NCAA Predicted Men's Individual top 10 

Mantz is the favorite but this is more wide open than it's been in a while..

From a different thread I just bumped:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Anyone else gambling on Athanas Kioko of Campbell to win? Having run 13:13 at NCAAs in June and easily winning all his races this XC season (admittedly less competitive races than some of his competition, being in the Big South Conference), there seems like a chance that he’s flying under the radar at a different level than the rest of the field. The man ran a 3:38 1500 to win by 3 seconds at the North Florida Invite in April, and just ran 28:58 for 10k XC to win the Southeast Regional by 20 seconds.

And my top 10 predictions in the prediction contest:

1. Athanas Kioko

2. Wesley Kiptoo

3. Conner Mantz

4. Adriaan Wildschutt

5. Cooper Teare

6. Eduardo Herrera

7. Nico Young

8. Abdihamid Nur

9. Casey Clinger

10. Charles Hicks

With all respect to Isai Rodriguez and others; there are just more than ten guys I want to put top-10, it’s tough.

Don't sleep on Kieran Lumb

pinecone wrote:

Don't sleep on Kieran Lumb

I won’t even sleep with him, much less on him.

I'd probably make my picks based on the "Win %" column. Its tough to pick between Kiptoo and Mantz given their seasons. Kiptoo has run "better" races so far, but not much that compares to Mantz's run for the win last year (13:01 equivalent for this year, 13:12 equivalent for 2020 track).

A potential factor: Kiptoo's run last weekend converts to a 13:44 - a pretty easy effort for someone like him. Mantz had to run harder with a 13:26 equivalent.

On their best days, I take Mantz. On an average day, I take Kiptoo. I'll go with

1) Kiptoo (13:12 at Big 12s)

2) Mantz (13:01 @ 2020 NCAAs)

3) Rodriguez (13:06 @ Cowboy Jamboree)

4) Wildschutt (13:18 @ FSU, 13:11 @ 2020 NCAAs)

5) Young (13:26 @ Regionals, 13:15 @ 2020 NCAAs)

6) Teare (13:12 in track)

7) Kioko (13:13 in track)

8) Nur (13:22 @ FSU, 13:18 @2020 NCAAs)

9) Herrera (13:18 2020 FSU, 13:24 @ Cowboy)

10) Jacobs (13:22 @ FSU)

I'll probably change my rankings if conditions look bad (Teare and Kioko moving down, Mantz to the top). There might be an argument for putting Victor Kiprop in there.

lmfao Mantz is a JR??

I agree

Why in the world do y’all have teare this high? He’s been beat by hicks several times and at regionals by lumb as well. Teare might not even make top 10!

Not sure why Let’s Run (and Track & Field News) do not have Charles Hicks in the top 10. Chuck is a racer, he runs up to his competition, has run mid 27:00 for 10 on the track, has run this course numerous times in high school. Top 5 for sure.

Because he is an NCAA record holder. In the right race, he could win. In the wrong race, he could get 15th. I would rank him in the middle at 8th.

You all are forgetting that Adriaan Wildschutt is competing on his own home course in 70+ degree temperatures. Hicks is also racing in his home state, close to home (Jacksonville). Don't count him out either.

1. Wildschutt

2. Mantz

3. Kiptoo

4. Kioko

5. Rodriguez

6. Hicks

7. Young

8. Nur

9. Teare

10. Jacobs

Herrera has seemed to struggle at NCAA's based on recent results and is coming down from altitude to a very different climate, hence why I left him out of the top 10. I think Jacobs has the talent and ability to place higher, but I like my odds with this top 10 list.

I will note that Kipsang and Kiprop of Alabama cant be counted out, along with Nuguse, Muhumed, Bienenfield, Mwuara, and Clinger.

CoastToCoast wrote:

You all are forgetting that Adriaan Wildschutt is competing on his own home course in 70+ degree temperatures.

