Race doesn’t start until Courmayeur at earliest but normally much later, say Champex, the people that have saved themselves for the last three horror show climbs normally win. This year the weather is perfect for a fast one but the utmb has become so competitive it is nearly diamond league with rabbits territory now so forget about who leads early on as it’s a company strategy (Hoka, ASICS, addidas, Salomon, whoever). Still I say it’s D’Haene and Pascall even with hardrock and WS in legs.
False Prophet wrote:
Race doesn’t start until Courmayeur at earliest but normally much later, say Champex, the people that have saved themselves for the last three horror show climbs normally win. This year the weather is perfect for a fast one but the utmb has become so competitive it is nearly diamond league with rabbits territory now so forget about who leads early on as it’s a company strategy (Hoka, ASICS, addidas, Salomon, whoever). Still I say it’s D’Haene and Pascall even with hardrock and WS in legs.
Agreed it's way early.
I'd argue the breakpoint tends to come between Col Ferret > La Fouly, or La Fouly > Champex at the latest, and whoever leaves Champex in the lead wins. But of course we're splitting hairs here.
Jim/Francois just went thru Col du Bonhomme in the lead.
Xavier and dhaene for 1 and 2, would bet on dhaene to win and stay undefeated at utmb. Also first runner to win hardrock and utmb in the same year - though Xavier would have if he wasnt unjustly disqualified. Walmsley top 5. Tim top 10.
Over the Hills and Far Away wrote:
Jim/Francois just went thru Col du Bonhomme in the lead.
If these two are teaming up, as expected, it’s likely a race for third.
utmb123 wrote:
Xavier and dhaene for 1 and 2, would bet on dhaene to win and stay undefeated at utmb. Also first runner to win hardrock and utmb in the same year - though Xavier would have if he wasnt unjustly disqualified. Walmsley top 5. Tim top 10.
1) Jim seems to be running quite well so far and utilizing better strategy (re: being new bff and pacing with Francois). I suggest he'll be top 3 or DNF.
2) Suggesting Xavier would have doubled HR/UTMB is speculative at best - he went into UTMB with a huge chip on his shoulder which no doubt worked to his advantage. No need to "re-litigate" that DQ - it was what it was with legit arguments on both sides, but it's all water over the dam now.
3) Yeah he's (Xavier) obviously a favorite for the podium, he always brings it here. But if both Jim and Francois hold up, I don't think he overtakes?
We'll see!
Over the Hills and Far Away wrote:
utmb123 wrote:
Xavier and dhaene for 1 and 2, would bet on dhaene to win and stay undefeated at utmb. Also first runner to win hardrock and utmb in the same year - though Xavier would have if he wasnt unjustly disqualified. Walmsley top 5. Tim top 10.
1) Jim seems to be running quite well so far and utilizing better strategy (re: being new bff and pacing with Francois). I suggest he'll be top 3 or DNF.
2) Suggesting Xavier would have doubled HR/UTMB is speculative at best - he went into UTMB with a huge chip on his shoulder which no doubt worked to his advantage. No need to "re-litigate" that DQ - it was what it was with legit arguments on both sides, but it's all water over the dam now.
3) Yeah he's (Xavier) obviously a favorite for the podium, he always brings it here. But if both Jim and Francois hold up, I don't think he overtakes?
We'll see!
Francoise and Jim hit Les Chapieux in 5:07.25. In comparison, Pau Capell's split was 4:53:36 on his record 2019 run (20:19:07).
I specialize in dumb comments. wrote:
Over the Hills and Far Away wrote:
1) Jim seems to be running quite well so far and utilizing better strategy (re: being new bff and pacing with Francois). I suggest he'll be top 3 or DNF.
2) Suggesting Xavier would have doubled HR/UTMB is speculative at best - he went into UTMB with a huge chip on his shoulder which no doubt worked to his advantage. No need to "re-litigate" that DQ - it was what it was with legit arguments on both sides, but it's all water over the dam now.
3) Yeah he's (Xavier) obviously a favorite for the podium, he always brings it here. But if both Jim and Francois hold up, I don't think he overtakes?
We'll see!
