sub 14? really? wrote:
stats and analysis wrote:
There is 0 chance Woodward is only 18 seconds slower than a track. We did the analysis, people run 40+ ish seconds faster on the track.
Let’s peg it to 3k times —
German 8:34 / 14:24
Nico 14:28 / 7:56 3k
Newbury Park has 3 boys sub 14 right now, 1 sub 14:10, and 2 more sub 14:30.
So instead of all this speculation about their 'theoretical' 5000 PBs, why not use real ones. Everyone here assigns these flamboyant times that these kids have 'conceptually' run, but literally haven't. Then, worse yet, extrapolate these non-existent PRs to 8 or 10k. All this for kids who literally don't have verifiable times over standard distances (3000, 5000, 10000, etc.) and none of whom have ever even finished a race longer than 5k.
All this is to say that all the math and wild speculation means little when compared to other athletes (the leading D3 teams, for example, or even Mantz) whose performances, especially over longer distances, we are absolutely certain of given they were measured to the 1/100th of a second.
Maybe they're all pretty good, perhaps some will eventually be great, But assigning these 5000 times that they have never run as unofficial PRs, then extrapolating to even less official 8 or 10k PRs is a little too speculative for me to take seriously. The whole 'could break 29 for a track 10000 right now' type of thing that pops up every once in a while for high school runners is ridiculous and rebutted by the following:
Well, go ahead and do it.
There's a reason every teenager these days doesn't easily break the old (and in the case of 10000m, very old) US HS records. Everyone winning a State Meet isn't necessarily an all-time great. Are 4 of these guys beyond Rupp, or even Pre at the same age? I believe not - and I'd suggest none are close to the relatively recent Lukas V.
By the way, another, unrelated point:
These races are being run in Vaporflys. Let's see how that works out on a wet, muddy, slick course.