Race - Sunday, April 10
Seth’s ‘Thon PR 2019 Amsterdam 2:23:40
His goal is OTQ 2:18:00
My guess - 2:20:30
Winner of the contest will receive special arrangements to come up with new slogan to replace “Butter My Bread”, “Come On Now”, or “Not Feelin’ It”.
I predict one the biggest bonks in YouTube runner history.
no speed work + too high mileage + terrible nutrition + bad sleep habits + international travel = biggest bonk in YouTube runner history
2:24+ (down to 2:29, if a complete bonk)
No positive signs from the training and is constantly in a hole. The HM at the beginning of March was 68:59 with a heavy positive split (based on his Strava, not his YouTube - though I appreciate it was very humid). Also his recent 3x5K showed he couldn't hit goal pace for even 15K atm. Finally his recent video ominously talking about 'taking time off of running is ok' seems to indicate not really being in the right headspace either.
I would give his fitness the benefit of the doubt but there also hasn't seemingly been enough sessions in the build up.
Heavy positive split predicted.
oh yeah, I forgot about the whole 'not sleeping' thing too..
Slower than 2:40. Epic bonk after going out too hard. Decides to jog it in and ham it up. Like NYC, turns failure into a week long pity party.
His training doesn' t indicate anything too reassuring so I predict another blowup, albeit not as bad as NYC. There has been alot of moaning about his legs and lack of sleep in recent videos as well.
He goes out too quick, like 01:08ish, and then slows down massively and finishes in 02:28-30.
What will the excuse be though? I' ve been to Rotterdam. The portion sizes are not too big. The course is dead flat.
2:27:54
2:24:58
TMADDDHASFNE wrote:
Race - Sunday, April 10
Seth’s ‘Thon PR 2019 Amsterdam 2:23:40
His goal is OTQ 2:18:00
My guess - 2:20:30
Winner of the contest will receive special arrangements to come up with new slogan to replace “Butter My Bread”, “Come On Now”, or “Not Feelin’ It”.
I think we will run 2:22:23 based on the amount of junk food he eats.
I like sjd and hope he gets the otq. Realistically he will probably be on pace through the half around 1:08.30 ish and then will start to fade. By 30k he will be off pace and bring it in at 6:30-7 min miles. 2:24.05.
TMADDDHASFNE wrote:
Race - Sunday, April 10
Seth’s ‘Thon PR 2019 Amsterdam 2:23:40
His goal is OTQ 2:18:00
My guess - 2:20:30
Winner of the contest will receive special arrangements to come up with new slogan to replace “Butter My Bread”, “Come On Now”, or “Not Feelin’ It”.
I think Seth should run with the pacers for the lead women through at least ten miles (presuming they are on 2:19-2:20 pace). If he has the fitness for an OTQ, he can pick it up and see what happens. If he is not in OTQ shape, maybe he can hold on for a PR.
My guess is 2:19:43.
Let's Run posters are positive, encouraging and optimistic towards other people's efforts reaching their goals. Aren't they?
2:32
If he wasn't president of the international conglomerate Demoor Global Running, he'd DNF at 16-17 miles.
But as content is king, he'll ham his way in around 2:40 in this, his last-ever serious marathon.
2:43 - Goes out 1:07ish, starts thinking about hitting the qualifier and his celebratory meal of one cup of baby spinach (no dressing) and 3 almonds but by mile 22 the tank is empty and he's doing the walk of shame
nottruelove wrote:
The portion sizes are not too big.
Still shaking my head that he legitimately used this as an excuse for his blow up.
Pretty crazy how people in NYC have zero control over what they eat. You don't get to choose what restaurant you walk into, or what you order, or how much you eat. It's all just forced upon you. All that training thrown away, just to become another victim of the giant portion sizes in NYC. 🙄
Watching him is infuriating. He has the talent to go sub-2:18. Pulling off a 2:16 or 2:17 would elevate him into a much higher-tier of runners. He'd be the loveable overly-positive goof who actually puts out very solid, even borderline-elite times.
But instead the bozo spends countless hours running 100+ MPW at 8:30/mile pace, no speedwork, poor nutrition, not enough rest.... He could straight-up skip 20 of his very easy miles each week. Cut out the zone-0 runs and ride a bike with your kids instead. Replace another 20 easy miles with intervals, tempo runs, and even marathon pace work. He'd have 5-6 extra hours each week to sleep, and he'd probably sleep much better.
It's like the guy took a training plan for a 100-miler ultra and uses it for road marathons. And funny enough he sucks at ultras.
He has the talent, the frame, the body, the experience.... and he insists on doing more work that makes him a worse runner. It's not like he's cutting corners and saving a bunch of time and accepting a 2:23 PR as a tradeoff.
It's infuriating to see him p*ss it away. Congrats on being a one-trick PP pony. And that gravy train is almost certainly going to end soon as well.
My prediction is 2:28.
LAZARUS LAKE'S ASHTRAY wrote:
But instead the bozo spends countless hours running 100+ MPW at 8:30/mile pace, no speedwork, poor nutrition, not enough rest.... He could straight-up skip 20 of his very easy miles each week. Cut out the zone-0 runs and ride a bike with your kids instead. Replace another 20 easy miles with intervals, tempo runs, and even marathon pace work. He'd have 5-6 extra hours each week to sleep, and he'd probably sleep much better.I
Lol brutal but so so true. I predict 2:25
2:34:40