Who will have the better career: Josh Kerr or Cole Hocker?

The safe bet is Josh Kerr as he has already has an Olympic bronze medal. Cole has been ahead of him at every checkpoint though. So if he progresses he theoretically has higher upside. But Josh last year had a big breakthrough, and there’re no guarantees for Cole.

The current 1500 landscape works for Kerr as he clearly can run hard from the gun and he seems to struggle tactically in slower races. In another era you’d be concerned about him translating 3:29 ability into medals but in this one there’re no worries.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

The safe bet is Josh Kerr as he has already has an Olympic bronze medal. Cole has been ahead of him at every checkpoint though. So if he progresses he theoretically has higher upside. But Josh last year had a big breakthrough, and there’re no guarantees for Cole.

The current 1500 landscape works for Kerr as he clearly can run hard from the gun and he seems to struggle tactically in slower races. In another era you’d be concerned about him translating 3:29 ability into medals but in this one there’re no worries.

As usual THOUGHTSLEADER’s post is very well reasoned, except I take a small issue with the last sentence since I think a 3:29 has always put one firmly in medal contention.

Smart money leans slightly to Kerr, but I personally believe Hocker will outdo him. Even if Hocker “only” runs 3:29.9, I think he’ll kick to a global medal some day and run a sub-13 5k eventually—and (unfairly I admit) I suspect that Kerr has already had his career highlight.

the one who collects more medals, better times and more victories over there other.

wejo wrote:

This came up on this week's podcast. Who will have the better career when it's all done Josh Kerr or Cole Hocker?

Kerr's already got the Olympic medal and has run 3:29, something Jon pointed out Cole may never due. Robert was a bit more confident Cole will run under 3:29 and he's got the 5000 as well.

Video segment here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OP17v1DoZzY

Full pod here:

https://podcast.letsrun.com/episode/4bd5f98e/millrose-games-delivered-athing-mu-drops-out-alberto-salazar-banned-for-alleged-sexual-assault

Hocker is faster at each stage and won his NCAA titles much sooner than Kerr did. (Kerr won his three at the end of his 4 years at New Mexico....Hocker did his three titles in essentially his first indoor and first outdoor seasons @ Oregon)

4 years younger, Hocker is only 1.x seconds off of Kerr's 1500 PB which they both attained in the same race (Tokyo finals)

They both have similar speed and kicking ability, Hocker might have better strength (potential), but Kerr might be better through their careers simply because they share the exact same stage at the same moment and Kerr has a few years head start over Hocker.

DouchebagsAnonymous wrote:Hocker is only 1.x seconds off of Kerr's 1500 PB which they both attained in the same race (Tokyo finals)

*2.35 seconds

18th vs. 85th on the all-time lists.

remove the star spangled lenses you view everything through and there’s a fairly obvious answer.

Up until Millrose, I was sure the answer was Hocker, but now I’m not so sure Hocker will even outdo Teare, let alone Kerr. I realize that one race means nothing, but it was a wake-up call that Hocker is not going to simply get better and better and better with no plateaus or struggles. Once you run 3:31 it’s a grind to get faster and Hocker is not going to keep running prs every time out (yes, I realize he ran a pr at Millrose, but you get what I’m saying). Of course everybody knows this, but I had fallen into the delusion that Hocker was somehow going to be immune to these constraints. He’s not.

Wise Old Man wrote:

Up until Millrose, I was sure the answer was Hocker, but now I’m not so sure Hocker will even outdo Teare, let alone Kerr. I realize that one race means nothing, but it was a wake-up call that Hocker is not going to simply get better and better and better with no plateaus or struggles. Once you run 3:31 it’s a grind to get faster and Hocker is not going to keep running prs every time out (yes, I realize he ran a pr at Millrose, but you get what I’m saying). Of course everybody knows this, but I had fallen into the delusion that Hocker was somehow going to be immune to these constraints. He’s not.

Beware reading too much into a meaningless indoor race with limited preparation. Hocker’s outdoor season opened with a bigger dud getting beat by Nuguse and Teare at Oregon Twilight. He came to Millrose with one track session. Kerr also got beat handily by Hoare and I find it equally unimportant. Both guys will be ready when it matters.

JWH to be fair I meant not that he wouldn’t be a medal contender but he might fall into the Silas Kipagat, Augustine Choge group of guys who run really fast but you are wary of in the slower, crowded race.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

The safe bet is Josh Kerr as he has already has an Olympic bronze medal. Cole has been ahead of him at every checkpoint though. So if he progresses he theoretically has higher upside. But Josh last year had a big breakthrough, and there’re no guarantees for Cole.