Francoise and Jim hit Les Chapieux in 5:07.25. In comparison, Pau Capell's split was 4:53:36 on his record 2019 run (20:19:07).
Yeah I saw this year's split but didn't trace it back to Pau's, good call out.
Due to the (usually minor but sometimes not) variations in the exact course year to year the true CR is kind of nebulous. I seriously doubt any of the runners care regardless.
Jim has now reached Col de la Seigne in 6:32:46.
Pau was 6:22:25.
Perhaps Jim is starting to turn the screws. A bit too early though?
I agree that the record is of far less importance than the victory or even a podium spot. But, for those that want to follow along, here are the rest of Pau's splits:
Sorry in advance if it's poor formatting.
Chamonix 0:00
Les Houches 00:31:51
Saint-Gervais 01:45:42
Les Contamines Montjoie 02:42:18
La Balme 03:34:50
Refuge de la Croix du Bonhomme 04:30:29
Les Chapieux 04:53:36
Col de la Seigne 06:22:25
Lac Combal 07:11:48
Arête du Mont-Favre 07:51:17
Col Checrouit Maison Vieille 08:15:37
Courmayeur - Mountain Sport Center 08:38:00
Courmayeur - Mountain Sport Center 08:41:10
Refuge Bertone 09:38:04
Refuge Bonatti 10:28:48
Arnouvaz 11:02:38
Grand Col Ferret 12:00:41
La Fouly 12:57:01
Champex-Lac 14:23:46
La Giète 16:00:02
Trient 16:27:35
Les Tseppes 17:12:44
Vallorcine 17:55:52
La Tête aux vents 19:17:04
La Flégère 19:41:41
Chamonix S 20:19:07
The bro-down is real and on. Hope it continues to the finish
Remember that one of Francois' victories is what he calls "hollow, like half vintage" since it was cut short in 2012. Should be good as all three are not on top of their games right now.
Francois is winning this race, it’s just a question of if big Jim can hold on for 2nd
I specialize in dumb comments. wrote:
I agree that the record is of far less importance than the victory or even a podium spot. But, for those that want to follow along, here are the rest of Pau's splits:
Sorry in advance if it's poor formatting.
Chamonix 0:00
Les Houches 00:31:51
Saint-Gervais 01:45:42
Les Contamines Montjoie 02:42:18
La Balme 03:34:50
Refuge de la Croix du Bonhomme 04:30:29
Les Chapieux 04:53:36
Col de la Seigne 06:22:25
Lac Combal 07:11:48
Arête du Mont-Favre 07:51:17
Col Checrouit Maison Vieille 08:15:37
Courmayeur - Mountain Sport Center 08:38:00
Courmayeur - Mountain Sport Center 08:41:10
Refuge Bertone 09:38:04
Refuge Bonatti 10:28:48
Arnouvaz 11:02:38
Grand Col Ferret 12:00:41
La Fouly 12:57:01
Champex-Lac 14:23:46
La Giète 16:00:02
Trient 16:27:35
Les Tseppes 17:12:44
Vallorcine 17:55:52
La Tête aux vents 19:17:04
La Flégère 19:41:41
Chamonix S 20:19:07
Awesome, thanks for that. I think the most telling split will be Ferret.
[On a (useless) side note, I loved Ferret so much I returned several years later and skimo'd back up to it.]
We should get our next men's split soon as Francoise and Jim are still together.
Courtney D and Mimmi are separated by two and a half minutes at Col de la Seigne. 7:14-7:17 respectively.
I specialize in dumb comments. wrote:
We should get our next men's split soon as Francoise and Jim are still together.
Courtney D and Mimmi are separated by two and a half minutes at Col de la Seigne. 7:14-7:17 respectively.
Lac Combal at 7:18, pace is heating up.
Big news - Xavier has dropped. Yikes - the carnage begins.
Mimmi is hot on Courtney's heels at Lac Combal, just over 2 min back (seems to be closing). Big lead on the rest
I just hate that Jim runs Francois race instead of his own. Learn from Pau and just hammer. Francois loves this chill stuff. Walms needs to redline Francois like what he did to him at Western and then Francois cracks.
Jim and Francois together at Courmayeur. Cold night apparently