I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
Once again....and look up the details yourself. Mgmt has apparently disabled embed so as to make debunking disinformational lies more difficult.
Frederik Plesner Lyngse
@LyngseF
We estimate a multivariable logistic regression.
We find that unvaccinated individuals are more susceptible and more infectious, while booster-vaccinated individuals are less susceptible and less infectious, compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
5/N
i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
This is something that I can definitely chime in on, it's actually what I did my second master's thesis on.
First though, the definition of risk is the severity of an outcome multiplied by the likelihood of it occuring. The severity of omicron is almost certainly less than that of delta, but because it is more transmissible, you're more likely to get it. On the individual level, if you're healthy you might like your chances and say your risk is lower, and you're probably right. From a public health standpoint, a lot of cases is going to mean a lot of hospitalizations (even if the rate per infection is lower), which overburdens the healthcare system, which leads to poor outcomes for all sorts of things. From that point of view, we'd say that the risk is as high as it's always been, and we'd probably be just as right as you are.
Second, and this was my thesis topic, the public abso-fricking-lutely terrible at judging risk. You might have someone who smokes be worried about getting cancer from their cell phone. Someone who drives 40,000 miles a year for work might be afraid of flying. People panicked over ebola, which had almost no chance of spreading within the US, but will forgo measles vaccination even though there are frequent outbreaks. It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. If someone has decided they're afraid of plane crashes, no amount of education on the safety of air travel will change their mind, even when you compare it to the risk of driving.
EpiRunner wrote:
i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
This is something that I can definitely chime in on, it's actually what I did my second master's thesis on.
First though, the definition of risk is the severity of an outcome multiplied by the likelihood of it occuring. The severity of omicron is almost certainly less than that of delta, but because it is more transmissible, you're more likely to get it. On the individual level, if you're healthy you might like your chances and say your risk is lower, and you're probably right. From a public health standpoint, a lot of cases is going to mean a lot of hospitalizations (even if the rate per infection is lower), which overburdens the healthcare system, which leads to poor outcomes for all sorts of things. From that point of view, we'd say that the risk is as high as it's always been, and we'd probably be just as right as you are.
Second, and this was my thesis topic, the public abso-fricking-lutely terrible at judging risk. You might have someone who smokes be worried about getting cancer from their cell phone. Someone who drives 40,000 miles a year for work might be afraid of flying. People panicked over ebola, which had almost no chance of spreading within the US, but will forgo measles vaccination even though there are frequent outbreaks. It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. If someone has decided they're afraid of plane crashes, no amount of education on the safety of air travel will change their mind, even when you compare it to the risk of driving.
My risk is lower today compared to any point in the past 663 days of Covid hysteria.
EpiRunner wrote:
. It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. .
This is what is killing us right now. People are vaxxed. People are boosted. Tons of people have been exposed. Therapeutics are available. There is a mountain of proof that Omicron variant is significantly milder. There has never been a better time to catch your inevitable first case of COVID. Because you’re not so stupid as to think you’re going to live the rest of your life without getting it, are you?
And yet people are freaking the F out. Even people who haven’t really given much of a crap about COVID before this, when risk was substantially higher, are freaking out.
It. Makes. No. Sense.
people suk wrote:
Yeah funny how the news is not mentioning the vaxxed are getting this “variant” almost exclusively.
But hey let’s urge everyone to get boosted even though that’s what’s making everyone sick😂
Makes sense. Wake up nerds. Game over. No more scam virus. Time to move along.
So people are vaccinated, protected against the more dangerous Delta and get the less dangerous Omicron, and this is a problem how? This is what we wanted. A variant that was less deadly.
i am so confused wrote:
EpiRunner wrote:
. It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. .
This is what is killing us right now. People are vaxxed. People are boosted. Tons of people have been exposed. Therapeutics are available. There is a mountain of proof that Omicron variant is significantly milder. There has never been a better time to catch your inevitable first case of COVID. Because you’re not so stupid as to think you’re going to live the rest of your life without getting it, are you?
And yet people are freaking the F out. Even people who haven’t really given much of a crap about COVID before this, when risk was substantially higher, are freaking out.
It. Makes. No. Sense.
Well I think it depends on who the people freaking out are and what your goal is.
If your only concern is your individual chances of getting seriously ill with covid and you're young and healthy, then you probably don't have much to worry about.
If you're not young and healthy, and your concern is about your own individual chances of getting seriously ill with covid, you're probably right to still worry.
If you're trying to run a hospital, and you're worried about not being overwhelmed, you're probably crapping your pants and rightfully so.
