U.S. chances at 5000m in the world stage

Not sure if American women can be competitive against African women in the 5000m at the world scene for the next 3 years but I'm sure we the same young talented runner in mind for this question, Katelyn Tuohy.

Shelby, she is not done yet....

im clearly biased and i like to think that katelyn tuohy is america's hope in the 5000m although i know not everyone would think that way but i believe she has so much potential to be a really really good 5000m runner in the future, because of her 1500m time.

i used to think she should be a 1500m runner / miler based on her built (closer to purrier) but i think katelyn being a fast 1500m runner gives her more potential to succeed at 5000m

Americans should focus on 1500m

As for the men, they would have to be under 13:00 to be in the ballpark. I do not see a whole lot of possibility in the next 3 years. American's have forgotten how hard breaking 13:00 is. We will have a several between 13:00 and 13:10 but sub 13:00?

Hey Katelyn. Pretty cool that you use the boards. I don't think this is a hot take, you're clearly rangy enough to run both.

Hard to believe that Fisher and others wouldn't be competitive at the next games. Not a Centro fan at all, but with his latest withdrawal, maybe he finally moves up to the 5k. Not far removed from he and Kincaid running sub-13

As for Fisher and others they need to see if they can compete in the Diamond League.

She isn't fast in the 1500. She isn't fast in the 5000. Her 1500 time would have been 29th in the US last year.

I don't disagree though the DL seems to be quite watered down even Pre pandemic. Hasn't been since Kjelecha and Berega were hot that it's been worth a watch. I like Fisher better in championship style racing.

The US women have done nothing yet this year. Tuohy is not close to the top Americans and the top Americans are not close to being world class other than Houlihan. Tuohy has made such small improvements over the past 5 years as opposed to the elite Americans that there is no reason to believe that her lifetime potential is more than 4 minutes and 15 minutes. Those are great times for the NCAA but they are JV type times on a world stage.

I can see Nur and Teare going sub 13 this year, and Coop can close like a train, so I'd say we honestly are more within reach of medaling than we usually are.

"....other than Houlihan."

LOLLL. You just answered your own point.

People need to pump the breaks on Katelyn Tuohy. Ya she's pretty good, but still a long ways away from being relevant on the world level, really the national level as well. She ran 15:14 PR for 5,000 meters and 4:06 1500. Last year there were 10 US women who ran 14:58 or better, so she's still over 100 meters back from making a US team, and over a dozen women running faster than her 1500. And that's just making the US team. Winning a medal is an even bigger jump from that, you've got to be a sub 14:30 runner to even think you have a shot at a global medal in women's 5k, so Tuohy is about 300 meters back in a 5k right now from global medalists. And she hasn't really been improving at a fast rate, she ran 15:37 in 2018, now four years later she's down to 15:14. Even if she keeps the same rate of improvement she'll only be 14:51 at age 24, and we all know that time is harder to knock off as you get faster so she'd be doing very well just to get under 15 in the next few years. Still a far cry from sub 14:30 which you need to realistically have a chance at a medal.

The obvious answer is Grant Fisher, and Chelimo has already won olympic silver and been in contention a couple of other times so I guess maybe he can still do it if he returns to form. In a couple more years I wouldn't be surprised if Teare is a real medal contender at 5k.

3 ladies who only ran 4 minutes last year were in the Tokyo final. They did not place high, but if that is jv, that is a tough standard. I have no idea how fast of a 1500 Tuohy might run in 2 years, but I think a month ago many questioned if she would get to 4:05.

Obvious answer: Grant Fisher

Last year 15 runners broke 13:00 for 5000 with two runners under 12:50. Only one american in the top 15, Paul Chelimo. 13 of these times were done on the international circuit. We have got to do better at competing at his level.