How good of a runner can one become given 5 years of consistent and good training

2:55 - 2:59.

Impossible to tell.

You might get under 3:15 for Marathon. I don't see 2:40 in your future but I have been wrong before.For a 2:40 Marathon you need a 10k time of sub 35 minutes, that's a lot faster than your current 10k PR.

You need to get faster and run a decent weekly mileage while not getting injured. And that not getting injured part is the difficult part.

Also there is no average. All letsrun posters are not average, they are runners already and quite more talented for that, than Joe Average. People forget that here a lot.

You started running seriously last year and have a 50-miler completed?

Yes, I played a bunch of pick up soccer games and frisbee games and ran a few times a week for about a year before I trained for the 50 mile in about 4 months.

I figured that, I assume this LRC is not representative of the gen pop, I guess I was thinking average runner outside LRC but I think you're right "average runner" can really mean a lot of things, therefore its not really useful

After 5 years of pretty serious running from late teens to early twenties I lowered my mile PR about 20 seconds and my marathon PR about 26 minutes. (Miler type, not long distance type)

That 21:58 is really promising. In one year, you should be able to extend that to a full marathon, so around 3:05.

In five years? 2:40 seems reasonable.

That helps put it into perspective. Lol. I'm guessing I'm too optimistic about getting to 2:40 in 5 years when I'm likely in 3:50 - 4:15 shape now. *Recalibrating goals and expectations...*

If these are your PRs and your goal is a 2:40 marathon you need to get much faster over the mile. As it stands, your mile PR x 26.2 miles would be slower than your goal time. Either adjust your marathon goal upwards or lose more than a minute off your mile PR.

Would you focus more on the shorter distances first? or would you just hammer marathon training year round(maybe peak twice a year).

Also a Boston qualifier would be nice even if I don't ever get to 2:40.

That's probably the lowest hanging fruit for me to develop

It’s kind of impossible to know what your higher end potential is with only this much info. Could you run 2:40? It’s certainly possible but very very far from where you are now. Run 50 mpw for another year and break 20 in a 5k for starters.

Hammer the marathon training if that’s what your end goal is. Don’t fall into the trap of only training at your current fitness paces. If you’re a 3:40 guy and you train to run 3:30, you’re going to run around 3:30. If you’re a 3:40 guy and you train to run 2:55, you might run 3:15-3:20.

The way to progress that will have the highest ceiling would be to develop speed over shorter distances first and then extend that to progressively longer distances. This way you'll learn proper running mechanics and not overdo the mileage too early in your progression.

I would cycle through 12 weeks base (with emphasis on running economy and threshold) and then follow that up with 6 weeks of race-specific prep, take a week off and then repeat.

Each cycle you should be getting faster and you can also gradually increase volume as well.

If your goal is a 2:40 marathon, first step is a sub-5 mile, then a sub-17 5k, then a sub-35 10k, then a 1:16-1:17 half, and then finally a marathon. If you do this right, you will also be building up your mileage so that when your speed is finally ready you will also be ready to do real marathon mileage (80mpw+).

It might take more than 5 years. Just try to maximize your speed first at the 1mile-5k before the 10, before the half, etc...

Jaba, I like TheWolf's approach. I would add two things. The path to bigger goals is achievement of smaller ones first. When I was working on my speed, I kept track of my PRs at every distance from 200 to two miles. As long as my training was getting me a PR in one of them, then I knew I was on the right path and then made adjustments in the workouts to get the ones that were lagging. For example, in the mile, you don't just go from 6:28 to breaking 5:00. You might have 10-15 mile PRs along the way. The second thing is that even with five years past a baseline, most runners (not the smaller group that read and post here) but most humans never break 3 hours in the marathon even with 5 years of training. Look at the results of the NYC or Chicago marathons. See what percentage of finishers are sub 3. Hint, it's much smaller than 20 percent. Then see what percentage of sub three runners are sub 2:40. Hint, it's much smaller than 20 percent. Same with sub 5 in the mile. Some people do it their first day running as teens, others within a month or two of training, but most it takes years or never. Do all of the running you wish, but don't let your goals limit your training or your enjoyment of your running. Put the carrot of achievement at the end of a stick, not the end of an airplane runway. Grabbing previously unattainable carrots was one of my joys in running. There were people I chased years after year, national leaders and all timers, but none as satisfying as my own PRs, which let me to place better in competition against people who used to beat me. Never was a champion and in the big races, they didn't even know I was behind them, but I trained smarter and passed more and more people season by season which was great fun. Five years is 20 quarters or seasons. Have a good training season and set new PRs. Do that 19 more times. Where you end up will be interesting, but don't let your long range goals keep this from being a strong training season. Good luck.

2:40 is not that fast.

Suggest you run for five years and find out. There really is no way to say. The answer is different for absolutely everyone

Sometimes Commenter Thanks for the advice, I very much like the idea of 20 quarters and setting short term goals as stepping stones for the larger goal. 5+ years is a long time afterall and it would help to have some achievements to look forward to as I progress.

Also, I'm not too wedded to the 2:40 goal. It's just a "realistic-ish" target to set for myself to get me motivated for running. Once I achieve that, I would like to explore more of the ultra races and just enjoy running.

Public school It's all relative my guy! For you, maybe not so much, but for a fledgling 4:00 guy (if that), that's crazy fast!

However, I would hesitate to say people's times are slow though. For LRC maybe its in the 10th percentile, but it's my fastest at the moment though. My wife ran a 42min 5k pb, you best believe we celebrated the achievement.