Pro football stats guys- when you need a touchdown on final drive and no timeout why not throw a bunch of hail Mary’s?

wejo wrote:

With 30 seconds left cowboys could have thrown 3-4 hail mary’s . To me that seems a better chance of winning than maybe getting to the 25 and taking one shot. Any stats back this up? what are the odds of a 50’yard Hail Mary? 

I understand your thought process, but statistics would probably show that odds against a Hail Mary are overwhelming. At best/worst there’s a 50% chance of interception.

This is a running forum, please stay on topic. Thank you.

Yusef Scumm. wrote:

wejo wrote:

With 30 seconds left cowboys could have thrown 3-4 hail mary’s . To me that seems a better chance of winning than maybe getting to the 25 and taking one shot. Any stats back this up? what are the odds of a 50’yard Hail Mary? 

I understand your thought process, but statistics would probably show that odds against a Hail Mary are overwhelming. At best/worst there’s a 50% chance of interception.

Well we know there is a decent chance of an incomplete pass so there is not likely a 50% chance of a pick. Probably roughly 60% chance of incompletion and then maybe 30% chance of a pick.

Yusef Scumm. wrote:

wejo wrote:

With 30 seconds left cowboys could have thrown 3-4 hail mary’s . To me that seems a better chance of winning than maybe getting to the 25 and taking one shot. Any stats back this up? what are the odds of a 50’yard Hail Mary? 

I understand your thought process, but statistics would probably show that odds against a Hail Mary are overwhelming. At best/worst there’s a 50% chance of interception.

That is right, very low odds for completion on a hail mary (hence the name), much higher odds for interception and zero chance they will call PI. With a 25 yard throw you have some chance of fitting it into a tight window or get a PI call.

Pescott should have given the ball to the ref not his center. He might have gotten his spike in to stop the clock.

Running at the moment with no timeouts was a brainless call. The 49ers were doing everything not to win that game at the end.

But Prescott showed everyone he is not Tom Brady, he choked.

Just found that 9.7% were successful in one large sample.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27951311/the-evolution-hail-mary-perfect-throw-how-defend-it

Hail Mary Passes in NCAA and NFL are likely to be completed at a 9% rate give or take. They appear to be 2X as likely to be intercepted as successful. A pass from inside the 30 has any where from 15 - 35% chance of being completed depending on: 1) the distance the ball is in the air, 2) separation of the receiver, 3) where the passer is when the ball is thrown.

One source:

https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09/10/hail-marys-just-how-improbable-are-they/

Gunndar wrote:

Just found that 9.7% were successful in one large sample.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27951311/the-evolution-hail-mary-perfect-throw-how-defend-it

That seems more successful than whatever the cowboys just did.

wejo wrote:

With 30 seconds left cowboys could have thrown 3-4 hail mary’s . To me that seems a better chance of winning than maybe getting to the 25 and taking one shot. Any stats back this up? what are the odds of a 50’yard Hail Mary? 

If you throw 100 Hail Marys you’ll convert maybe 10 at most. Then at least 50 will be intercepted. The other 40 will fall harmlessly to the ground. The defense can easily defend against a Hail Mary. The defense cannot as easily defend against a 25 yard pass.

They played it perfectly until the last play. They wanted to get around the 30-35 yard line with enough time for 2 shots at the end zone. They were on track until that last play. The 9ers were playing the sideline but they could have gotten another 5-10 yards very quickly.

Going back to the play after the fake punt. wtf was that?

ReallybroReally wrote:

Yusef Scumm. wrote:

I understand your thought process, but statistics would probably show that odds against a Hail Mary are overwhelming. At best/worst there’s a 50% chance of interception.

That is right, very low odds for completion on a hail mary (hence the name), much higher odds for interception and zero chance they will call PI. With a 25 yard throw you have some chance of fitting it into a tight window or get a PI call.

Yep.

This is the most exciting Hail Mary I have ever seen happen live (on TV, but I watched it live):

whatthewhat wrote:

Drunk Letsrun wrote:

Because you never need an apostrophe to pluralize. Ever.

The thing is, wejo skipped that lesson from kindergarten through college.

But of course neither of you paid attention in school either as there are occasions where one would use an apostrophe when one pluralizes.

One example is when pluralizing lower case letters. Example: You two clowns should have minded your p’s and q’s.

Why didnt the guy who got second place try running in front of the guy that won?

Gunndar wrote:

whatthewhat wrote:

The thing is, wejo skipped that lesson from kindergarten through college.

But of course neither of you paid attention in school either as there are occasions where one would use an apostrophe when one pluralizes.

One example is when pluralizing lower case letters. Example: You two clowns should have minded your p’s and q’s.

Last time I saw such a complete and utter takedown on LRC it was 2019 and someone got caught riding a bike. Bravo.

I stopped watching NFL much a long time ago, does OOB no longer stop the clock?

If it does, and you've got 4 passes, and the dense is covering the deep ball, throw 20 yarders, advance 5 yards OOB, repeat, then you're probably in or near the red zone and have two good shots at the end zone.

You could get maybe 75% chance of completing the first two, that's slightly better than 50% chance of getting in range for the two do-or-die shots.

If it doesn't stop the clock, I guess they got sick of suspenseful endings.

The answer is in my screen name.

brien evans wrote:

Gunndar wrote:

But of course neither of you paid attention in school either as there are occasions where one would use an apostrophe when one pluralizes.

One example is when pluralizing lower case letters. Example: You two clowns should have minded your p’s and q’s.

Last time I saw such a complete and utter takedown on LRC it was 2019 and someone got caught riding a bike. Bravo.

Really? The plural of p is ps, not p’s. Same with q.

Anyone unsure about usage of apostrophes should just omit them whatsoever. Using them improperly exposes you as ignorant. If you just omit them entirely, the worst you can be accused of is being lazy enough to include them properly.