The current 1500 landscape works for Kerr as he clearly can run hard from the gun and he seems to struggle tactically in slower races. In another era you’d be concerned about him translating 3:29 ability into medals but in this one there’re no worries.

There's no era in which someone running 3:29 would be worried about not getting a medal.

Both Kerr and Hocker will get faster, but that means Kerr will be running 3:28 while Hocker will be running 3:30. Kerr will be a multiple world medalist. I'll say 4 medals. Hocker will get one.

Kerr. No one can take away a rightfully earned Olympic medal. A 6th place finish in the Olympics as a top international result for Hocker is insignificant in the grand scheme of things internationally. Sure, Hocker certainly has potential though since he's so young. But we've also seen people his age have success early and never replicate that again. Time will tell.

Well, I assume his prep is the same as Teare and I figured with what I thought was an emerging talent gap between him and his training partner he would beat Teare easily. So either bad news for Hocker or good news for Teare. I’m not giving up on Hocker mind you. He may be the best of this group easily, just not as sure as I was in the late fall. Are we really sure Hocker is better than Teare? Teare ran HS in the same league as my daughters, so I’ve seen his amazing talent up close.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

JWH to be fair I meant not that he wouldn’t be a medal contender but he might fall into the Silas Kipagat, Augustine Choge group of guys who run really fast but you are wary of in the slower, crowded race.

Sure, but even one of your examples won a World Championship 1500 silver, and the other placed as high as 5th. If you’re a 3:29 guy you’re in medal contention.

I also think too many armchair analysts like myself are convinced that every championship 1500 for the foreseeable future is going to be a time trial. Ingebrigtsen could get popped and Cheruiyot injured, or vice versa, and McSweyn could get outkicked in the semis like 2019, or simply lose form, and then we’re likely back to 3:34 races with a monster last lap. The future is never assured in athletics and things can get shaken up in the blink of an eye.

Higher knowledge wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

The safe bet is Josh Kerr as he has already has an Olympic bronze medal. Cole has been ahead of him at every checkpoint though. So if he progresses he theoretically has higher upside. But Josh last year had a big breakthrough, and there’re no guarantees for Cole.

The current 1500 landscape works for Kerr as he clearly can run hard from the gun and he seems to struggle tactically in slower races. In another era you’d be concerned about him translating 3:29 ability into medals but in this one there’re no worries.

There's no era in which someone running 3:29 would be worried about not getting a medal.

Tell that to Abel Kipsang, Stewart McSweyn, etc.

Hocker. Kids got real heart. Doesn't blame failures on anyone.

Kerr could retire today and likely have a better career than Hocker will. Olympic medal trumps all over achievements in my eyes and there are no guarantees that Hocker will A). Run faster than he has and B). Get it right on the day to medal at the Olympics. Plenty of 3:31 guys have never medaled, no shame.

Wise Old Man wrote:

Up until Millrose, I was sure the answer was Hocker, but now I’m not so sure Hocker will even outdo Teare, let alone Kerr. I realize that one race means nothing, but it was a wake-up call that Hocker is not going to simply get better and better and better with no plateaus or struggles. Once you run 3:31 it’s a grind to get faster and Hocker is not going to keep running prs every time out (yes, I realize he ran a pr at Millrose, but you get what I’m saying). Of course everybody knows this, but I had fallen into the delusion that Hocker was somehow going to be immune to these constraints. He’s not.

Well, Hocker had an approximately 7 second PR for 3000 meters at Millrose. It was, as I recall, his first race in months and reportedly followed only one track session.

Even though Hocker has a lot of upside, Kerr was already in 3:27 shape in Tokyo and almost nudged one of the GOATs in Cheruiyot. So I’d say Kerr because it will take a lot for even a crazy talent like Hocker to reach Kerr’s 2021, let alone surpass it

Well, last we saw Teare he was staggering and finished like 246th in xc. Teare and Hocker have been training together and posting their silly videos, so they have put in the same work, I assume, and there was Teare out kicking Hocker. I don’t know about you, but I was very surprised. What I’m not sure about is if I was under estimating Teare or over estimating Hocker. After Tokyo I really did not think Hocker would be challenged by this “NCAA crew” at this distance, you know Mantz, Kiptoo, and I would have included Teare. Yes, my opinion might change again right after Hocker and Teare run in Chicago and go for the AR. For the moment Kerr is comfortably ahead of Hocker.

agree