Colin Sahlman in 2022 Prefontaine meet mile. How fast will he run?

Slower than 3:53

It will be a rainy and windy day. No records will be set in any event.

Hopefully he just hangs tight for the first 3.25 laps then kicks. The back half of this field could still run 3:55 if this race goes as fast as possible

This. I wonder how many recruits Oregon loses due to the dreary weather.

Super excited as well, but sub-3:53 is highly unlikely. If I were him, I'd be content with anything sub-3:58 and thrilled with a sub-3:56

3:57

He ran 3:39 for 1500 2 weeks ago. That puts him in 3:55 to 3:56 shape for the full mile. With the adrenaline rush of running Pre in Eugene, he could go a second or two faster than that.

3:39.59 * 1.08 = 3:57.2

He closed in 55sec. Definitely in shape for 3:53-55

<4mph winds and 66% chance of rain, I say attempts still have a shot

Oregon can show bad rain and wind, then boom it's great conditions . Definitely has a shot at a good day

Where do you see that? I see 12-14 mph winds all afternoon.

Right—saying that 3:39.59 is "3:55 shape" is a stretch, but even if you grant that, AND if there's good weather, AND if the adrenaline rush gets him an extra 2 seconds, that's still 3:53, not 3:52. Essentially, if all conditions are perfect and he is actually multiple seconds faster than a time he just ran only 2 weeks ago, there is a SLIM chance he could go sub-3:53.

Again, nothing against the kid. He's insanely fast and my prediction is that if the conditions are right he crushes his old PR and runs 3:55.5 or so (for the record, 3 seconds faster than his current PR). That's still a freaking ridiculous time for a high schooler. But don't let the hype get out of control and start predicting unrealistic times.

"Saturday 05/28

58% / 0.38 in

Overcast with rain showers at times. High near 60F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%."

same 1500 PR as the athlete special. i think your conversion is a little off either way

but him closing in 55 shows at least 3:36-7 fitness

3:54.55. Just under Ryun but over Webb.

i agree with this

Get Gary Martin in this race NOW!!!! Why wait ?!?! offer him a spot and fly his ass out there and let’s do this - they will only help to improve each other!!!!!