Then they will negative split, 12:47 and 12:53 for 5000 runner should be able to go sub 13:20 for a sub 27 Time Evan Jager if he is back at his best could as well, I hope Kincaid as well but it will be close, I hope for lots of Personal Best's for Men and Women.
After Grant's 12:53, one has to think that if the pace allows, he could give Rupp's AR a real scare. But if they're going through at that 13:40 (probably actually a little faster on race day, I could see a low 13:30s) I don't think a sub 26:50 will happen. I'm going to say: Grant 26:54.46 Scott 26:55.98 Ahmed: 26:56.21 Kincaid: 26:56.79
These are only for the sub 27s. This could get a lot deeper if I went all in.
The pacers for the rest of field, yes. 13:40 will get them to 27:20, well under the 27:28 WC Q standard.
However, per Grant's podcast, he/his teammates -- and others who choose to go with them -- will be going out at 13:30 pace or faster. Meaning, a separate pacers for this elite-of-the-elite group.
In other words, there will effectively be two races within the men's WC Q race.
There has been some speculation that Jager and McGorty are the rabbits like they were last year. However, since Courtney Frerichs has apparently stated on social media she is racing the full 10k for the first time, mostly likely Evan & Sean will be doing the same.
Only BTC distance guy missing is last year's champ Marc Scott who just won the British 3k champs, is currently not entered, and most likely will remain in England to train for World Indoors in a few weeks.
Given the results we've seen since 2020 w/WaveLight, coupled with expected perfect distance running weather -- and now with fans -- there is very real possibility that we will see several under or very close to 27:00, with a 26:40 winner a long shot but within reach.
Question to be answered: will WaveLight be set to sub-27 pace for the BTC group up front? Or, will it be set at 13:40 or whatever for the rest of the field to get them under the 27:28 WC standard?
So, makes sense to set up a national/world class 10k now instead of waiting for the Payton Jordan meet in early May.
Also, The TEN falls within the qualifying window for 2023 Worlds so runners in the fast heat can get that standard out of the way -- although the 2023 Q time has yet to be determined but will likely be faster that 27:28.
LRC note. We added in the part about the winds to the title and also took out an off topic insult in the post. The wind forecast for San Juan Capistrano is 21 mph at 6pm (gusts to 26), 18 mph at 8 pm (gusts to 24), and 14 mph at 10 pm (gusts to 20). The elite men's 10k was schedule for 9:18 pm.
A developing story that is going to end this Meet.
BTC and a few others wanted the Meet changed to Sunday. The Sound Running crew needed to check with the school for track availability on Sunday. Everyone was told there would be an answer by Noon today. It is now after 5pm and quite a few coaches are bailing on the meet because of not knowing. Not worth paying for Hotels and flights for a questionable weather day. And now it is getting too late to late. Sound Running has effed this one up and probably hurting their reputation.