Millrose Men's 3000

Nico actually looks really good right now but I am leaning towards Hunter or Grijalva

i think hocker (if hes in shape) and beamish (ran a fast 5k a month or two ago and is more of a miler anyway) would be the favorites. then teare, nico and maybe hunter (even tho i question how his success recently on the roads will transfer over to the track). grijalva seems to be slower than nico over short distances right now and mantz is obviously on a good run, but 3k has never been his specialty. wouldnt be too shocked if one of them took it tho.

The four with the most elite results are Beamish, Hocker, Teare, and Kiptoo. All 4 have performances in the last 12 months over 1200 points as calculated by World Athletics, no one else has a performance at that level. Hocker and Teare haven't done anything to show the general public they are in elite shape since last summer. Beamish and Kiptoo both went under 13:15 last month in Boston. Odds are, it is one of these four that wins, anyone winning would be an upset. All 4 have shown they are comfortable going for a win in a deep field. I think Teare is the least likely to win of these 4 just based on his inability to put together a top performance in the bigger meets this fall. He needs to show he's race sharp to be favored for a win here.

Young and Grijalva had a strong demonstration of fitness last week at altitude, they should be very competitive in the race but neither has shown the ability to win in a deep field like this. Beadlescomb dropped a mile in the mid-3:50s last weekend too so no reason to think he won't be right with these two guys based on his cross country results as well.

It seems a bit short of a race for Mantz or Hicks to win with as deep a field as this, but their performances will be a good judge of their progress and potential.

Hunter hasn't done anything in a long time to suggest he should be considered a favorite, mixing it up with the leaders and finishing strong would be a good performance for him to build off of.

Parsons, Gay, West, and Hernandez would all be big surprises.

No Ferlic? Is he hurt or something? Thought him, Kessler, and Willis were all running Millrose.

1. Beamish could run as fast as 7:38 if someone paces.

2.-4. Teare, Hocker and Mantz could run around 7:45.

5.-9. Young, Grijalva, Gay, Parsons and Hunter could crack 7:50.

bigredbus wrote:

No Ferlic? Is he hurt or something? Thought him, Kessler, and Willis were all running Millrose.

Yeah, I was as surprised as you are. Dude has been in great shape lately and could go for a snappy sub-7:45.

They all ran together at Michigan on Saturday.

Master of LolIy wrote:

1. Beamish could run as fast as 7:38 if someone paces.

2.-4. Teare, Hocker and Mantz could run around 7:45.

5.-9. Young, Grijalva, Gay, Parsons and Hunter could crack 7:50.

Forgot Kiptoo. He could challenge Beamish for ca. 7:40. Therefore;

1. Beamish - 7:38

2. Kiptoo - 7:40

3.-5. Teare, Hocker and Mantz - 7:45.

6.-10. Young, Grijalva, Gay, Parsons and Hunter - 7:50

Kiptoo ran 4:01 last week on 300 track. No way he can put 2x4:05 1600s together.

Master of LolIy wrote:

5.-9. Young, Grijalva, Gay, Parsons and Hunter could crack 7:50.

7:50 is the standard for world indoors, so this might be the goal of some with little chances for winning or good placement.

NJ NY wrote:

Kiptoo ran 4:01 last week on 300 track. No way he can put 2x4:05 1600s together.

Correct. Adam Fogg has the race on his YouTube channel if you were interested.

It’s a very fast track as well.

NJ NY wrote:

Kiptoo ran 4:01 last week on 300 track. No way he can put 2x4:05 1600s together.

He also ran 13:14 5000m on a 200m track 7 weeks ago. That's worth ca. 7:40 in 3000m. So either that mile race was easy, or he has lost his shape.

His mile is worth 8:00 and his 5k is worth 7:40. So 7:50 seems pretty likely.

but but wrote:

His mile is worth 8:00 and his 5k is worth 7:40. So 7:50 seems pretty likely.

Let's calculate:

4:01 mile = 1117 IAAF points

13:14 5000m = 1207 IAAF points

(1117 + 1207) : 2= 1162 IAAF points = 7:46.

Yeah, I saw the VNTC YouTube race video and they mentioned that they were tuning up for Millrose. Was looking forward to seeing what he could do for a 3k considering his 3:35 last summer. I can't imagine a scenario where Ferlic didn't get the invite considering lower tier guys such as Parsons, West, Beadlescomb, Mantz, and Kiptoo are on the start list. He'd likely be the 3-5th fastest in the field.

I could see that. 7:40 is way too fast for a 4:01 miler.

Who wins? wrote:

The field is loaded

Drew Hunter

Wesley Kiptoo

Luis Grijalva

Nico Young

James West

Morgan Beadlescomb

Cooper Teare

Geordie Beamish

Sam Parsons

John Gay

Jeremy Hernandez

Charles Hicks

Cole Hocker

Conner Mantz

This looks like an NCAA all-star final over the last few years, and Hocker is simply too fast over the last 400 to lose to any of these guys at a pace any of them are capable of running now (7:37 or slower). Hocker wins with his kick at just under 7:40 and Beamish is 2nd and then the rest.

They are in the mile you dorks. This thread is about the 3k...

Wise Old Man wrote:

Who wins? wrote:

The field is loaded

Drew Hunter

Wesley Kiptoo

Luis Grijalva

Nico Young

James West

Morgan Beadlescomb

Cooper Teare

Geordie Beamish

Sam Parsons

John Gay

Jeremy Hernandez

Charles Hicks

Cole Hocker

Conner Mantz

This looks like an NCAA all-star final over the last few years, and Hocker is simply too fast over the last 400 to lose to any of these guys at a pace any of them are capable of running now (7:37 or slower). Hocker wins with his kick at just under 7:40 and Beamish is 2nd and then the rest.

I agree, I think Hocker takes it unless he's really out of shape. None of these guys can run low 7:30, which is what it would take to run the legs off of Hocker. Beamish also has a sneaky kick, so I could see him in second and maybe challenging for first.