I genuinely think it’s probably about 2 seconds. If you look at the overall high school rankings, a 4:10 mile in 2018 ranks similarly to a 4:08 now. The 800 was less effected, a 1:52.00 in 2018 is ranking like a 1:51.5. I still believe Martin, and Salhman, and Rheinhart would’ve gone sub 4. Rheinhart ran 4:01 in those adidas avanti spikes in 2019.
Looking at high school data is not a good barometer because kids at the HS level are so far away from their potential. Kids can simply train closer to college-style training or pro-style training and get improvement. There will always be too many variables to isolate.
Looking at pro runners is a much better metric — and the only metric — to use. If the entire professional 1500m shifted down by 2 seconds, then we would be able to see obvious data. But instead, the 10th place male in the world each year since the super shoes has come out has been about the same as before.
So, unless they only work on college and high school kids, it can’t be the shoes.
Side note: Nike is good at this. When Nike came out with “it’s gotta be the shoes” campaign in the late 1980s, they took 20% additional market share in the basketball space.
”Super shoes” is just “it’s gotta be the shoes” 2.0.
Obviously the shoes are helping. Most studies find 3-5 second per mile and that tends to match observational data.
However, the real question is who cares. The shoes are getting us closer to our maximum performance. Kinda shows how doped up the 1500 and mile WR is considering nobody can get close in shoes that give you a 3-5 second boost. I think it’s cool and better for the sport to have faster times.
Obviously the shoes are helping. Most studies find 3-5 second per mile and that tends to match observational data.
However, the real question is who cares. The shoes are getting us closer to our maximum performance. Kinda shows how doped up the 1500 and mile WR is considering nobody can get close in shoes that give you a 3-5 second boost. I think it’s cool and better for the sport to have faster times.
Obviously if the shoes were not faster everyone wouldn't be wearing them. Race in a pair, you will never run/train in old style spikes again.
As far as this goes, it is simple. First when guys ran sub four 55 years ago, there were 203M people in the country. There are now over 330M.
Second overall coaching has gotten exponentially better. Especially HS, ask anyone.
Third , the advent of the internet makes , "what's really good" is right out there.
Fourth. Simply said, guys from the 70's 80's etc 90's even, had none of that available.
Fifth, there are TONS of set up races, Flatt ran his chasing in a pro race. . Same with Sahlman, not denigrating his 3:56.2, he is that good. Same with Webb, Martin? 3:57.x twice with no help once and barely any again.Yet not one guy has run under Granville mark yet in a NON set up race.
, but Webb ran waaaay faster 20 years ago. Same type of race. NO super shoes. And most educated folks think Webb at that level of fitness could have easily run 8:30 for two miles then. Jim Ryun ran 8:25 as a 19 year old frosh. 54 years ago.
Glanville ran his with no "super shoes" 26 years ago, no pacing.Alone? Shouldn't that be broken in 26 years in paced races?
Guys should be better than 20-40 years ago, they are in every sport, not just track and field, I hear nothing about Knight running 19.49 at 200 an absurd mark at 18?
We should be having 5+ guys running sub 4 every year, it is 40-50 years later with all the info.
And... there have been 3 guys in a year before this
Shoes help? I guess, no one says Ingerbritsen has shoe help? Why? he has been running absurd stuff since 17? You know why ? No one says anything about HIS shoes? He has not broken one drug helped mark yet? Not yet.
Hocker ran 3:31,x at 20, Jim Ryun ran 3;33.1, what is so hard to figure here? We should have guys at 18-19 running 1:45.5 , after all it is 26 years later and super shoe and Brazier like numbers in the 800, at U20?we have one? Brazier at 19, is way ahead ?
I say this for every sport and I am older for sure..You can only be great in the era you are in...simple concept
Most of the nay sayers on here, might be old timers, I hope not, because they of all folks should get this. Ryun ran 3:55 50+ years ago..Marty 55 years ago, Webb 3:53.x 20 years ago,shouldn't we have guys breaking and challenging records every year?
