If you are using racing as a guide, 4th for a soph and 10th (Johnson) has you doubting a different individual, in a different event? And if you are using times from a championship race versus time trial type racing, why? They are very different animals.
Even if it were a collapse, what does that have to do with Nichols? Why not base Nichols potential on DeGenero or Boreman who both ran smart and smooth?
Are you worried about other individuals based on how a teammate did in a different event? The vaunted NC State looked terrible in the 1500, but that has nothing to do with teammates upcoming events.
I believe you are just making conversation and that is all I am trying to do in return as well.