I've been saying it for a couple of years, we're about to have a massive boost in marathon talent. In the past couple of years the number of 62 flat and now sub 61 half marathoners is huge, yet a ton of these guys haven't even run a marathon yet. Many of these guys were in the NCAA still in the past several years, continuing to run track 10,000m races the first few years after college and started getting into the road scene up to half marathon. One of them I thought would be good is Frank Lara who ran 61 half a couple years ago, recently was right around 61 flat and finally ran his marathon in 2:11, on a different day in a different race maybe he'll be sub 2:10 since the pacing was weird. They were on sub 2:08 pace through 10k and still 2:08 pace through 15k but slowed a lot as they turned into the wind and no one wanted to lead after half marathon.
Some guys who have yet to run their marathon is Kirubel Erassa now a 60:44 guy. Biya Simbassa ran 61:03 or so, he could do a big marathon. Conner Mantz could reasonably debut sub 2:10. And a handful of other 61 half marathoners who haven't run a marathon yet and a few more who have but not in the best of conditions. I think we'll see several new sub 2:10's before the 2024 olympic trials, and probably a couple 2:08's, maybe even a 2:07. And don't say it's the shoes, we weren't seeing these times in 2018/2019/2020 Olympic Trials when the shoes were already out. In those few years we got Jared Ward and Fauble running 2:09 at Boston, Rupp running a 2:06 in Czech Republic, and Korir running 2:08 in Amsterdam or wherever it was, and a bunch of 2:11 type times at Chicago. I think in these next two years we're going to see even more than those few good performances.