Mantz did already beat Wildschutt on that course at the Pre-Nats but I agree that Wildschutt will get the best of him this time around. Kiptoo will be more disciplined and patient than he was at the last NCAA championship. He will also have fresher legs since he would not have raced a 5K indoor just a few days previous to the XC championship. He will challenge for the win but Wildschutt will have just the slightest of advantages since it's his home course.

1. Adriaan Wildschutt

2. Wesley Kiptoo

3. Conner Mantz

4. Nico Young

5. Cooper Teare

6. Abdihamid Nur

7. Isai Rodriguez

8. Aaron Bienenfeld

9. Charles Hicks

10. Eduardo Herrera

I think Mantz will win again — he’s beaten everyone except for Kioko. Kioko could give him trouble, but seems more of a 3000/5000 guy than a 10,000 guy. Mantz is pure cross country. Down the line, I think Cooper Teare and Nico Young have been saving their best for last and will finish a bit higher than their season results might indicate. The true wildcard in my view is Isai — he has some great results but seems to flounder other races. He could win or not be Top 10 and I wouldn’t be surprised. If I am underestimating one person more than I should, it’s definitely Wildschutt, but my feel is that he will run about as well as last year but that Kiptoo and Young will run a bit better and Teare will get thrown in the mix after skipping last year, so he’ll move down a few spots. My best guess:

1. Mantz

2. Kiptoo

3. Teare

4. Young

5. Wildschutt

6. Kioko

7. Nur

8. Rodriguez

9. Herrera

10. Hicks

Although this year is an absolute toss up, I very much agree with this list. Would love to see Nico win but the big three are just better than him. Not taking anything away from Cooper but he hasn’t wowed me yet this fall. I can also see this coming down to a sprint finish:

1) Wildschutt

2) Kiptoo

3) Mantz

4) Young

5) Teare

6) Rodríguez

7) Hererra

8) Hicks

9) Nur

10) Kioko

Also forgot that Mantz is still a junior but I assume this will be his final xc outing.

rojo wrote:

Alternatively, Bijan H. Mazaheri's algorithm has the top 10 as follows.

1 Wesley Kiptoo 13:18 (13:14 - 13:23) Iowa State JR

2 Adriaan Wildschutt 13:22 (13:17 - 13:28) Florida State JR

3 Conner Mantz 13:22 (13:15 - 13:30) BYU JR

4 Cooper Teare 13:23 (13:15 - 13:33) Oregon SR

5 Nico Young 13:24 (13:19 - 13:30) Northern Arizona FR

6 Abdihamid Nur 13:24 (13:19 - 13:30) Northern Arizona SO

7 Eduardo Herrera 13:24 (13:21 - 13:28) Colorado SR

8 Athanas Kioko 13:24 (13:17 - 13:33) Campbell SR

9 Isai Rodriguez 13:25 (13:15 - 13:36) Oklahoma State JR

10 Dylan Jacobs 13:27 (13:22 - 13:33) Notre Dame JR

So basically his "algorithm" is just ranking them by their PR lol

Not Nomar wrote:

Not sure why Let’s Run (and Track & Field News) do not have Charles Hicks in the top 10. Chuck is a racer, he runs up to his competition, has run mid 27:00 for 10 on the track, has run this course numerous times in high school. Top 5 for sure.

How does having run the course before give anyone an advantage?

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Not Nomar wrote:

Not sure why Let’s Run (and Track & Field News) do not have Charles Hicks in the top 10. Chuck is a racer, he runs up to his competition, has run mid 27:00 for 10 on the track, has run this course numerous times in high school. Top 5 for sure.

How does having run the course before give anyone an advantage?

Seriously?

Experience on a course can be a big advantage. Not saying that it can't be overcome, but being familiar with a course adds a level of comfort. You can formulate a more specific race plan and know what areas can be exploited. When you are familiar with a course you typically have a very good sense of where you are at in the race in terms of distance and be more calculated and precise with moves and surges and finishing kick.