Both 1500 finals in 2016 Rio Olympics were essentially 700 warmup + 800 race.
Do you think 2012 Rudisha and 2021 Mu could have won them?
Both 1500 finals in 2016 Rio Olympics were essentially 700 warmup + 800 race.
Do you think 2012 Rudisha and 2021 Mu could have won them?
1500 is the new 800 wrote:
Both 1500 finals in 2016 Rio Olympics were essentially 700 warmup + 800 race.
Do you think 2012 Rudisha and 2021 Mu could have won them?
no
1500 is the new 800 wrote:
Both 1500 finals in 2016 Rio Olympics were essentially 700 warmup + 800 race.
Do you think 2012 Rudisha and 2021 Mu could have won them?
Yes, for Rudisha, but he'd have to be disguised in order for the rest to actually go along at 2:50 through 1100 with him in the race.
...Regardless, a 50 second final 400 (Centro) almost matches Rudisha's final 400 of his WR 800 so it wouldn't exactly be easy against the strength guys. ....Centro's bell 400 was incredible, despite the many naysayers
Of course. Mu would have crushed the competition had they gone easy for 700.
They got through 1100 in 2:59 (warm up) with the last lap being 51 sec. Easy for Rudisha.
And women went through 700 in 2:12 finishing up 800 in 1:57.3.
How could 2021 Mu and 2012 Rudisha run a race that took place in 2016?
i think the idea of 800 runners, especially 400/800 runners being deadly kickers in the 1500/mile is fantasy. they're usually not even good kickers in the 800.
with 400 to go, Rudisha is not thinking "wow, that was so easy, i can drop a 49 because i have the best top speed" , he's actually thinking - "i've been racing for 3 minutes already, what do you mean i'm not done yet?"
if it wasn't obvious don't think a 2:59 1100m is hard for Rudisha, but what i mean to get across is that milers will run much more efficient the longer the time duration of the race.
centro actually has more gas in the tank at that point of the race and that's much more important than top speed in a kick
1500 is the new 800 wrote:
Both 1500 finals in 2016 Rio Olympics were essentially 700 warmup + 800 race.
Do you think 2012 Rudisha and 2021 Mu could have won them?
It's a good question but keep in mind (correct me if I'm wrong) but Centro went 1:04.2 in the last 500. If anyone could have done that I guess it would be Rudisha in that year but it would not be as easy as it sounds. i guess we will never know.
At the very least Mu needed the same 4:08 final time for 1500. Can she do that? We'll see soon!
Going by your logic, Matt Centrowitz should have finished in about 5th place, 2016 Olympics 1500m F. There were 1:42.xx & 1:43.xx guys who didn't even medal. Going by your logic Ivo van Damme and Rick Wohlhuter should have earned gold & silver, 1976 Olympics 1500mF. Gals & guys with the fastest 400m speed do not always win 1500m races. Often gals & guys with the fastest 400m speed don't win 1500m races.
No, because the 1500 is a much more tactical race than the 800. Doubly so when the pace is as slow as it was in Rio. Centro defeated more physically talented, faster runners like Kiprop and Mahkloufi because he was superior tactically while they repeatedly got into bad position and could not make it up on the last lap. 800 runners don't have much to think about tactically except how fast they go on the first lap. They never have to position themselves for 2 3/4 laps until the last lap kick. If experienced 1500 runners like Kiprop and Mahkloufi could not position themselves well, it would have been even worse for Rudisha. The 800 and 1500 are very different races. The 800 is basically a long sprint. There's very little tactics. There are upsets for sure, but most of the time the best athlete wins. There's nothing in the 800 the equivalent of Centro winning in Rio.
snowdays wrote:
i think the idea of 800 runners, especially 400/800 runners being deadly kickers in the 1500/mile is fantasy. they're usually not even good kickers in the 800.
with 400 to go, Rudisha is not thinking "wow, that was so easy, i can drop a 49 because i have the best top speed" , he's actually thinking - "i've been racing for 3 minutes already, what do you mean i'm not done yet?"
Exactly.
We have the parallel of the 2017 London women's 1500m final that also closed with sub 2 800m after a slow start. The best 800m runner in the field with the additional advantage of being biologically male, came 3rd and a hardly distinguished 800m runner, Jenny Simpson, came 2nd. The probably best female 800m runner in that London final (although Kipyegon ran 1:57 later) was Hassan with 1:56.8 in the 2017 season who came 5th.
There is probably some pace that is so slow that the faster 800/400 runner gets an advantage for a fast last lap. But even tactical finales are rarely slow enough for this and usually the ones better used to a 3-5 min. effort simply have more left in the tank than the ones used to a less than 2 min. effort.
I often chuckle to myself knowing that even I could of front run the first 700m of that race and the fact that Bekele ran many 700m splits faster than this in the thon. Ok after running for 700m(even if slow for them guys). The question is would running 700m in about 2 minutes flat really take 9 seconds off Rudisha's 800 ability? If he ran under 1:49 for the final 800m he would of won, and he would have a flying start in order to run under 1:49. Even if his endurance is weak compared to his speed it is hard to imagine that he would not be able to run a 1:48/49 if he was literally in 1:40 shape
The key element here is that Rudisha had no chance of making it through the rounds, so there would also be no Rudisha in the Final.
Even if hypothetically being able to participate in the final, he wouldn't have won, since not even 1:42 - 1:43 runners Makhloufi, Souleiman and Kiprop were able to do it.
1:44 PB Centrowitz and 1:45 PB Willis medalled, so we see, that 800m ability does not directly correlate with kicking speed.
Rio Final winning formula would look like this:
F A T I G U E
____________________ = Position at the finish line
Position at the bell
The problem with speculating what someone who was neither in a race nor even ran the distance are too many unknowns. Admittedly, the Rio men's final was maybe the most extreme case of a slow tactical race ever. So I don't know what could have happened.
But I think in general the lesson from tactical races is that there is no hard and fast rule that the fastest person in the shorter distance will be more likely to win. Experience seems to show that it is often not the case, neither in 1500 nor in longer distances.
There are at least three other factors: Kicking at the end of a race is simply a different ability from being fast at a shorter race, especially such a special distance as 800m that is usually fastest at the beginning. Then the specific endurance, including the mental factor mentioned above (why am I still running after 3 min.). And finally the actual tactics, positioning and a bit of luck. That's probably why Simpson beat Hassan and Muir in that 2017 final.
If you run the stats on that Rio final, the best predictor of finishing place is 1500 PR. If you try to predict finishing place with 800 PR, you don't get a significant correlation. And if you do a stepwise regression, adding 800 PR to 1500 PR doesn't improve the prediction. In other words, even in a very slow race like Rio, it's still the best milers who place highest, not the best 800 runners.
Incredibly, Centro’s last lap of 50.62 is 1:41.24 pace, barely off 800 WR pace and I’d assume faster than any second lap in a <1:41.50 race. With his positioning at the bell and more importantly his astounding last lap, I don’t think anyone in their 2016 fitness could have beaten him even if right off his shoulder (assuming others in the race were positioned as they were at bell… it would’ve been close with Makh if he was positioned better at bell but that’s racing and he wasn’t, while Centro executed perfectly)
Both very good points. I recall that positioning was also an issue in the 2018 world indoors where Genzebe Dibaba won both 1500 and 3000m. I think that at least in the latter Hassan finished faster but was positioned poorly so she could not reach Dibaba.
Or Lewandowski vs. Jakob Ingebrigsten in some indoor race, probably 2019 European indoors.