3:56 and 7:49 Won’t Make Nationals

You see the same trend in DII and DIII. Qualifying times and times in general are getting loads faster. Though, I guess the argument could be made a lot of kids who may have gone DI in the past see the DII and DIII are viable options too and more are opting for that.  

I think super spikes help but I also think these days college kids are not afraid to go for it. I'm very impressed with this generation of NCAA runners. Rarely do you see a tactical race these days. I remember in the early 2010s watching many many more sit and kick jogfests in the NCAA. 

I think 1-1.5 seconds per K. Some people respond more than others. There’re more fast races and fast tracks than ever before.

I was thinking of and might still make a thread to readjust what the new standards are as far as eye-popping performances e.g.

breaking 4 in HS —-> Breaking 3:58

Going under 3:37/3:55 in NCAA —> 3:35/3:52

Sub 7:50 in NCAA —-> Sub 7:45

Sub 13:25 in NCAA —> Sub 13:15

Sub 13:10 as Pro —-> Sub 13:03

Sub 27:20 as Pro —> Sub 27:05

Completely disagree. The guys in the early 2010's went for it. Lawi Lalang, Sam Chelanga, Kennedy Kithuka, the list goes on. Ryan Hill and Diego Estrada ran low 7:40's. Galen Rupp Set the AR in the 5,000m. They went for it then. They go for it now.

Beadlescomb doesn't wear super spikes.

I think there’s a few other factors at play too…

- Extra year of eligibility from covid: older athletes/more athletes = better times

- The average indoor track is better than ever

- Covid Training Boost: opportunities taken away from you, makes it all that much sweeter when you have a chance again.

Yeah, he's only in Dragonfly, new color in his 3:52... the GOAT of super spikes..

Here you go

If its 4 seconds a mile why are 1500 pro runners not faster? Jakob is actually 2 seconds slower than he was at age 17? Tim C soloed a 3:29 before the shoes, why hasnt he broke the WR? What about the slew of 3:30 guys every year, why havent they challenged the WR? I think 1 second a mile makes sense for shorter distances, maybe slightly more for longer races where it can save the legs more.

This is assuming Jakob ran to his full potential last year and I don't think that he did.

Tim C was injured most of last year. He still ran 3:28 on a bum hamstring.

The focus last year was the Olympics. They are taking a shot at the WR this year and I think they'll get it, which means 3:25. That would line-up with the 3-4 seconds per mile.

Maybe the very top guys sent it in the early 2010s too, but now everybody's game to run full tilt. For instance, Brian Fay (never heard of the guy before) from UW ran 13:24 at UW last night. Last season his best results were an 8:29 steeple and 7:53 3k. 

Then in the 3k there were like 8 guys under 7:50, most of whom I would not have expected to run that quick. These guys aren't scared of a hot pace.

And they weren't afraid of a hot pace before. Remember when all of those guys were running in the mid to low 7:50's? Drop 6-8 seconds and you're in the 7:40's, which is exactly my point.

Same for the 5,000m. 13:24 becomes 13:33-36. Not unusual for the Husky Classic. A handful of guys used to run sub-13:40 there.

4 seconds per mile is overstating it. No way 3:49.9 Johnny Gregorek could run 3:45.9 in any footwear. Or Izaik Yorks was a 3:49 guy in disguise. Just nah it’s 1.5-2 seconds.

4 seconds a mile is an absurd adjustment.

Tracks are better, Coaching, up and down is way deeper and better. The shoes help, but marginally, I have run this by two expert Coaches , all would know. The idea really is, all these fast races are always set up, even the ones that do not make the headlines. BU is an absolute speedway, look at two HS girls breaking a really solid former Nat HS Record, not by tenths but by a second+. If you think Hocker andTeare, were already better than Beadlescomb? He didn't even wear the "Super shoes", right? That doesn't even look out of line to me.

Guys get optimal conditions every indoor effort these days, fast guys, solid fast pacing, Super fast tracks, and better shots to run fast. I think the shoes help, but no way as much as folks think,

Or Nuguse & Kessler were secretly 3:30 dudes because they wore Adidas.

Morgan B. Is better than Teare & Hocker.

The issue is that there are significant amount of people running equally as fast not using the spikes.

Ok, well I guess I disagree that the spikes account for 6-8s in the 3k and 12s in the 5k. But I'm not going to argue about that.

This logic is absurd. So you would expect 10-12 guys challenge the WR this year?? Thats how many guys would run 3:30 or under every year and with your 4 second “adjustment” they would be right with El G. I dont think so. If thats the case, ill gladly eat my words but highly unlikely. The fast NCAA times are a combo of spikes + extra eligibility from covid (Beadlescomb etc..) and guys chasing faster races at BU/UW etc. If the qualifying time is 3:56 thats what they are gonna shoot for, not 3:58.

It’s the shoes. Anybody saying otherwise can’t accept their own accomplishments are aided by the largest step change in track tech since the original victory.

no, the coaches all suddenly get smarter

no, the tracks aren’t better. BU, Arkansas, the Armory, all existed a decade ago.

it’s the shoes.

Answer my question or shut up. I acknowledged that the shoes are better, but I disagree that its 4 seconds a mile. If that were the case, the 1500 WR should be under threat by a dozen guys. If thats not the case, its clearly not a 4 second adjustment.