With a 13:22 5000m at age 19, it seems the odds are in his favor to break 13 at some point in his career. He seems like a Ritz-level talent to me. Even if he isn't able to improve his kick to win national championships and yadda yadda yadda, I think he'll be able to improve his engine to time trial solid times in the 5000/10000. I'll put the odds of him breaking 13 at 60%.
13:07
I think you’re just about right
23 seconds is a lot of time to chop off at that end of the performance spectrum. However, if he gets to 13:12-13:15ish by the end of his NAU days, which he probably will, it's likely that he'll have a nice little leap in his first years as a professional. Say 13:0x. After that it's just about getting into the right races. There are never any guarantees and injuries happen.
Spiked For Life wrote:
23 seconds is a lot of time to chop off at that end of the performance spectrum. However, if he gets to 13:12-13:15ish by the end of his NAU days, which he probably will, it's likely that he'll have a nice little leap in his first years as a professional. Say 13:0x. After that it's just about getting into the right races. There are never any guarantees and injuries happen.
The last part is especially important. A supremely talented runner can do everything right and never run under 13:00. But I agree, Nico seems to have a natural ability on the level of any American sub-13:00 man except Lagat, and if he keeps working hard for the next 10-15 years and stays healthy when it counts, he may do it.
my two pennies wrote:
Spiked For Life wrote:
23 seconds is a lot of time to chop off at that end of the performance spectrum. However, if he gets to 13:12-13:15ish by the end of his NAU days, which he probably will, it's likely that he'll have a nice little leap in his first years as a professional. Say 13:0x. After that it's just about getting into the right races. There are never any guarantees and injuries happen.
The last part is especially important. A supremely talented runner can do everything right and never run under 13:00. But I agree, Nico seems to have a natural ability on the level of any American sub-13:00 man except Lagat, and if he keeps working hard for the next 10-15 years and stays healthy when it counts, he may do it.
Improvement will come from continued physical maturation and staying healthy. Most 5000/10000m runners achieve their lifetime PRs around age 25. Rupp is a bit of an outlier having run his 26:44 at age 28.
Africans are younger.
blue man wrote:
Africans are younger.
And older. East-Africans aren't good comparables to other ethnicities.
blue man wrote:
Africans are younger.
So what? This is a thread about Nico running sub-13, not about him beating Africans. The age of Africans have nothing to do with the topic.
Pay attention. I said nothing about him racing or beating Africans. A poster said men peak at 25. I pointed out that some men peak before 25 so there may not he as much time to improve as some may think. My post had everything to do with the topic while yours was merely mean spirited and did not contribute.
blue man wrote:
Pay attention. I said nothing about him racing or beating Africans. A poster said men peak at 25. I pointed out that some men peak before 25 so there may not he as much time to improve as some may think. My post had everything to do with the topic while yours was merely mean spirited and did not contribute.
If you look up the ages for the Americans that broke 13 minutes, their PRs were at ages from 26-28.
Of course there are Americans that have physically peaked early, some as a senior in HS, but the path to sub-13 is likely to be steady improvement into one's mid-20s.
blue man wrote:
Pay attention. I said nothing about him racing or beating Africans. A poster said men peak at 25. I pointed out that some men peak before 25 so there may not he as much time to improve as some may think. My post had everything to do with the topic while yours was merely mean spirited and did not contribute.
Fair enough. I accept your criticism.
on point wrote:
blue man wrote:
Pay attention. I said nothing about him racing or beating Africans. A poster said men peak at 25. I pointed out that some men peak before 25 so there may not he as much time to improve as some may think. My post had everything to do with the topic while yours was merely mean spirited and did not contribute.
Fair enough. I accept your criticism.
But following up, many Africans who ran in western countries also PR'd later - e.g. Lagat, Farah. Nico Young doesn't have the financial pressure to be world class at a younger age that many Africans have who may peak younger.
on point wrote:
on point wrote:
Fair enough. I accept your criticism.
But following up, many Africans who ran in western countries also PR'd later - e.g. Lagat, Farah. Nico Young doesn't have the financial pressure to be world class at a younger age that many Africans have who may peak younger.
You don't believe Nico is training hard at NAU? Money doesn't make anyone run faster and I'm sure goals such as winning the N.C.A.A. XC championship will provide him with all the motivation he needs.
I am curious at what age the sub 13 Americans ran it. I will assume that your overall statement is correct.
Great start, long way to go.
Not quite a Ritz level talent, but 5-7 seconds for the spikes and Ritz himself running a few seconds under makes it possible. Fisher will go under 13 this year I imagine. Nico I think will run in the 12:58-13:04 range. Unfortunately, that’s about the baseline to be there with 800m to go on the world level and nothing more.
Not quite a Ritz level talent, but 5-7 seconds for the spikes and Ritz himself running a few seconds under makes it possible. Fisher will go under 13 this year I imagine. Nico I think will run in the 12:58-13:04 range. Unfortunately, that’s about the baseline to be there with 800m to go on the world level and nothing more.
Who is the youngest American to break 13?
hchvv wrote:
Who is the youngest American to break 13?
It will be Nico Young at 20-21