Mohamed Katir: how soon will he totally annihilate mid-distance WRs?

RTP

I hope he does, but it’s just so difficult to believe his sudden progress. He was struggling for 3rd in euro indoors and then winning Diamond league races only a few months later. From 3:36 to 3:28?

Montjuic wrote:

I hope he does, but it’s just so difficult to believe his sudden progress. He was struggling for 3rd in euro indoors and then winning Diamond league races only a few months later. From 3:36 to 3:28?

Maybe his 3:36 from 2020 did not reflect his true potential. There were not many running opportunities in 2020. He was already running 3:37 back in 2019. Assume that he would have run 3:32 in Monaco (for example) in 2020 instead (age 22). It makes the progress more believable.

Bekele was 21 y.o. when he ran his 12:37 WR.

El Guerrouj was 23 y.o. when he ran his 3:26.00 WR.

I guess that you have to take some big chunks off your PB fast if you want to get to these times.

ghghgh wrote:

Montjuic wrote:

I hope he does, but it’s just so difficult to believe his sudden progress. He was struggling for 3rd in euro indoors and then winning Diamond league races only a few months later. From 3:36 to 3:28?

Maybe his 3:36 from 2020 did not reflect his true potential. There were not many running opportunities in 2020. He was already running 3:37 back in 2019. Assume that he would have run 3:32 in Monaco (for example) in 2020 instead (age 22). It makes the progress more believable.

Bekele was 21 y.o. when he ran his 12:37 WR.

El Guerrouj was 23 y.o. when he ran his 3:26.00 WR.

I guess that you have to take some big chunks off your PB fast if you want to get to these times.

I suppose that’s true, but to even go from 3:36 to a theoretical 3:32 to extreme. Then to progress from 3:32 to 3:28 is also a monumental jump.

It’s the same for his 3k 7:44 to 7:27.

Though, remember that the man you saw running for bronze in the euro indoors in 2021 was a 3:36 athlete. This gives me pause. That was not a 7:27 runner.

I hope it is done without cheating. I really do. He seems a joyful and passionate athlete.

Montjuic wrote:

I suppose that’s true, but to even go from 3:36 to a theoretical 3:32 to extreme. Then to progress from 3:32 to 3:28 is also a monumental jump.

It’s the same for his 3k 7:44 to 7:27.

Though, remember that the man you saw running for bronze in the euro indoors in 2021 was a 3:36 athlete. This gives me pause. That was not a 7:27 runner.

I hope it is done without cheating. I really do. He seems a joyful and passionate athlete.

He had already run 7:35 indoor (5th European all time) before that Euro bronze.

He also did not do well at the Olympics (8th)

Which leads me to think that he may simply not be a very good championship runner (unlike Farah, Hocker, Ahmed…) at this point at least.

ghghgh wrote:

Montjuic wrote:

I suppose that’s true, but to even go from 3:36 to a theoretical 3:32 to extreme. Then to progress from 3:32 to 3:28 is also a monumental jump.

It’s the same for his 3k 7:44 to 7:27.

Though, remember that the man you saw running for bronze in the euro indoors in 2021 was a 3:36 athlete. This gives me pause. That was not a 7:27 runner.

I hope it is done without cheating. I really do. He seems a joyful and passionate athlete.

He had already run 7:35 indoor (5th European all time) before that Euro bronze.

He also did not do well at the Olympics (8th)

Which leads me to think that he may simply not be a very good championship runner (unlike Farah, Hocker, Ahmed…) at this point at least.

Fingers crossed. I wish the best for this young athlete.

San Silvestre Vallecana Madrid 10k is a downhill course (710 m - - - - > 640 m)

Downhill10k wrote:

San Silvestre Vallecana Madrid 10k is a downhill course (710 m - - - - > 640 m)

Ok, but his 73s improvement from last year is on the same course.

Katir will humiliate Yakob again.

I’m 99% sure that he will break the Euro 3000m indoor record of 7:32 in the next few weeks

I’m 40% sure that he will break the World 3000m indoor record of 7:24.9 this winter.

Alright, I'm convinced.

Katir is currently the best European distance runner.

I’m also 90% sure that he would break the Euro 1500m indoor record of 3:31.8 if he tried one this winter

…and 80% sure that he would break the WR of 3:31.0

ghghgh wrote:

I’m also 90% sure that he would break the Euro 1500m indoor record of 3:31.8 if he tried one this winter

…and 80% sure that he would break the WR of 3:31.0

“74% of statistics quoted on the internet are fabricated.”

-Napoleon Bonaparte

He might break a few records if he catches the right breaks, but totally annihilate the sacred stuff, no, never gonna happen.

What's more important to him, ya think-- running fast laps or picking up hardware?

2021 saw him break a few national records, but not be crowned national champion. He ran a fast 5000, but couldn't medal.

Until he can win medals, he'll be the Asafa Powell of middle distance running.

OozmaKappa wrote:

Alright, I'm convinced.

Katir is currently the best European distance runner.

Krippa is. Or soon will be.

ghghgh wrote:

Montjuic wrote:

I hope he does, but it’s just so difficult to believe his sudden progress. He was struggling for 3rd in euro indoors and then winning Diamond league races only a few months later. From 3:36 to 3:28?

Maybe his 3:36 from 2020 did not reflect his true potential. There were not many running opportunities in 2020. He was already running 3:37 back in 2019. Assume that he would have run 3:32 in Monaco (for example) in 2020 instead (age 22). It makes the progress more believable.

Bekele was 21 y.o. when he ran his 12:37 WR.

El Guerrouj was 23 y.o. when he ran his 3:26.00 WR.

I guess that you have to take some big chunks off your PB fast if you want to get to these times.

3:36 did reflect his potential. He was a strength based 1:51 guy with no basic speed.

Montjuic wrote:

ghghgh wrote:

I’m also 90% sure that he would break the Euro 1500m indoor record of 3:31.8 if he tried one this winter

…and 80% sure that he would break the WR of 3:31.0

I'm 90% sure he could break the Euro 5000m record

True

#Dinggy ding Dong Katir is Gone wrote:

ghghgh wrote:

Maybe his 3:36 from 2020 did not reflect his true potential. There were not many running opportunities in 2020. He was already running 3:37 back in 2019….

3:36 did reflect his potential. He was a strength based 1:51 guy with no basic speed.

I also doubt that 1:51 was his actual potential in 2018 (when he also ran 3:37). He was certainly (at least) a 1:48 guy in 2020 (had he had a few good opportunities)

I wonder what type of 800m time he could run now. I assume 1:46

*2019