Alternate Reality Tokyo OG: Mu vs. Sydney, Jakob vs. Cheptegei & More

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OK but Barega could win the 4000m, and yet you did not list him at all. He would easily be top 3.

Ethiopia would be way more impactful in the men’s 4,000. It’d be Barega, Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet likely all in the top 6 with Barega winning.

Men’s 1000-wise, I don’t know if we’re assuming health for Tim but I think that speed would sink him…he’s out of my top 8. Rotich would beat Kerr pretty handily IMO. And Giles would be a greater factor.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Ethiopia would be way more impactful in the men’s 4,000. It’d be Barega, Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet likely all in the top 6 with Barega winning.

Men’s 1000-wise, I don’t know if we’re assuming health for Tim but I think that speed would sink him…he’s out of my top 8. Rotich would beat Kerr pretty handily IMO. And Giles would be a greater factor.

Oh, there is still a 10,000, and Ethiopia’s federation is still full of numbskulls.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Men’s 1000-wise, I don’t know if we’re assuming health for Tim but I think that speed would sink him…he’s out of my top 8. Rotich would beat Kerr pretty handily IMO. And Giles would be a greater factor.

Wasn’t it you who said yesterday that Cheruiyot would be the premiere 1K runner in the world, when healthy? I tend to agree. You might be right that his nagging injury problem might be more detrimental at a shorter distance, but he did run 3:29.0 flat for silver, not like he bombed or anything...

Not sure why you’d expect Giles to be a greater factor than 6th. Sure, it might be his ideal distance, but dude failed to make the 800 final, and here he’d be up against the stronger of the 800 men and the faster 1500 men, no lack of competition. 6th would be pretty good, I’d think.

I think Zambrano could run 57 mid, and amos should be higher. I'd put Gardiner ahead of Benjamin too.

paris2024hawk wrote:

I think Zambrano could run 57 mid, and amos should be higher. I'd put Gardiner ahead of Benjamin too.

Thanks for the input. The 500 is tough to predict, and all your suggestions seem quite viable.

Zambrano on one hand isn’t a very fast 200m runner, which might suggest he’d be strong over 500, but he’s just so dang muscular/stocky it’s hard to think he’d last any longer than that. You might be right.

I think Amos would have been a recurring championship finalist at the 500 over the past decade. The only reason I have him last, to be honest, is because a) to make it look realistic, somebody has to underperform now and then, and b) Amos underperformed in the 800 final, and has been known to underperform on the world stage.

Gardiner might be the best in the world, or he might stick with the 200m. It’s hard to say.

What do you think the 500 WR would be, if it were the regular championship/DL distance?

I would be surprised if the Bronze medalist at 400m hurdles, Alison Dos Santos, couldn’t make the top 8 at 500m. When you can do 46.72 in the 400m hurdles, a fast flat 500m is likely.

56.25- 56.75 would probably be the wr if athletes ran it consistently. I think Wayde or Jeremy wariner would have it.

Right off the bat, your times don't work. Sydney ran a low 50 opening leg for the 4x4. So Muhammad's 48.5 split is a solid second faster accounting for being a split versus opening leg. So your 500m results don't even make sense just right there.

If lewandowski didn’t become injured id put him in the top 5 of the 1000m easily. He is a 1.44 runner now with supreme tactics and endurance

holterskolter2 wrote:

Right off the bat, your times don't work. Sydney ran a low 50 opening leg for the 4x4. So Muhammad's 48.5 split is a solid second faster accounting for being a split versus opening leg. So your 500m results don't even make sense just right there.

Pretty sure you’re wrong on their splits, with Sydney at 49.9x and Muhammad at 48.97, unless I’m mistaken. Given that one’s a lead-off and one’s with a running start, those are actually pretty close. Factor in that McLaughlin won both of her matchups with Muhammad at their target event in world record times and I think it’s a real possibility that she would beat her in a flat 500, or 400/300/200/600, if that were the event they were targeting—certainly she can’t be dismissed as casually as you’ve done.

Cheptegai wins it for me as long as he and Kiplimo are as aggressive as they were. No one would beat him of those listed.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Oh, there is still a 10,000, and Ethiopia’s federation is still full of numbskulls.

Lol, ok fair...

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Wasn’t it you who said yesterday that Cheruiyot would be the premiere 1K runner in the world, when healthy? I tend to agree. You might be right that his nagging injury problem might be more detrimental at a shorter distance, but he did run 3:29.0 flat for silver, not like he bombed or anything...

Not sure why you’d expect Giles to be a greater factor than 6th. Sure, it might be his ideal distance, but dude failed to make the 800 final, and here he’d be up against the stronger of the 800 men and the faster 1500 men, no lack of competition. 6th would be pretty good, I’d think.

Yes, 100% my concern for him to succeed with a bum hamstring. We saw in his 800m run last year when he ran 1:46 not far removed (on both sides) from solid 1500 performances. I think the injury at shorter race distance is a big problem.

For Giles, it's really his ideal distance. He's really not quick enough for the 800 to me. He's a fair kicker and I think his tactics (patiently sit-and-kick) would be viable in 1000 prelims and the final. I think no Korir is quite helpful. But yeah 4th or 5th for me.

Also, big snub alert! Jesus Tonatiu Lopez of Mexico has to be somewhere here. Could be the 500 here? 46.6 PB/1:15.94/1:43.44 on high school track. Also could be a contender for the 1,000.

As I noted in other threads a highly unlucky semis draw, I think he was one of the 5 best at 800 who just ran into Dobek and Korir in his semi.

1:04.73 might be conservative for Mu. She went through 500 m at 1:09 Indoors en route to 600 m 2 years ago when she could not break 2:00 for 800 m (her best 800 m that season was 2:03.98 and she only got to 2:01 Outdoors). I would also think she would be more than 0.4 faster than Muhammed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eds6nqrMafY