Official Lieven discussion thread: How many WRs will fall?

W mile probably.

M 1500 maybe.

It's hard to argue with your over/under!

Actually, let me say M 1500 probably.

I guess I would take the over.

Take away cheat shoes and none will fall.

Tsegay could still break the record without superspikes to be fair.

2

One thing disappointing about the East African runners is that they are not consistent.

Ingerbrigsten has almost a medical staff arround him.

Here we are with the paradoxal performances of:

S. Tefera
Y. Kejelcha

S. Barega (yes we can add this one)

Even Kiplimo had a lot of flaws in the last year.

I’m taking the under.

Jakob 3:30.44

Money for jam

Jakob's most underrated trait is his mental fortitude.

He races a lot and has almost never had a blow-up or even a sub-par race. I struggle to think of another runner who you just knew was going to do something great every time they stepped on the track (outside of Farah in championship races). 

is kejelcha still in America? thought i saw something about him switching to adidas, but not sure about team at this point. but he had been getting western training for a long time, with all the best medical, recovery, etc. we have to offer.

Ingebrigtsen will undoubtedly break the indoor record. It only takes 3:30 fitness outdoors to do it, and I dont think its too much to ask of him at this point in the year.

Kejelcha seems like he is done in the latest three years. Ethiopians have managing and organization issues.

Tefera is actually consistent, his peak performance is simply overrated as indoors generally is. There is nothing paradoxical about him. 

Barega and Kiplimo just have higher peaks than everyone. Kind of odd to count that against them, but you can certainly look at it from that negative perspective that theyre not consistently at that level. 

Kejelcha, I guess I'll give you that one. 

Which 3:30 runner has ever maintained 3:30 fitness from indoors to outdoors through championship season?

The fastest outdoor 1500s per month:
Jan: 3:34.97 Matthew Ramsden (PR: 3:34.08)

Feb: 3:32.16 Filbert Bayi (PR 3:32.16)

Mar: 3:32.55 William Chirchir (3:29.29)

Apr: 3:31.94 Zakaria Maazouzi (3:31.94)

Nobody's held 3:29 form from Feb - Sep.

I don’t think that’s exactly fair. Sure, he’s been somewhat inconsistent including laying an egg when it mattered most, at the Olympics, but let’s look at what he’s done in the past 36 months.

3/3/19 - 3:47.01i Mile World Record, fastest time indoors or out since 2007

5/18/19 - Wins Shanghai DL 5k

7/5/19 - Wins Lausanne DL 5k

7/17/19 - 3rd in Ethiopian WC trials 10k (26:49)

10/6/19 - 2nd in Doha WC 10k (26:49)

(Note: this is only the 2nd time in world history someone has broken 26:50 for a track 10k more than once in a single season, joining Bekele’s 2005 campaign)

10/27/19 - Wins Valencia half marathon in 59:05 PB

8/14/20 - Runs 3:32.69 1500

6/8/21 - 2nd in Ethiopian OT 10k between eventual gold medalist Barega and 4th place Aregawi, clocking 26:49 with a 53-54 last lap

7/1/21 - Runs 7:26.25 3k, fastest time outdoors since 2007

Pretty good running by most people’s standards, despite some disappointments. The two performances I’ve listed from 2021 show he should not yet be discounted from winning more global medals and running very fast times.

Could not disagree more with this.

Tefera: Runs same indoors as outdoors, which exaggerates how good he is. He is a 3:30 type guy lacking in finishing speed or tactical acumen. He'll perform fine in drag race scenarios in Europe, but he's a threat to get bounced in the rounds.

Kejelcha: Not every guy runs his best in every race...He performed at a really high level in 2019 and 2021. Silver to Cheptegei in 2019 was a great performance. Being anywhere near Barega last year at Ethiopian Trials also great. His huge neg split 3K was also spectacular. Bad Olympics race, but he's not the only guy who had an off day.

Barega: Not going to dignify this one? He goes for it in his races and doesn't hit a Home Run every time. But he performs his best at the Championships, and his off races are typically when he tries to run 7:22 or 12:40 and ends up with 7:27 and 12:50? Can live with that.

Kiplimo: He got a bit overrated based on some of his solo/2020 exploits. He beat a fatigued Jakob at 3K in a good time. He took down Barega when Barega blew up a tiny bit going for a 12:40. Great scalps, but context matters. Ultimately his best race might be the Half Marathon. His speed and finish are good, but Cheptegei and Barega have the edge when they're on. He can blast fast times on his own that's for sure, but that's different than beating these guys in championship 5Ks/10ks.

I’ll predict one WR, Ingebrigtsen in the 1500.

Ingebrigtsen runs 3:30.65i; Tefera hangs on until 250m to go and finishes 2nd in 3:32-33.

Tsegay clocks 4:14.21i to move to #2 all-time behind G. Dibaba (I didn’t realize Elle Purrier-St. Pierre sits at #2 all-time in the event currently...wild).

Kipsang runs 4:52.10i to pass Haile Gebrselassie into the #2 spot all-time.

Barega FTW in 7:26.98i leading 4 men under 7:30 (this is easily the event I’m most excited about, and most want to see a WR in).

Nakaayi outkicks Goule by hundredths as both go 1:59.3x.

Mariano Garcia runs 1:45.01 to lower his own WL and “upset” Giles.

Ejegayehu Taye clocks 8:23.54i to move to #3 all-time behind G. Dibaba and Tsegay (note that Ethiopia already has the top-5 performers ever in this event, and that number could swell today).

Should be a good one.