There was a pandemic. There're plenty of guys on the track who can run fast right now. Yes, Kenya is down a bit due to guys moving to the roads. That has been more than offset by Uganda having 2 amazing guys. It is only a matter of time until some really fast times are run.
How does Uganda having 2 amazing guys offset a large number of the most talented Kenyans focusing on the marathon, as far as sheer numbers of annual sub-13 runners?
How does Uganda having 2 amazing guys offset a large number of the most talented Kenyans focusing on the marathon, as far as sheer numbers of annual sub-13 runners?
I’m less sure that a lot of the marathoners were going to be sub-13 runners. I think potential sub-13 guys run the 10,000 and instead of doing track 5ks they do HMs and shorter road races. the arguable guys for me are Kandie, Mathaiko (who might try his hand at the 5k), Kwemoi, Kamworor and Rhonex.
I looked at the 2000s and the average number of sub 13 Kenyans per year was around 6 (8 or 9 was the highest I saw). This year they have 2 should-be locks in Kimeli and Ebenyo with Krop as someone who definitely should be under. So with the Ugandans that’s 5, and Oscar Chelimo could be 6.
The way times are progressing it wouldn’t shock me if ten guys did it. Take all the guys you mentioned then add another 10 or so that make a big jump, then do a Bowerman style time trial. I’d bet Teare, Nir, and Nico Young for sure.
What’s your point? If your explanation for the lack of a massive shift in 5k times is that all the best talent moved to the roads, and now the combination of inferior athletes + superior shoes is keeping us in line with past years, it simply doesn’t work. Look at any athlete who was already fast prior to 2019 and see what they’re running now. Hell, just look at the ridiculous “drop off” many of them had in a single year:
If what you’re saying is true, the top 5k athletes got 21 seconds slower on average from 2018 to 2019. Somehow we went from three guys breaking 12:50 in one year to no one (including those same three guys) being able to do it in the last three years. Good luck explaining that.
This is not a hard concept to understand.
There is less top talent running the 5k right now as it has moved to the roads. If that talent would have stayed in the 5k, you would see an explosion of faster times in that event
Instead, that talent has moved to the roads where you have seen an explosion of faster times (ie, half marathon/marathon).
Wrong. If there was going to be an “explosion of faster times,” we already would have seen it at the top end. There are four active athletes who are top 10 all-time in the 5k (how’s that for talent?). Three of them set their PBs prior to the release of the super spikes, so why haven’t any of them blown away (or even matched) their old marks with the new shoe tech?
There is a guy named Colin Sahlman who might break 13 in 2024 and another guy named Gary Martin who might join him. With the shoes and smart training they both have the talent to do it but it is possible it would be more likely in 2025 or 2026.