Ah, the quest for sub-2:18. If you ask rojo, it might be worth 2:40 pre-supershoes. If you ask certain YouTubers, it’s obtainable—but they’ve been unlucky with not-perfect conditions, or nutrition gone wrong, or cramping, or breathing, or poor sleep, or stride length, or starting position, or—you get my point.
Current marathon training is much different with the evolution of supershoes, and I’m curious to see what other people are doing. How many weeks is your buildup? Peak mileage? Key workouts? And what race is everyone targeting? CIM? Houston? Grandmas?
In my opinion, you need to be in 2:16 shape to run 2:18. That 2-minute buffer should account for a slightly long course, race day mishaps, going out too fast etc.
PS - Sage if you’re seeing this (I know you are) congrats on the 2:18! That’s huge.