Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
Tim can break 3:27 if healthy but Jakob cannot.
I think Cheruiyot was in 3:26 shape in 2020 during his Monaco run. He ran like a 52 opening lap and held on to win in 3:28. I don't think he was in that shape in 2021, but I can see him getting back there this year if all goes well for him.
As for Jakob, I'm 50/50 on it. He's run 3:28 two years in a row now, and his 3:28 in the Olympics was surely a better effort than his 3:28 in Monaco, but I can see him just as easily running 3:27 this year as 3:26. Of course, if he runs 3:30 or faster in his season opener in a few weeks, I'll probably be leaning towards 3:26.
RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
If they are both 100% healthy, I'd be surprised if the WR didn't go down this season. Tim is going to be eager to avenge his Olympic loss in a big way. No race will be ever tactical with those guys in the same race. They can push each other to something really special.
TheSummerSoldier wrote:
RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
If they are both 100% healthy, I'd be surprised if the WR didn't go down this season. Tim is going to be eager to avenge his Olympic loss in a big way. No race will be ever tactical with those guys in the same race. They can push each other to something really special.
Oh it will be tactical but of course tactical does not mean slow.
I doubt it. Finding another 2 seconds at their level is ridiculously hard. Has anyone ran sub-3:28 without any pretty credible doping allegations floating around them? Long-term, I think Ingebrigtsen could do it as he's only 21 and has already run 3:28 and, according to his dad, he still hasn't worked on his speed. I don't think we'll see him or Cheruiyot PR this year, the WC is the main goal and Monaco comes soon afterwards which is not ideal
I can't see Cheruiyot breaking the WR. JI seems to be capable. Still very difficult for sure, but I really wouldn't be too surprised if he will run sub 3:25 within the next 3 years. Look what Warholm has done...
High hopes wrote:
I doubt it. Finding another 2 seconds at their level is ridiculously hard. Has anyone ran sub-3:28 without any pretty credible doping allegations floating around them?
Lagat. There are noncredible doping allegations though.
Peach Pit wrote:
I think Cheruiyot was in 3:26 shape in 2020 during his Monaco run. He ran like a 52 opening lap and held on to win in 3:28. I don't think he was in that shape in 2021, but I can see him getting back there this year if all goes well for him.
As for Jakob, I'm 50/50 on it. He's run 3:28 two years in a row now, and his 3:28 in the Olympics was surely a better effort than his 3:28 in Monaco, but I can see him just as easily running 3:27 this year as 3:26. Of course, if he runs 3:30 or faster in his season opener in a few weeks, I'll probably be leaning towards 3:26.
+1 Tim demonstrated 3:26 potential in that ridiculous 52 opening and Jakob hasn't slowed down just yet. Abel Kipsang looks fast as well, and if one were to dream it would be very fun to see a fit Kiprop tear the circuit up again. Manangoi and him probably will have a hard time getting back from their troubles.
High hopes wrote:
I doubt it. Finding another 2 seconds at their level is ridiculously hard.
+1
High hopes wrote:
Has anyone ran sub-3:28 without any pretty credible doping allegations floating around them?
Kiplagat?
Having said that, what are the odds that the two dominant athletes in a sport with over 40% admitted dopers are clean?
Plus:
Jakob: likely doping training partner + brother
Tim: banned training partner
High hopes wrote:
I don't think we'll see him or Cheruiyot PR this year, the WC is the main goal and Monaco comes soon afterwards which is not ideal
Both could PR, and Jakob has the higher chances, imo.
it is difficult to believe in kiprop having a return to form when he was already on the way down when he got popped
Call me when Tim or Jakob can hit 1200m in 2:46 or faster. Otherwise, they're likely finishing in 3:27-high.
RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
No because They aren't on the same level as Lagat or El G.. or even Kiprop to me. Theres only one more tier above them in terms of milers
Can they dope as hard as El G?
Can? Yes. Will? No. In a perfect race, they both can run 3:26 but unlikely to have a perfect race.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Can they dope as hard as El G?
Highly unlikely, but they have better shoes, and Monaco. The WR is from Rome.
runner69 wrote:
High hopes wrote:
I doubt it. Finding another 2 seconds at their level is ridiculously hard. Has anyone ran sub-3:28 without any pretty credible doping allegations floating around them?
Lagat. There are noncredible doping allegations though.
Just because he's American lol.
There are literally no evidence that El guerrouj doped other than him being so good
justnotrue wrote:
runner69 wrote:
Lagat. There are noncredible doping allegations though.
Just because he's American lol.
There are literally no evidence that El guerrouj doped other than him being so good
Not just because he's American - his 3:26.xx was as a Kenyan. I agree with you that there's no evidence that ElG doped either.
Morocco’s training groups were all pretty questionable. I would put money on El G doping. But who knows about anyone. I would like to think Lagat is clean, but watching some of his races as a young man at WSU it’s hard not to wonder how that guy ever got to be the 3:26/7:29/12:53, many time medalist and world champion that he became. I would be interested to hear what Lagat credits for his improvement. Working on form? Did he have injuries when younger? Did his training change?
birdbeard wrote:
I would like to think Lagat is clean, but watching some of his races as a young man at WSU it’s hard not to wonder how that guy ever got to be the 3:26/7:29/12:53, many time medalist and world champion that he became. I would be interested to hear what Lagat credits for his improvement. Working on form? Did he have injuries when younger? Did his training change?
Most talented runner ever (and perhaps the prettiest form), never ran high mileage as a young man and saw consistent improvement and a long career as a result.