Can we finally declare Teare as a real global threat?

Teare is on a nice trajectory. I’d like his chances to make a 15 team rn and sneak into a Worlds final. In the 5, I still think he’s unlikely to do better than 4th but Woody is on notice.

I think your conversion is a bit generous, but I do think he could sneak under 13 in a better setup race. Hes also not at the level of Chep/Jakob/Ahmed etc. yet, but I think hes good enough to make a global final at this point.

The problem is the 5k is pretty stacked at the US level, with Chelimo/Fisher real medal threats, and Kincaid a dangerous kicker especially in a slow US race. He might be better off focusing on the 1500 where Hocker is the only global caliber guy + Engels/Nuguse/Centro all have their question marks so far this year.

A threat to what? He might challenge the top 3 in heat prelims.

In two years if he stays healthy and nothing else goes wrong, sure.

No. Run the time, like Grant Fisher. And I dont mean run 12:45 equivalents twice like Fisher did. I mean just break 13 first, or get close to 12:55.

Putin is a real global threat. Cooper Teare, not so much.

We’ll likely never know. He’s a threat to Hocker and the third tier college kids he races in obscure domestic meets though.

Yes, he must be stopped now. All this talk about climate change when Cooper Teare is the real threat to the future of the world.

Call me when his PR is better than Matt Centrowitz' and I'll consider this crazy statement.

The guy who got done by Geordie Beamish in a 3000m? Nah, I don't think Cheptegei, Ahmed, Jakob, and Kiplimo are losing much sleep over him. I can see him getting on the US team if Chelimo isn't in the best shape, and if he gets on, he could make the World final which would be nice for him.

One problem I see with the americans is that they can run with the best of them, but they can't do it back-to-back in a championship setting. Probably because they almost never enter competitions.

I dont think this is true at all. American runners can never keep up with the best of them in one off fast races on the DL, but will overperform in championship races. Outside of Jager and the occasional Rupp 10,000 (Pre 2014) when has an american distance runner been consistently competitive on the DL?

Meanwhile, Manzano/Rupp/Centro/Chelimo have all medaled in global finals in recent years despite not having the fastest prs in the field. So not sure I would agree with the characterization they cant do it in a championship setting

Even if his 13:06 was worth a 12:48, which it certainly is not, he wouldn't be a global threat.

We have to shift our perspective on times, for two reasons: the general level is higher and the shoes help a lot.

There are 3-5 guys who will be in 12:3x shape for the World Championship 5k (Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Jakob, Barega, and potentially one of the other Ethiopians). That's the fitness it will take to win a medal. There are 3-5 guys who will be in 12:4x-to 12:55 shape for the US Championship 5k (Chelimo, Woody, Fisher, and any number of the other Bowerman guys if they get back to form). That's the fitness it will take to make a team.

Can Teare break 13 this year? For sure. Can he make a U.S. team? Maybe. Will he get blasted at Worlds if he does? For sure.

I'm not bashing him, either. Give him a couple years and he might be in the conversation. Look at how far Grant Fisher has come.

Hahahahaha! New to track and field? Go look up and see where 12:48 stands on the all time list. I’m hoping your post is totally sarcastic, as that would otherwise be stratospheric levels of fanboy adulation.

Yes, the US 1500 team is wide open, more so than the 5000, and Teare has been every bit as good at the mile right now as he has been at the 5000. In the long run the 5000 might be a better race for him, but right now, it’s a toss up. In neither race is he a global medal threat, but the next step should be making a wc team. I think he should focus on the 1500 for USAs this cycle.

I absolutely guarantee you right now that there will not be 3-5 Americans in 12:4x-12:55 shape at any point this year. There's one right now, and there'll only be one by the end of the year.

I swear to god, people are losing all sense of times at the minute. Even the idea that there will be 3-5 guys in 12:3x shape at the World level is just ridiculous. There's only been 4 guys EVER that have been in 12:3x shape, the chances of 3-5 being in that kind of shape in the same year is close to zero.

Being a global threat would require him running against the best athletes on the globe, not just his buddy Cole.

"Global threat" in the 5k means at least sub 12:50 these days. And it would mean a top five finish in a major international race with all the top talent running. Has Teare ever even left America? That said, he's is in a great place and clearly improving. Excited to see what he might do defending his home turf in Eugene both at Pre and at Worlds.

There are 2 very strong prospects in Barega (12:43 PB, and improving every year) and Cheptegei (12:35 PB and running a 5K WR attempt) to be in sub-12:40 shape. Now, you might think it's ridiculous but the ceiling of runners like Kejelcha (12:46 PB), Aregawi (7:26i solo + 12:48), Kiplimo (HM World Record, 26:33 in non-super spikes), and Jakob (12:48 and improving) is very high. Sub-12:40 is a stretch to expect out of any one of them this year, but can one guy get there? Maybe.

As for the Americans thing, Paul Chelimo is typically in the outer edge of your 12:45-12:55 range regardless of what his PB is. He's a racer, not time-trialer, but assuredly in 12:55 shape to get these medals. Woody has run 12:58 and was in great shape last year. He blitzed the last lap in his 13:05 at BU, and paced 7,400 of Fisher's 10K. Not a stretch to think he could reach 12:55 fitness - he is better than he was in 2019. Nor is it for Teare given he has the speed to do it and has steadily gotten stronger. There's a huge difference between 12:54 in a perfect time trial and 12:46 on the DL as far as the world stage.