If you're a young healthy person who would hope that there will be an ICU bed available should they get hit by a car while running, you're probably still pretty worried, and rightfully so
EpiRunner wrote:
First though, the definition of risk is the severity of an outcome multiplied by the likelihood of it occuring. The severity of omicron is almost certainly less than that of delta, but because it is more transmissible, you're more likely to get it.
Plz expand on the math. The probability I would eventually get exposed to the delta variant was essentially 100%. The transmissibility of the omicron variant just means it will happen sooner.
i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
Panic has not gone up. Omicron is the most infectious one so far. It is also the least lethal. People are just taking precautions. Taking precautions isn't panic.
Omicron is not like a cold. It is still much more severe. My vaccinated but not boosted brother-in-law got Omicron over Christmas and he had a fever over 104. His blood oxygen level was very low and he almost had to go to the hospital before things turned around. People are still headed to the hospital and need that kind of medical care due to Omicron. That is not true for the common cold.
You make zero sense.
As much as i understand it from NIH persepctive, it is that the unvaccinated in particular still stand a chance of suffering a severity sufficient to require hospitalization, and since the Omicron variant is so much more infectious, this uptick in numbers will result in an uptick in hospitalizations.
Dr. Fauci was quoted on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos":
“We have got to be careful about that, because, even if you have a less of a percentage of severity, when you have multi-multi-multi-fold more people getting infected, the net amount is you’re still going to get a lot of people that are going to be needing hospitalization,”
And furthermore, he added: "“I’m still very concerned about the tens of millions of people who are not vaccinated at all because even though many of them are going to get asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, a fair number of them are going to get severe disease,”
I hope this helps.
seattle prattle wrote:
And furthermore, he added: "“I’m still very concerned about the tens of millions of people who are not vaccinated at all because even though many of them are going to get asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, a fair number of them are going to get severe disease,”
I hope this helps.
Nobody should be “concerned” about the unvaccinated. They aren’t concerned about themselves, and I’m sick of public policy making like miserable for the majority to protect an ignorant minority.
i am so confused wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And furthermore, he added: "“I’m still very concerned about the tens of millions of people who are not vaccinated at all because even though many of them are going to get asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, a fair number of them are going to get severe disease,”
I hope this helps.
Nobody should be “concerned” about the unvaccinated. They aren’t concerned about themselves, and I’m sick of public policy making like miserable for the majority to protect an ignorant minority.
I catch your drift but my bet is there's more than a few ICU nurses and doctors that are concerned about them, not to mention the Administrators of those hospitals.
i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
Its increased transmissibility might not be offset by the reduction in its lethality. Combine that with the fact that many millions of Americans are still unvaccinated and have no natural immunity, along with the fact that natural immunity has been rendered significantly less effective against this virus, and you can start to see ugly consequences in the coming months if current infection trends continue. This is not panic, it's fact, there should be no politics in this.
Look at US hospitalization numbers right now, they're surging. Sure, a good chunk of them are people who are being hospitalized WITH covid, but the ICU numbers don't lie; they have begun to surge too as deaths remain well over a thousand a day; hardly a situation where covid can be defined as endemic.
What they're really panicking about is that it's all gonna be over soon. No more scary pandemic fun, no more in it together, no more mask and needle virtue. They'll have to find something else to "care" about, if they can.
i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
Overall mortality rate right now is the same as 2005. So let's turn society upside-down and inside-out to save fat granny. From what we aren't sure because the testing is so fraudulent.
AZDZ wrote:
i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
Overall mortality rate right now is the same as 2005. So let's turn society upside-down and inside-out to save fat granny. From what we aren't sure because the testing is so fraudulent.
Where are you getting these figures from? Everywhere I've looked, deaths per 100,000 in 2020 exceeded 2005 figures. Just curious
Where are you seeing a hysterical response?
If someone says wear a mask? Can you point out where there is widespread hysteria?
Three people in my office have caught Omicon. They are staying at home next week. Is that hysteria?
EpiRunner wrote:
[quote]
It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. .
This may be an unfair assumption from your username, but if you are in fact an epidemiologist, do you feel that your profession as a whole has any culpability for this stagnation with respect to Covid specifically?
Smarter than youse wrote:
[quote]i am so confused wrote:
I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm.
Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!!
It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.
Panic has not gone up. Omicron is the most infectious one so far. It is also the least lethal. People are just taking precautions. Taking precautions isn't panic.
Omicron is not like a cold. It is still much more severe. My vaccinated but not boosted brother-in-law got Omicron over Christmas and he had a fever over 104. His blood oxygen level was very low and he almost had to go to the hospital before things turned around. People are still headed to the hospital and need that kind of medical care due to Omicron. That is not true for the common cold.
Not true. 99.9% plus of omicron cases are a head cold or milder.
Your bro had delta
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