Rupp prediction for NYC half

Meh, I say 61:30 for 4th and then shortly after we’ll learn that he’s coming back from being banged up and he was just using this as a workout

okidoki Obie's here

Here's what I wrote based on his 15k performance: "I'd be surprised if he breaks 62. He hasn't been in great form for a while and he's never been a particularly great time trialer in the half/full. NYC is not a fast course."

Then I read a RunnersWorld interview (going to start a separate thread for it) in which he was bullish on his fitness. I also realized how well he ran in Chicago right after the Olympics. I'll say 61:15, a really solid performance on that course.

He ran 60:22 on this course in like 2009, so I really think given marathon strength and shoes, he should be 59:30 or better, but I do not know who else is in the race that might take it at that pace.

He looked great in the 15k until he suddenly fell back and I saw him grimace. The article explains what that was about, but it sounds like it is something that he has been dealing with for a few years. Hopefully, they have it worked out. I'm predicting 60:10.

The course has changed a few times over the years. Can't remember back to 2009, but for a long stretch in the 2010s you had a loop of the park (rolling hills) then a flat and fast trip down the west side highway for about half the race, usually with the wind at your back.

Now it goes the other way, with more hills late and better chance of headwind.

Much tougher, at least for this hobby jogger.

I'll go 61:47.

DNS - high pollen count

In his best 10k form with the super shoes he probably could have been 57 high, ideally. 58xx at least.

Sadly he had more footspeed back then. His legspeed has been declining since then, as I've blogged about at length on here, so he can no longer break the American Record.

Breaking 61 would now be a good target for him.

If Albert Salazar still coached him, we might still be looking at a 59.

Albert LOVED working on Galen's high end leg speed velocity and LOVED taking these races extremely seriously.

Now it's just a crapola tuneup

No he did not. You are not even close to knowing the facts.

What are you talking about? Rupp has never ran this course?

He ran this race in 2011.

Maybe it was a different course.

He did so because of an earthquake in New Zealand that cancelled his track race. He was still a track runner. This shows, as I've blogged about at length on here, he needed TRACKSPEED to run a good half marathon. To this day, that's still his best LEGITIMATE half marathon.

Rupp ran a 1:00:30 in 2011 on the old course. I think you accurately describe the old course although it may have been slightly downhill to the finish in the Wall Street area.

The current course (since 2018?) starts in Prospect Park in Brooklyn and is pretty hilly the first half with a huge climb over the Manhattan Bridge at mile 5. Only the last mile is in Central Park. I don't think anyone has broken 1:02:00 on the current course.

So in short he’s a hobby jogger

Oh yea, just like every lackluster performance from an American athlete in the past 20 years

Please follow the sport before opining.

Correct. The old course was actually not that slow if you happened to have the wind at your back on the WSH. If I recall correctly that year Rupp, Farah, and Gebre Gebremariam dueled over the last couple hundred meters and Rupp got dropped pretty hard. Farah won by like a second.