz confirms fall marathon

Will he break 2:10 in his debut?

Chicago with good weather, 2:08:54

New York with good weather, 2:10:36

He'd disappear in the field in Chicago. In New York he could grind his way to a top 10, maybe even fluke a top 5 on the right day. Don't forget the 2024 A standard is top 10 in a MM (or 2:11:30). Plus NY gives him the outside chance (still waiting🤞) to run 20k with Kipchoge.

Has he confirmed it will be stateside? Doesn't seem likely, but if he wants pure speed he could always do Berlin, London, Valencia...

He won't get an appearance fee in Europe. He's making his debut and has no accomplishments on his record so he's not a name over there. Chicago or New York will pay him - Chicago is the Nike marathon isn't it? That's seems likely

Relax.. he won't debut in 2:08, please be realistic.. He might hang with Reed Fischer in 2:10-11.

Yeah I was just thinking NYC would be a great race for him, to grind out those hills and make a splash.

Why not? The guy has a legit engine and is tough as nails. If he runs Chicago, I expect a 2:08-2:09 if conditions are good. This guy is way more talented than most of our marathoners and isn’t waiting until he’s washed.

I just don't believe it. 2:08 in a debut, no way.

This is great. Marathon will be his distance. Tough kid surrounded by the best coaches, mentors, and teammates. Under 2:08:55 in Chicago

I think you're right to be cautious. 2:08 is a historically good mark for a US athlete and the marathon is a different beast - just look at talents like Tadese, one of the greats over HM (58:23), never ran a great marathon (2:08).

On the other side, Scott Fauble ran 2:08 in Boston so you have to think Mantz can be around that level at some point. On a good day, maybe it can come on his debut.

Assuming good weather…

Chicago 2:07-2:08

NYC 2:09-2:10

He isn’t limited by the relative mediocrity of US marathoning. He is built for the marathon. He is a legit 5000/10000 guy (albeit with no track kick) who is running the marathon in his prime.

Are you serious? He’s a very strong runner and is currently in probably in about 13:05 shape A lot of runners have ran fast in their debuts and 2:10-11 would feel easy to him. I would put the over/under at 2:08 if he were to compete on a fast, certified course.

Watch the 2021 XC Champs when the iowa state dude took out at 2:30 for the first K of there 10k on grass. Conner went right with him and went right past him to and gapped the whole field the last K. He beat a lot of legit dudes at the half champs later in '21 and ran 1:00:55 which places him 9th ALL TIME on the USA list. That was his first half...

I'll never forget watching Ryan Hall hanging with the leaders until late in the Race and crushing it in his debut in 2:08 and then further improving to 2:06 a year later, both in London. Hall finished his NCAA career as a 5k guy, with a best of 13:16 and did a 28:07 in the 10k. Mantz's bests: 13:11 / 27:25. The weakest data: his HM is more than a minute slower than what Hall ran before his London debut. Whatever happens, it'll be exciting to see him go for it.

Mantz will destroy Fischer. With his dominance at 10k in the NCAA i always felt like he's a natural marathoner. Sub 2:10 debut easy. If he goes somewhere fast like Chicago I'm thinkin 2:08.

I agree, though it’s hard to get the marathon right until you’ve run a few. I think sub-2:11 would be a great debut, and I would actually expect sub-2:10 if it is Chicago AND the weather isn’t hot and miserable. Chicago would be a good one to run as it’s flat and Mantz is a metronome. So I’m going to say 2:09 and change is where he runs. Glad he is doing one now and not waiting.

Isn't Mantz going to try to threepeat this fall with the NCAA cross country? Won't training for a marathon mess up his preparation for the NCAAs?

2:09:44 if I have to put a time stamp on it.

With the milage these guys already do, I don't think one marathon would impact their training that much.