OAC and Geordie Beamish fans, did you watch that 3000 in Lieven? 25.8 final 200 in 7:30 race.

Closing speed is basically capped, it was just that 7:30 wasn't enough to zap it out of Wale. He's not going to close proportionally faster in a 7:39 race. Will still be 25.xx up front so if it's not insanrly hot from the gun to take it out of Beamish he can still get a medal.

Wale didn’t win the race, guys. That was Lamecha Girma.

Come on man, it was Girma.

Exactly. Do we think Girma (not Wale) could've closed in 24 in a 7:39 race? No way. Now, if worlds is 7:30 pace, does Beamish still have the kick? Probably not.

I didn't have a chance to watch the race yet and my first mistake was not double checking information put out by rojo. Apologies, Girma not Wale.

Well how many Ethiopians run in the race? The answer is 2. While there are probably 7 Ethiopians who could throttle Beamish that becomes irrelevant. None of the Kenyans look fit, the Ugandans are sitting out, let’s assume Jakob passes or runs the 1500…so now it’s the international Bowerman runners (maybe), Mechaal, not-so-fit Katir and Beamish.

Fast times are important, winning is important, and looking great while doing both is also important. 

Congrats to both Jakob and Geordie for accomplishing those important objectives!!

USATF indoor entries are up and the deadline is passed. The only Bowerman (M or F) entered is Josh Thompson in the 1500. So small chance Thompson, possibly Bartelsmeyer as he has standard but won't be a factor, probably not Tuntivate as he has mentioned doing the 10,000 in two weeks, plus the Stafford sisters.

I'd say Beamish still has a good shot in a slower race, but could be harder if the Germa/Wale/Barega whoever ETH sends wind things up early.

The last 18 months leads me to believe we have to re-think what is considered a "slow" race in the 1500 and 3000. In a race with international talent, 3:35 and 7:35 are fairly run of the mill times now, we need to adjust our thinking for that. And with all these quick times, we need to figure out if what we're seeing is a relative improvement or an absolute improvement - is Fisher getting closer to Cheptegei, etc, or is everyone getting quicker? The outdoor season will help give a better idea of this

This is one of the most interesting, and understudied aspects of modern racing to me. +/-51 seconds seems to be the absolute maximum for a close, and if you can do that at the end of a race, you'll probably win.

For Bekele, wikipedia suggests 53 seconds was typically fast enough https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenenisa_Bekele, and 52 sufficed for a 3K championship in 2009

Lagat and El G were about 51 seconds or so in the final lap of the 2004 1500 IIRC

So it's kind of a mystery to me why athletes don't train to just be in 'good enough' position with 400 to go and then drill 51s/400 pace until they can do that no matter what. I mean obviously it's not that simple but it's curious that men's track races basically have a set of 'sufficient' conditions for victory.

Because of this exact situation. Unless you are going to do what Centro did in Rio where you keep it slow and close in 51, then you go to be in some pretty good shape where you wont be dropped before ever being able to use that speed. No point in running that 51 close and finishing in 8th place. That's why it is so difficult to be the "total" package. Mo was good at winning it in multiple different ways but of course he would prefer leaving it up to a kick

Rojo, we have no idea what point you're trying to make

Remember when Beamish was the only guy in the NCAA indoor mile who hadn't broken 4 minutes and he managed to win anyway. I wouldn't count the guy out.

Yeah meant more if Ahmed or Scott were to run, they would be threats. I did leave out Balew who would have the edge over Beamish in a fast race. Justyn Knight as well though no idea what he's up to.

Salazar was well aware of this fact that runners are capped in their last laps and that positioning is very important, and so he trained his runners to get the lead or 2nd before the bell and to be able to run a fast 1k and a fast last 400m. Centro, coached by Salazar and his dad, closed Rio's 3:50 1500m in 50.6. I get his last 200m in 25.8, so the first 200m of the bell lap must have been in 24.8! Everyone was full out, and you'd have thought that Makhloufi could get past him, but he was .10 back. I think that one of the top Spanish runners closed in sub 50 in a high 3:40s race in the late 1980s. Then, of course, there was Jim Ryun, who apparently closed a 3:38 1500m on dirt in 36.xx 300m with 50.xx for the last 400m, but we'll never know exactly until someone publishes the full last lap footage.