Today ...1-5 in a HS mile, no pacers went 3:59.x-4:01.x this is a good thing. Embrace it, don't trash it.
The new sub-4 guy was in the same spikes when he ran his 4:07 PR in April and his 3:59 PR today. You'll have to do some explaining.
You really need this to be explained? Runners can still improve. This is a variable of course ESPECIALLY young runners like this kid but theoretically all runners. The shoes are another variable. So let us say the kid might have run 4:09 in April and 4:01 today on the old shoes. Do you grasp this?
The new sub-4 guy was in the same spikes when he ran his 4:07 PR in April and his 3:59 PR today. You'll have to do some explaining.
Yeah this whole thing is kinda dumb. My friend ran 1:51.98 in February in Nike Zoom Rival S9s. Then in May all he improved to was 1:51.3x despite wearing the super shoes (granted this was a solo effort compared to the first race being paced, but still). If the spikes helped even 2 seconds per mile, this would imply my friend actually regressed throughout the season (which was not the case, as he went from 49.5 to 48.1 and 4:25 to 4:18 during the same time).
The new sub-4 guy was in the same spikes when he ran his 4:07 PR in April and his 3:59 PR today. You'll have to do some explaining.
Yeah this whole thing is kinda dumb. My friend ran 1:51.98 in February in Nike Zoom Rival S9s. Then in May all he improved to was 1:51.3x despite wearing the super shoes (granted this was a solo effort compared to the first race being paced, but still). If the spikes helped even 2 seconds per mile, this would imply my friend actually regressed throughout the season (which was not the case, as he went from 49.5 to 48.1 and 4:25 to 4:18 during the same time).
I am sure this is beyond your ability to understand, but even if the new shoes improve a mile by 2 seconds that does not necessarily mean they would improve a half mile by 1 second. Try to think about that for awhile. I would rather not have to explain this. Can you understand?
James Carville? Your handle alone is a bit of a joke. Guys should be running faster..at least use data points, you are a disgruntled non sensible guy with no data to support your points.
Go to every distance save, one or two? 800 Granville, no shoes, no set ups
Webb, no shoes..same setup as Sahlman
Verzbikas..no shoes..no set up 18 when he did that
Keep at it buddy..you are making your point
Kessler ? 4 of the top U20 15's of any U20 of ALL time, yes he wears better shoes
Just Like Webb, Verzbikas had better tracks
Yet in all the 800's run of all time? ALL time, not one guy has Granville's mark
Give me something here, Guys like Centro Sr. ran 4:02 in 1972
Yeah this whole thing is kinda dumb. My friend ran 1:51.98 in February in Nike Zoom Rival S9s. Then in May all he improved to was 1:51.3x despite wearing the super shoes (granted this was a solo effort compared to the first race being paced, but still). If the spikes helped even 2 seconds per mile, this would imply my friend actually regressed throughout the season (which was not the case, as he went from 49.5 to 48.1 and 4:25 to 4:18 during the same time).
I am sure this is beyond your ability to understand, but even if the new shoes improve a mile by 2 seconds that does not necessarily mean they would improve a half mile by 1 second. Try to think about that for awhile. I would rather not have to explain this. Can you understand?
Okay but even if it was half a second improvement, you’re telling me someone who improved by much more in other events only got marginally better throughout the whole year in the in-between event? I personally find that hard to believe. And that doesn’t even just apply to my friend, worldwide, there hasn’t been much of an improvement in pro times.
(Also his pace for an 800 is not too far off the pace these shoes were probably designed for as that converts to a 3:43 mile pace, unless you’re saying these shoes were built exclusively for high school mile paces).
Zapotes, why bother, he has no idea, no historical perspective and is clueless, just like understanding what the 3 pointer does to scoring averages when they take 75-80 a game, or why Passing % is up in Pro Football when teams now throw 8 yard slants