We are yet to see if Kenenisa Bekele has a successful event in Berlin. If then he decides to back up and go again here, he will start as favourite. His best is only two seconds short of the WR and is widely regarded as the long distance running GOAT. He wouldn't run the 35k trial that his country insisted he run to compete at the Olympics, so he didn't go.
Newly crowned Olympic Champion Peres Jepchirchir will comfortably win here. Took 6.34 off her PB to win Valencia last December in 2.17.16. Had an amazing 2020 at the half winning Prague in 65.34 then the Worlds in Poland in 65.16.
No way. I hope he runs it!
Aussiestatman wrote:
We are yet to see if Kenenisa Bekele has a successful event in Berlin. If then he decides to back up and go again here, he will start as favourite. His best is only two seconds short of the WR and is widely regarded as the long distance running GOAT. He wouldn't run the 35k trial that his country insisted he run to compete at the Olympics, so he didn't go.
Albert Korir may be second. Has a second here already on his resume, in 2019. Earlier that year won in Houston and Ottawa. The latter is his PB of 2.08.03
Aussiestatman wrote:
Newly crowned Olympic Champion Peres Jepchirchir will comfortably win here. Took 6.34 off her PB to win Valencia last December in 2.17.16. Had an amazing 2020 at the half winning Prague in 65.34 then the Worlds in Poland in 65.16.
Runner-up might be Ruti Aga with a PB of 2.18.34 when second in Berlin three years ago. Seventh in Valencia last December just five seconds outside 2.20. Third here in 2019 and earlier that year won Tokyo in 2.20.40
Third placed man next: who do you think? Olympic silver medallist?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Third placed man next: who do you think? Olympic silver medallist?
Or Kibiwott Kandie on debut?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Third placed man next: who do you think? Olympic silver medallist?
Or Kibiwott Kandie on debut?
I am going with Kandie on debut. He is now king of the half, almost unbeatable.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Newly crowned Olympic Champion Peres Jepchirchir will comfortably win here. Took 6.34 off her PB to win Valencia last December in 2.17.16. Had an amazing 2020 at the half winning Prague in 65.34 then the Worlds in Poland in 65.16.
Runner-up might be Ruti Aga with a PB of 2.18.34 when second in Berlin three years ago. Seventh in Valencia last December just five seconds outside 2.20. Third here in 2019 and earlier that year won Tokyo in 2.20.40
The race to close out the women’s podium may be between Olympic bronze medalist Molly Seidel and Ababel Yeshaneh. Ababel finished two at this classic distance at ages 20 and 21. Years later, in 2018, was second on the short course of Abu Dhabi in 2.20.16. Was second in Chicago in 2019 in 2.20.51. Early last year ran a half in RAK in 64.31, WR at that time.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Or Kibiwott Kandie on debut?
I am going with Kandie on debut. He is now king of the half, almost unbeatable.
So fourth becomes Abdi Nageeye. Holds the NR at 2.06.17 when fourth in Rotterdam in 2019.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Runner-up might be Ruti Aga with a PB of 2.18.34 when second in Berlin three years ago. Seventh in Valencia last December just five seconds outside 2.20. Third here in 2019 and earlier that year won Tokyo in 2.20.40
The race to close out the women’s podium may be between Olympic bronze medalist Molly Seidel and Ababel Yeshaneh. Ababel finished two at this classic distance at ages 20 and 21. Years later, in 2018, was second on the short course of Abu Dhabi in 2.20.16. Was second in Chicago in 2019 in 2.20.51. Early last year ran a half in RAK in 64.31, WR at that time.
Seidel next: brilliant running to take third at the Olympics. PB of 2.25.13 when 6th in London last October. I am sure that will come down to a sub 2.22 on a flat course, not here.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
I am going with Kandie on debut. He is now king of the half, almost unbeatable.
So fourth becomes Abdi Nageeye. Holds the NR at 2.06.17 when fourth in Rotterdam in 2019.
Next might be most intelligent people's pick for the range GOAT: Augustine Choge on debut [again]. Best at the half is 59.26 at RAK in 2017 when third. Equal 24th all-time at 1500 and 27th at 3000.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
I am going with Kandie on debut. He is now king of the half, almost unbeatable.
So fourth becomes Abdi Nageeye. Holds the NR at 2.06.17 when fourth in Rotterdam in 2019.
It seemed odd at the end of the Olympic marathon that he coaxed Bashir Abdi past Lawrence Cherono into third. An Australian commentator called it, ‘doing a Dubler’.
Fifth lady may be Emily Sisson. Sixth in London in 2019 in 2.23.08. Was 10th at the Olympics over 25 laps of the track.
Sixth could be Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, still only 25yo. Won World Champs in 2015. The next year was enormous starting with a time that until recently was his PB of 2.07.46 when fourth in London. Followed that with fourth at the Rio Olympics and winning here. Was tenth in Siena last April in an improved PB of 2.07.11
Aussiestatman wrote:
Fifth lady may be Emily Sisson. Sixth in London in 2019 in 2.23.08. Was 10th at the Olympics over 25 laps of the track.
Next should be 41yo Namibian, Helalia Johannes. PB is the NR of 2.19.52 when 3rd in Valencia last Dec. Finished 11th at the Olympics.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Fifth lady may be Emily Sisson. Sixth in London in 2019 in 2.23.08. Was 10th at the Olympics over 25 laps of the track.
Next should be 41yo Namibian, Helalia Johannes. PB is the NR of 2.19.52 when 3rd in Valencia last Dec. Finished 11th at the Olympics.
Following is what I wrote about my 16th ranked marathoner 8 months ago:
From one of the youngest to two of the oldest at 15 and 16: Gladys Cherono and Helalia Johannes. Gladys first: 37yo, fourth in London 2019 in 2.20.52 after winning Berlin in 2018 in 2.18.11.
Then Johannes the Namibian at 16, up from 22 eight months ago. Broke the O/40 WR when third in Valencia in 2.19.52. Was third at the World Champs last year in oppressive humidity while others dropped out all around her. Has represented her country at the last 3 Olympics and held the NR since 2012 when she took it away from her compatriot who is five months older than her, Beata Naigambo. Helalia has the top three times among her countrywomen and eight of the top 12, with Beata owning the other 4.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Sixth could be Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, still only 25yo. Won World Champs in 2015. The next year was enormous starting with a time that until recently was his PB of 2.07.46 when fourth in London. Followed that with fourth at the Rio Olympics and winning here. Was tenth in Siena last April in an improved PB of 2.07.11
Next might be Eyob Faniel, holder of the NR of Italy [2.07.19] when 7th in Seville last year. Was 20th at the Olympics in 2.15.11 and before that was 15th at Worlds in 2019. Once in 2017, he won a marathon in Venice after the leaders took a wrong turn: story follows.
https://apnews.com/article/117678291f3f446483036e279bba4745Seventh lady might be Nancy Kiprop, now 42 years old. PB of 2.22.12 when winning Vienna in 2019. Also won there the previous two years: winning margins in 2018 and 2019 were 5.33 and 3.25.
Eighth to complete the distance may be Jared Ward. Was 17th in London last October in 2.12.38. 6th here in 2019 in 2.10.45 and 8th in Boston that year 80 sec quicker. Sixth in the Rio Olympics.